Both Sabato and Rothenberg have AR-4 as safe REPUBLICAN now.
I wouldn’t have thought so, I fully expect to win but I’d still give the rats a sliver of a chance.
But I won’t argue with with them on that!!!!!
I will argue with a bunch of their other rankings. I think both are being too charitable to the other side and putting too many GOP seats in play.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-houses-15-closest-contests/
Sabato is fixating on a mere 15 seats which he calls tossups and said he expects the rats to win of 10 them (I don’t) and that will net them just 3 seats. But he says even a “Romney romp” wouldn’t guarantee that we gain a mere 5 seats.
Sabato I think is just a moron,. He has Hochul and McIntyre not only winning but he doesn’t even rank those as tossups.
I am not an “expert” but I consider myself a skilled amateur and while I have yet to do a comprehensive state by state look I see very little net partisan change happening, which both experts seem to agree with. Unlike them though I think we are as likely to gain 5 as to lose 5.
And I think the rat’s actually getting to 218 is all but impossible. +10 seems to be the high limit for them unless circumstances change drastically.
Prior to his time as a political analyst, Sabato worked for nine years with [very leftist] Virginia Democratic politician Henry Howell.
A fiery populist, Howell assailed Big Business, particularly banks, insurance companies, and monopolies. A favorite target was Dominion Virginia Power, then known as VEPCO, which Howell claimed stood for "Very Expensive Power Company." A believer in the right to organize, he often attempted to repeal Virginia's right-to-work law.
If the categories (in order from worst to best) are safe Dem, Dem favored, lean Dem, tilt Dem, tossup, tilt R, lean R, R favored and safe R, I would say that McIntyre’s NC-07 should be tilt R (and may be lean R before it’s over) and Hochsul’s NY-26 should be R favored.
But I agree, AR-04 should be no better than R favored (same with AR-01, IMHO).