Can Any of These House Underdogs Survive?

Rothenberg Political Report ^ | 6/8/12 | Stuart Rothenberg

[randita]

Of the seats mentioned, the one I hope most turns GOP is Matheson’s. Mia Love would be a great addition to the House GOP contingent.

[lookout88]

Dold is a sissy. It wouldnt matter much

[concordgrape]

I am in Dold’s distict. I will be skipping the vote in that race. “Bipartisan Bob” is the waste of a perfectly good “R”.

[lookout88]

Me too, Arlington Heights. I can’t stand the guy. What a jellyfish

[TNCMAXQ]

Would be great to see a black conservative woman in the House.

I don’t know much about Rep Bass from NH but if NH has gone so far to the left that they elect another Dem to the House then I don’t see how Romney is going to carry the state, or how it can ever turn back to its Republican roots.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks randita.

[Impy]

Barrow and Dold are meat. Some freepers in Dold-land on this thread saying they’re not voting for him. I would but I don’t think he can win that seat.

Schilling has a shot but not a great one. (burn in hell Pat Quinn and Mike Madigan and Scott Cohen) The rat candidate underwhelms me (as does the one for the Dold seat, he won the primary cause he had the most normal name) though she’s okay looking for a Stalinist witch.

I think Love will beat Matheson but he could win, Mormon Romney on the top of the ticket helps.

Bass is not an “underdog”, that race is a tossup.

Not mentioned here is another IL Republican, Joe Walsh. His district is better than any of the other vulnerable gerrymandered IL seats but he’s weak and most people think he has no chance.

[Impy]

Bass had nothing to do with Romney. The state will be close (unless Romney pulls ahead). Romney will probably carry the first district and Obama the second.

As to the Republican roots, the state leg is a GOP supermajority again after 2010 and I think we will take back the Governorship.

NH is a swing state, not a rat state.

[jmaroneps37]

In THIS cycle in New Hampshire talk about a Democrat defeating any sitting Republican is sophistry designed to fill up white space.Stuie doesn't want to acknowledge that Obama is on his way to pulling the whole Democrat party down at every level in almost every state.

[PhilCollins]

I live in Rep. Dold’s new district, and I think that he’ll barely win, with about 50.5% of the vote. In his new district, the majority of the state legislators and county commissioners are Republicans.

Rep. Walsh will easily win. All of the voters, of the new 8th Dist., have a republican congressman, now, Walsh, Dold, Hultgren, or Roskam. The majority of those voters have a republican state senator, Murphy, Pankau, or Dillard.

[GOPsterinMA]

Slight correction: Charlie Bass is a toss-off.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I don’t see how the RAT Barrow can survive in the redrawn GA-12. Democrats are delusional if they think that the liberal-to-moderate Barrow can get enough conservative votes to make it close.

As for the IL races, I would rank the endangered Republican incumbents, in order of most likely to least likely to survive, as follows:

Biggert
Dold
Schilling
Walsh

I’d place Biggert’s odds of winning at 55%, Dold’s at 45%, Schilling’s at 40% and Walsh’s at 10%. Walsh’s CD is the least Dem of the four, but he was a fluke winner in 2010 in a GOP district and is a terrible fit for the new district.

As for Charlie Bass, I agree that reports of his demise are exaggerated. Yes, the district leans a bit Dem, and he is facing an extremely well funded challenger, but Romney could feasibly carry the district and Bass has at least even odds of holding on.

[AuH2ORepublican]

BTW, the RAT candidate with the most “normal” name won in IL-10, while the RAT candidate with the sexiest name (Cheri Bustos) won in IL-17—Bustos means “breasts” in Spanish. http://www.cheribustos.com/

[R W Reactionairy]

Getting rid of Matheson will make the Dems easier to despise across the board. If he were a Republican, I don't think I would even call him a RINO. Oh well.

He stayed with his father's party and it will probably cost him.

[Impy]

I heard of people with the surname “Foot” and “Head” and “Hand” but that’s odd.

Doesn’t quite live up to her name, it is a married name after all. ;D

[Impy]

I don’t think anyone else on the planet thinks he will “easily” win.

The district is worse but it’s still okay, I’d bet Bush still carried in 2004. But he is weak, Only the size of the wave in 2010 pulled him across, and if anything he is in a weaker position this time.

We should be thinking of who can win it back in 2014.

Would love to be wrong.

[AuH2ORepublican]

You’re right, Bustos is her married name. Her maiden name is Callahan (which, as far as I know, is not an Irish Gaelic term for “rack” : ), and she comes from a very politically connected family of liberal Democrats (with close ties to Paul Simon and Dick Durbin): http://qconline.com/archives/qco/display.php?id=591758

[Jim Noble]

Bass is the instructional video for GOPe. I will be delighted if he loses.

[PhilCollins]

In 2010, Walsh won because of the Green Party candidate. Walsh beat Bean by about 300 votes, and the Green Party candidate got about 3000 votes.

However, his new district has a higher percentage of Republicans. Why do you think that Walsh might lose? His new district has few democrat elected officials.