[Political Junkie Too]

I'm a little late with my Rasmussen analysis of polls, but here is the combined results of the changes over the last two weeks of polling.

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Below are the states that are still in the polling margin of error. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll, and the second number is the separation from Obama's result.

In Arizona, the race tightens as Obama loses 8.7% to Romney's gain of 0.3%, making this race now a tie. Similarly in Iowa, Obama falls 7.9% while Romney gains 2.6%, putting this race back on the board.The pattern repeats in Michigan, as Obama loses 7.3% as Romney gains 1.1%, putting Michigan back within the margin of error. In Missouri, Obama falls by 3% while Romnay gains 1%. Virginia is the only state where Obama held some ground, gaining 3% to Romney's gain of 2%, making this state a tie. But the pattern repeats again in Wisconsin, where Obama loses 5% as Romney gains 2%, giving Romney the lead here as well.

Watch List:

• Arizona: No Poll (R +8.5%)
• Colorado: +0.3% (R +0%)
• Florida: No Poll (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%)
• Indiana: No Poll (R +6%)
• Iowa: +2.6% (R +1%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Michigan: +1.1% (R -8%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Missouri: +1% (R +5%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
• Nevada: No Poll (R -8%)
• North Carolina: No Poll (R +8%)
• North Dakota: No Poll (R +8.7%)
• Ohio: No Poll (R +2%)
• Pennsylvania: No Poll (R -6%)
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - just within the default margin of error
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%)
• Virginia: +2% (R +0%)
• Wisconsin: +2% (R +3%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
11-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
18-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
25-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%

And in the Senate... things aren't looking as good. The Republican lead is slipping, and chances of getting 51 seats has fallen below 50%.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

In Missouri where their primary has not happened yet, Democrat McCaskill is losing by 12% to her top Republican contender, so this race drops off of the watch list. In Ohio, both candidates gained, Democrat Brown getting 3% to Republican Mandel's 1%. In Virginia, Republican Allen continues to fall against Democrat Kaine, losing another 2% to Kaine's gain of 1%, putting Kaine in the lead.

Watch List:

• Arizona 1: No Poll (R +17%) - waiting for primary results
• Indiana 2: No Poll (R +0%)
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
• Missouri 2: +2% (R +12%) - drops out of the margin of error.
• New Mexico 1: No Poll (R -4%)
• New York 1: No Poll (R -24%) - waiting for primary results
• Ohio 1: +1% (R -5%)
• Pennsylvania 1: No Poll (R -7%)
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: -2% (R -2%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Prob ability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
11-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
18-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
25-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3

-PJ

[Alas Babylon!]

Wow! Excellent analysis and I hope you keep them coming. I hope you have your own periodic threads showing so!

I also hope that the models are slightly wrong. Whether the polls show an even split between dems versus Pubbies, or Independents, I really do believe it will all come down to turnout, and democratic turnout will be dismal.

Can anyone tell me what the dems voters can be enthused about for this election?

[MNJohnnie]

Of course this is based on the assumption that the polling is accurate and not as grotesquely inaccurate as the Wisconsin recall polls. I suspect 2012 will be like 1980. A year where the pollsters are left red faced on Election eve trying to explain why their projections are so far off from reality.

[rodguy911]

These stats are all going to change when Sarah Palin goes into action!!! We will win the Senate going away!