Virgil is a former VA rep...Constitution Party
Tom H. = Tom Hoefling, a FREEPER [Eternal Vigilance] Tom Hoefling for President
What are their chances of winning?
#1 You know, "chances" is a horseracing term...where they pay not only the winners, but to place as a runner-up (& if 8 or more horses, to "show" as well)...Unfortunately, for POTUS, there is no partial salvation in finishing as "runner-up." The 2nd-place finisher's vote counted for no more than the 3rd or 4th-place finisher.
While the race is certainly "wide open" now...(For example, Seek and Find posted this thread this a.m.: Rasmussen: Three-Way Race: Romney 44%, Obama 39%, Ron Paul 13%)...
So...given a...
...a Ron Paul third-party entry...
...coupled with more voters abandoning the GoP for other waters (Goode/Hoefling)
...coupled with the MSM expose' of Romney & Mormonism for 6 months straight...
...= a "formula" where I believe Romney will be WAY down in the polls come late October [unless the economy tanks even more significantly!]
Therefore, the Q isn't "What is a third party chance of winning?" as of May, 2012...
...Rather, it's "What are Romney's chances of winning?" as of late October/early Nov???
If his chances THEN are slim, all the more reason to vote third-party even for among the Romney voters and Romney supporters (converts).
#2 If you total ALL the FREEPER votes in states like NY, NJ, CA, OR, WA, IL, & other liberal states, even if 100% of FREEPERS voted for Romney in those states, Romney wouldn't win...
Think about that FREEPERS...Don't vote for Romney if you're NOT in a swing state!
We should start a movement that sweeps the nation whereby we advocate that as many as possible GoP voters in liberal states abandon Romney! [To send a message to the GoP-e]
Also, if FREEPERS exist in states in which Romney will win easily, their vote is unnecessary as well. (It won't make a difference)
Is it really a revelation to you that, as of now, “ABO = Romney”? That’s pretty sad.
Well, thank you for reinforcing my point. I clearly told Seize the Carp that "ABO" is a euphemism for Romney voters AND Romney supporters AND Rombots...and he didn't seem to agree that Romney voters and Romney supporters and Rombots would all (as 3 separate groups) seek to find FR "safe haven" under the umbrella of "ABO." [Note his response: Your ad hominem attack on my choice of words and your insinuation that I am a Romney “supporter” or “Rombot”..."]
So there ya go, FSE...there's at least a partial denial even NOW from STC that it's a euphemism for (some of?) those 3 groups!
It’s a fool’s argument to insist that ABO means anything but “Romney.” Yes, “chances” may be a horse-racing term, but it still fits. I’ve no doubt Tom Hoefling and Virgil Goode are outstanding conservatives, but eventually reality has to rear its ugly head.
I don’t like Romney in the least and I loathe Obama, but between the two you have massive campaign machines backed by a billion-plus dollars (far more than that when you consider Obama’s using tax dollars for campaigning), strong press presences, and built-in national name recognition. Add to that that third parties are easily demonized as being the home of fruits and freaks by both liberals and conservatives (and ESPECIALLY so by Republicans and Democrats), it looks like people just spending energy on a cause that was lost before it began.
However, maybe I’m wrong—God knows I’d be delighted to be proved wrong in this, but I really don’t think so.
All I can say is “good luck” to the folks who want to take a stab at it.
None!...October surprise is coming...war with Iran...Israel just unnited both of their "parties" to be united rather than wait til Septemeber elections..now off...in order to form a united front.
Nathanbedford has apiece that clearly explains why Obama will win...and of course why Obama is so arrogant about winning....a relevant article IMP.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2854282/posts