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Incumbents Polling Below 50 Percent Often Win Re-Election, Despite Conventional Wisdom
NYT ^ | Oct 2010 | NATE SILVER

Posted on 05/03/2012 10:50:28 AM PDT by xzins

If you combine the three types of incumbents — House, Senate, governor — they had a record of 66-17, which equates to a winning percentage of 80 percent. Depending on how you define the term, they may not have been “safe” for re-election — but certainly, most were favorites.

There is also not any particular evidence that, as Mr. Trende suggests, the majority of the undecided vote broke against the incumbents. On average, the incumbent candidates led by 8.1 points in the polls with 30 days to go; they won their elections by an average of 7.2 points. That’s not a huge difference, needless to say.

So, is there anything at all to the theory? A couple of qualifiers are in order:

First, as I stated above, if an incumbent is trailing in the polls, that’s a whole different matter. An incumbent is usually going to lose if he’s at 43 percent in the polls, and his opponent is at 48 percent. His problem, however, is less that he’s polling at 43 percent — and more that his opponent has a better number!

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: elections; romney; romneytruthfile
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So, the real truth is that incumbents polling less than 50% prior to the election do not always lose. The issue is whether or not their opponent is polling higher than them.

If the incumbent is polling higher than the challenger, even if under 50%, the incumbent wins 80% of the time.

That's a whole lot different than the conventional wisdom being bandied about by Clinton insider turned Republican Trojan Horse, Dick Morris.

1 posted on 05/03/2012 10:50:34 AM PDT by xzins
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To: xzins

i think you really have to be soft in the head to think romney stands any chance of winning in november. he will get slammed harder than mccain did. the guy just isn’t likeable, he’s totally craven on conservative issues, and he doesn’t provide enough of a positive distinction between him and obama. romney’s campaign is doa. absolutely no one cares.


2 posted on 05/03/2012 10:56:35 AM PDT by msimpson
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To: xzins

LOL. This is a “most people lie about sex” article by the NYT to reassure Obama’s supporters that he can still win.


3 posted on 05/03/2012 10:58:17 AM PDT by kabar
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To: xzins
Just get everyone you know that supports your views out to vote, and realize that we are in a political war against the left. If we win the election, that is just the beginning. That should serve as an infusion of energy to continue to use each and every waking breath to fight, defeat, and humiliate the left, until they self-destruct and no longer exist.

They are the enemies of human rights, human dignity, self-determination, rational thought, and the quest for meaning in existence. They are the antithesis of intellectual, as they are blinded to learning and progressing by the delusions promulgated by their pathetic ideologies. They are hurtful, destructive, and mislead.

This piece by the NYT is designed to engender hope within the ranks of the left, who are demoralized by the fact that their ideology has been proved once again to be stupid and ineffective, and by the fact that their manufactured figurehead is polling poorly. Don't be deceived. Each and every time the left tries to demoralize you just remember that they are doing this because you are kicking their a**. The proper response is to kick harder - figuratively of course.

4 posted on 05/03/2012 11:00:14 AM PDT by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: xzins

Wow. What a revelation. The guy who gets more votes wins. Amazing.


5 posted on 05/03/2012 11:03:34 AM PDT by EternalVigilance (Romney Republicanism: Leave your principles by the door. You won't be needing them any more.)
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To: kabar

This is an old article if you look at the date. It far pre-dates this elections cycle.

The numbers, though, have nothing to do with anything other than those who were or were not polling below 50% prior to an election. It takes actual cases and adds them up.


6 posted on 05/03/2012 11:04:45 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Obama Disses the Operators Who Took Out Bin Laden in Afghan!)
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To: xzins

Hah, this statistical chicanery is laughable even knowing that it’s the Slimes. Take a specific statistic, include seemingly-related results for what are really not related events, and use the now-inverted, wholly invalid results to refute the original specific statistic. Numbers don’t lie!


