If the incumbent is polling higher than the challenger, even if under 50%, the incumbent wins 80% of the time.
That's a whole lot different than the conventional wisdom being bandied about by Clinton insider turned Republican Trojan Horse, Dick Morris.
i think you really have to be soft in the head to think romney stands any chance of winning in november. he will get slammed harder than mccain did. the guy just isn’t likeable, he’s totally craven on conservative issues, and he doesn’t provide enough of a positive distinction between him and obama. romney’s campaign is doa. absolutely no one cares.
LOL. This is a “most people lie about sex” article by the NYT to reassure Obama’s supporters that he can still win.
They are the enemies of human rights, human dignity, self-determination, rational thought, and the quest for meaning in existence. They are the antithesis of intellectual, as they are blinded to learning and progressing by the delusions promulgated by their pathetic ideologies. They are hurtful, destructive, and mislead.
This piece by the NYT is designed to engender hope within the ranks of the left, who are demoralized by the fact that their ideology has been proved once again to be stupid and ineffective, and by the fact that their manufactured figurehead is polling poorly. Don't be deceived. Each and every time the left tries to demoralize you just remember that they are doing this because you are kicking their a**. The proper response is to kick harder - figuratively of course.
Wow. What a revelation. The guy who gets more votes wins. Amazing.
Hah, this statistical chicanery is laughable even knowing that it’s the Slimes. Take a specific statistic, include seemingly-related results for what are really not related events, and use the now-inverted, wholly invalid results to refute the original specific statistic. Numbers don’t lie!
Translation: a 2nd term for Barack the Usurper is a fait accompli, and the NYT is damn sure going to do whatever they can to make it happen.
The NYT: Doing their daily level best to make sure no one can ever accuse them of being impartial or objective.
As there's no such thing as gerrymandering in House races, there's no possibility that an incumbent with low approval ratings would win anyway. Otherwise this data would be statistically suspect.
Dick Morris is basically an idiot. He has some interesting insight once in awhile, but he is mostly just found a market for telling conservatives what they want to hear at this point. He is also the king of revisionist history. Dick makes incorrect predictions constantly and then goes back and qualifies his previous claims in order to say he wasn't wrong. I think BoR has won like a dozen steak dinners from Morris because of how often Dick is flat out wrong.
Obama plans to steal it!
Presidents do not.
Presidents do not.
Graveyard, meet Whistle.
Wishful thinking from Nate Rust of the NY Slimes.
LOL. Written right before the massive shellacking the Democrat incumbents got in 2010, used to calm their fears about losing big.
They lost big.
Nothing is set in stone, but will be a close election in 2012, just going by the base of support on each side.
All we have to do to let Obama destroy our country with leftist policies? Not stop his re-election.
I knew this particular bit of propaganda was coming out soon as Obama languishes below 50 percent. And voila — here it is, right on schedule.
Thanks for another Nate the Nut fantasy.
When Nate dies, physicists will be bidding on his head so they can perform experiments in a total vacuum.
POLITICS
Updated May 3, 2012, 7:58 p.m. ET
Math Challenge for Romney
more in Politics & Policy »
BY NEIL KING JR. AND LAURA MECKLER
Mitt Romney’s campaign says it has many routes to the 270 votes needed for victory in the Electoral College this fall. But almost all of them rely on a difficult feat: Winning at least six states that went for President Barack Obama in 2008.
Spot Mr. Romney the five biggest swing states the Democrat won four years ago—Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana—and the Republican still wouldn’t be guaranteed the White House. To win, he would need to also carry at least one other state that went to Mr. Obama four years ago.