[Alas Babylon!]

As always, soliciting FReeper comments, observations, and opinions.

[Alas Babylon!]

This is the Sunday Morning Talk Show Thread Ping List! If you want to be on it, reply to this post or FReepmail me (in case I miss it). If you want to be taken off, simply send me a FReepmail.

[Morgan in Denver]

Good morning and thanks again for your efforts and the thread. Looks like we’ll be abused by David Plouffe this morning whether or not we like it. Along with the rest of the lineup, it’s going to be a boring and long morning, IMHO.

[Paine in the Neck]

Axelrod did so well last week as Obama’s explainer that he’s vanished and Plouffffffe is pinch-hitting.

[Road Warrior ‘04]

Looks like Plouffe is out there on every network doing damage control!

[Political Junkie Too]

I'm a little late with my Rasmussen analysis of polls, but here is the combined results of the changes over the last two weeks of polling.

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Below are the states that are still in the polling margin of error. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll, and the second number is the separation from Obama's result.

In Arizona, the race tightens as Obama loses 8.7% to Romney's gain of 0.3%, making this race now a tie. Similarly in Iowa, Obama falls 7.9% while Romney gains 2.6%, putting this race back on the board.The pattern repeats in Michigan, as Obama loses 7.3% as Romney gains 1.1%, putting Michigan back within the margin of error. In Missouri, Obama falls by 3% while Romnay gains 1%. Virginia is the only state where Obama held some ground, gaining 3% to Romney's gain of 2%, making this state a tie. But the pattern repeats again in Wisconsin, where Obama loses 5% as Romney gains 2%, giving Romney the lead here as well.

Watch List:

• Arizona: No Poll (R +8.5%)
• Colorado: +0.3% (R +0%)
• Florida: No Poll (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%)
• Indiana: No Poll (R +6%)
• Iowa: +2.6% (R +1%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Michigan: +1.1% (R -8%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Missouri: +1% (R +5%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
• Nevada: No Poll (R -8%)
• North Carolina: No Poll (R +8%)
• North Dakota: No Poll (R +8.7%)
• Ohio: No Poll (R +2%)
• Pennsylvania: No Poll (R -6%)
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - just within the default margin of error
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%)
• Virginia: +2% (R +0%)
• Wisconsin: +2% (R +3%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
11-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
18-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
25-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%

And in the Senate... things aren't looking as good. The Republican lead is slipping, and chances of getting 51 seats has fallen below 50%.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

In Missouri where their primary has not happened yet, Democrat McCaskill is losing by 12% to her top Republican contender, so this race drops off of the watch list. In Ohio, both candidates gained, Democrat Brown getting 3% to Republican Mandel's 1%. In Virginia, Republican Allen continues to fall against Democrat Kaine, losing another 2% to Kaine's gain of 1%, putting Kaine in the lead.

Watch List:

• Arizona 1: No Poll (R +17%) - waiting for primary results
• Indiana 2: No Poll (R +0%)
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
• Missouri 2: +2% (R +12%) - drops out of the margin of error.
• New Mexico 1: No Poll (R -4%)
• New York 1: No Poll (R -24%) - waiting for primary results
• Ohio 1: +1% (R -5%)
• Pennsylvania 1: No Poll (R -7%)
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: -2% (R -2%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Prob ability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
11-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
18-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
25-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3

-PJ

[Diogenesis]

[StAnDeliver]

Plouffe? That means they want to downplay the unconstitutionality of Bobo's amnesty. He's usually gaffe-free. And easily cowed.

Which is why McCrisis is on DePressed. No chance Juan will criticize Bobo -- in fact, Gregory will press him to criticize Mittens.

[TomGuy]

McCain?

Graham?

Lieberman????

AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!

[StAnDeliver]

"David Plouffe, White House adviser; Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn.; former CIA Director Michael Hayden."

Lieberman is supposed to be the GOP rep to rebuff Plouffe? WTH? Wallace better be prepared to go hard.

Hayden is there to talk about drones, no doubt. Bucking for a slot in Mittens admin...

[TomGuy]

Humanity is an Unsustainable Danger to Earth’s Eco-System


==

Down with People!!!!!

lol

[Alas Babylon!]

I forgot to add—PLEASE watch Face The Nation. Romney’s on it, so it will no doubt be newsworthy.

Someone please report a play-by-play!

[TomGuy]

FNS

Plouffe: we have created over 4 million jobs in the last 26 months.

==

That equates to an average of 38,461 jobs per WEEK.

As of Thursday, the weekly NEW joblessness claims were back up to 380,000.

Team Obama keep saying they created over 4 million jobs. However, that equates to about 1 new job for every 10 jobs lost per WEEK.

That 4 million sounds impressive, until the numbers are broken down. Then 4 million is only about 10% of the number of jobs that needs to be created.

[Recovering Ex-hippie]

Meet the Depressed is a TOTAL COMMERCIAL for Obozo.

Good Lord, it is nauseating. the conservatives never get to say anything while the commercial runs. any critique of the Bozo is instantly reframed. Yeesh. Lots of “ha, ha, light joking.” guess that’s how we avoid taking a look at the Jerk.

[Recovering Ex-hippie]

I love it!

the Libs today on the shows are very anxious..Get Plouffe an IV drip with Valium!

The Maroon, editor of the Nation magazine, she actually said,”Its the consumers who create jobs!” HA HA HA. tHE HAVE NO CLUE AS TO HOW CAPITALISM WORKS.
then she goes on, about the
dream act was part of the dream...comparing it to the Emancipation Act..will corrects her it was part of the War Act.

Pawlenty on now...with Will.
Wow, in the last 4 minutes, they put Pawlenty on, stephy was afraid to have him on earlier.

My head is spinning...the stupidity of the Left, rather, the Ignorance is unbelievable.

And what is with Goolsby ‘s eyes. He is bizzare in his comments, not even rational.

[SERKIT]

We just watched an episode of “Veep”, now watching David Plouffe being interviewed. I think David is a cast member on “Veep”.

[Clint N. Suhks]

David Ploof is a lying Flucke!

[Uncle Chip]

Well the Fox News panel just unanimously applauded Obama’s amnesty plan -— surprise surprise