7 posted on 05/03/2012 11:04:58 AM PDT by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: xzins
Incumbents Polling Below 50 Percent Often Win Re-Election, Despite Conventional Wisdom

Translation: a 2nd term for Barack the Usurper is a fait accompli, and the NYT is damn sure going to do whatever they can to make it happen.

8 posted on 05/03/2012 11:05:50 AM PDT by backwoods-engineer (I will vote against ANY presidential candidate who had non-citizen parents.)
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To: EternalVigilance

???

Did you read this article?


9 posted on 05/03/2012 11:05:54 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Obama Disses the Operators Who Took Out Bin Laden in Afghan!)
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To: xzins

The NYT: Doing their daily level best to make sure no one can ever accuse them of being impartial or objective.


10 posted on 05/03/2012 11:08:52 AM PDT by Lazamataz (To the wall, street occupiers!!!!!)
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To: xzins
If you combine the three types of incumbents — House, Senate, governor — they had a record of 66-17

As there's no such thing as gerrymandering in House races, there's no possibility that an incumbent with low approval ratings would win anyway. Otherwise this data would be statistically suspect.

11 posted on 05/03/2012 11:10:39 AM PDT by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: jiggyboy; P-Marlowe; wmfights; reaganaut; SoConPubbie

80% of incumbents leading their opponents, even if polling under 50%, won their re-election campaign.

That’s just a matter of adding up the numbers of those who fell in those categories.

It basically says that the leader wins and the follower loses.

That isn’t rocket science folks.

The notion that Dickie Morris, Clintoon’s sidekick, pushes is that losing in the polling should be ignored.

Which makes more sense? Really. That the loser is winning or that the loser is losing? Obviously, it’s #2.

If you’re losing then you damn sure better be worried about it, and not be off drinking kool aid with dickie morris.


12 posted on 05/03/2012 11:11:27 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Obama Disses the Operators Who Took Out Bin Laden in Afghan!)
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To: xzins
That's a whole lot different than the conventional wisdom being bandied about by Clinton insider turned Republican Trojan Horse, Dick Morris.

Dick Morris is basically an idiot. He has some interesting insight once in awhile, but he is mostly just found a market for telling conservatives what they want to hear at this point. He is also the king of revisionist history. Dick makes incorrect predictions constantly and then goes back and qualifies his previous claims in order to say he wasn't wrong. I think BoR has won like a dozen steak dinners from Morris because of how often Dick is flat out wrong.

13 posted on 05/03/2012 11:12:43 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: xzins
Winning is for Dudley Do Rights.

Obama plans to steal it!

14 posted on 05/03/2012 11:12:46 AM PDT by RoosterRedux
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To: Lazamataz

The NYT spinning and whistling past the graveyard.

Romney sucks but IMO, Obama is a millsotne around the rats collective (ist) neck this Nov.


15 posted on 05/03/2012 11:14:23 AM PDT by Leto (Damn shame Sarah didn't run the Presidency was there for the taking)
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To: jiggyboy

US House races, US Senate races, and United States Governors races: the results are not hard to find.

And we’re looking for those in which the incumbent was polling below 50% prior to the election. Again, not hard to find.

Adding and subtracting: not hard to do.

Result: like on a math test, what did the calculation say?


16 posted on 05/03/2012 11:15:06 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Obama Disses the Operators Who Took Out Bin Laden in Afghan!)
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To: Longbow1969

Hey....did you hear that?....We agreed on something!

(Someone should be throwing a party...LOL)


17 posted on 05/03/2012 11:17:19 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Obama Disses the Operators Who Took Out Bin Laden in Afghan!)
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To: xzins

Presidents do not.


18 posted on 05/03/2012 11:17:23 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: xzins

Presidents do not.


19 posted on 05/03/2012 11:18:25 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: EternalVigilance
Wow. What a revelation. The guy who gets more votes wins. Amazing.

Except if your name is Al Franken.

20 posted on 05/03/2012 11:18:59 AM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Obama vs. Romney: Zero x Zero = Zero.)
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