Skip to comments.Election 2012: The Core Four States: Obama 46%, Romney 43%
Posted on 05/03/2012 8:37:56 AM PDT by xzins
With the Republican primary race all but settled, President Obama still holds a slight lead over likely GOP nominee Mitt Romney in combined polling of the key swing states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.
New Rasmussen Reports telephone surveying of Likely Voters in the so-called Core Four states finds that Obama picks up 46% support to Romneys 43%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The survey of 1,271 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on April 16-30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. .Rasmussen subscribers can log in to read the rest of this article.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
This suggests that Santorum's base -- a large pro-life, pro marriage social conservative base -- did not transfer their loyalty to Romney.
As predicted, Romney stands a very large chance of losing the social conservative base.
If true I will forever blame the social conservatives for further burying our cause. The newly appointed SUPREMES will forever hail wrath upon them.....
Yeah, yeah, Romney is losing six months out. Fact is, the Kenyan Commie isn’t polling at 50%. And any incumbent not at that mark is in trouble.
Typical Republican! Already ginning up the “Blame the SocialCons”. It will be Mitts fault if he loses because he is a poor campaigner who is sodden and has no personality along with him going moderate instead promoting conservatism which he is incapable of doing
They don’t care. They are not permitted by faith and conscience to support a pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage candidate.
Everyone knew they were a large voting block.
I for one will be campaigning against both Romney and Obama in Ohio and campaigning for Virgil Goode, the Constitution Party Candidate, a true conservative!
Virgil Goodes’ Stand on the Issues at link:
Exactly...he is under 50% at a time when the media is talking about Osama Bin Laden day and night...
I think Obama is in trouble.
Ping to article.
Romney already showing weak in major electoral states.
The fears of conservatives are being realized in romney’s weakness.
He will reject the base and campaign for liberal votes. That has been the prediction. It makes sense for a liberal such as him.
As MrR says, “Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.” It is sad to see that happening here on FR, so many compromising and just falling in line which is what Mitt has been counting on from the beginning. They are playing into the liberal’s hands.
Well, he`s your problem now GOP. YOU try drag the leftist over the finish line.
I have stopped giving a darn about the general and have already chalked it up as a loss no matter who wins. My fear is that Romney will crater so badly that he will crush the GOP down ticket.
Yes, a war is remains to be fought to defeat Obama, but Obama is not winning at this time. He is at 46% with 4% undecided. He would have to win all of the undecideds to get to 50%.
Additionally, there are 7% for ‘another candidate’. There is no ‘other candidate’ on the left to siphon votes off. These are conservatives or moderates who are not yet over the bruising primary. Some are likely Paul fans who are unlikely to pull the lever for Obama. They will go third party, stay home, or decide Romney and the GOP is better than Obama.
I was told yesterday that history shows that ANY President’s poll numbers at THIS point in the election process (May)...predict where he will be in November....evidently the numbers won’t rise from here....for Obomba....that means...he will stay at about 46% (where this person told me he is now...FWIW)
What's your solution? We can't control who the nominee is at this stage. Mitt will be the nominee at the convention, and it is realistically Romney or Obama being sworn in next January. I understand all the pitfalls of a Romney presidency...I am not excited about it at all. The devastation of another term of Obama is not an option. 2-3 Left-wing Supreme Justices, further economic devastation, permanent Obamacare just to name a few.
That's why I'm putting the emphasis on the down ticket races. Our goal is not just to defeat the particular big government liberal currently occupying our White House, it's to defeat big government liberalism. If the choice really is Obama/Romney, then we cannot defeat liberalism at the executive level and we must defeat it in Congress. We need, far more than ever before, to get every conservative to the polls in November so that we can repeat the Congressional landslide of 2010. We need a House that will propose and pass responsible spending bills with a balanced budget. We need a Senate that will reject liberal activist judicial nominees and demand a judiciary that defers to the Constitution of the United States as the "Supreme Law of the Land". It's our job as voters to make that happen in spite of the GOP-e shenanigans.
OK...so what do we do now? We didn’t manage to get the GOP to nominate a conservative, so do we vote third-party, or do we resign ourselves to the moderate?
I don’t have the answer, but I can understand the reasoning behind voting for Romney to get Obama out.
I mean, going from radical leftist to managerial statist is a bit of an improvement, I suppose.
Obama at 46% is still a disaster for him.
Oh, somebody call the whaaaaambulance on this one.
Romney is a liberal. I don't care how big of an R anyone places after his name, the guy is a say anything politician that goes against the very fiber of being Conservative and you want to hold OTHERS responsible for that? Nice projections there, rino.
Obama doesnt need 50% in November
In 1992 Clinton got 43% Bush I had 36% and Perot got 19%
The undecided are probably Conservatives and if they wont go for the liberal Romney they sure wont go for his twin Obama...
All Obama needs is what he has now...
and his lead will get larger after the convention should Romney manage to bulldoze his way to the finish..
I am voting for Virgil Goode, leaving the GOP to die a painful death. I am voting my conscience and trusting God.
Like Daniel under Nebuchenezzar, I will stand by my faith and principles and pray.
If we can get conservatives to support a real candidate, then we take away the power of the GOP elite. If we don’t take down that oligarchy we will keep getting more and more liberals posing as Republicans. Every election in the last 20 years they have put up more and more liberal candidates. They need to learn their lesson and that will only happen if we make them irrelevant.
See post #20.
If true I will forever blame the social conservatives for further burying our cause.
and what “cause” would that be ???
The South will rise again ???
Well we didnt for Romney ..
The Moderate Progressive Movement with Willard Mitt Romney as your leader ???
Yeah I can see the takeover by the Kennedy Wing of the Republican Party as Congressman Duncan Hunter called Willie Mitty and his followers...
Willie learned his dirty tricks from his father in 1964 when George betrayed the Republican nominee Barry Goldwater...
After Goldwater lost, his good friend Ronald Reagan said “we are not going to turn the Republican Party over to the Moderates” meaning George Romney...
As sonny boy Willard was with his father when George stomped out of the convention after getting only 40 votes to the 800+ of Goldwater and swore to cause him to lose, Willie Mitty knows how to destroy the Conservative base and he has no loyalty to the Republicans..
So here you are the next generation of RomneyBots are still dirty with your “cause”
Still blaming the Conservatives and foaming at the mouth to make us pay...
Still enemies of Ronald Reagan...
So Establishment decide, do you want social conservative votes or not?
If you decide no, that is fine but your party is going to be in the losing column for a long time because you don’t have enough moderates or liberals in the party yet to compensate for the losses you would incur with the social conservatives being kicked out.
You want the social conservatives votes but want them to shut up, have no opinion, have absolutely no input or participation should you win, how does that work?
Do you require the same of other groups in the so-called “everyone’s welcome Big Tent”?
I have no intention of voting for Mitt.
Good for you! Neither do I.
Incumbents polling below 50% often win re-election despite conventional wisdom
Check out this thread.
Can he raise enough money, though? While campaigns should not be about who can raise the most money, you can’t get a message out without money.
New York Times psychological operations. The first sentence gives it away: this is “all incumbents” combined.
Presidents polling below 50% are in danger. Big time.
Not that you are in this camp, but I find it almost funny that some are soooo anxious to see Obama win....just to be able to boast about Romney’s loss.
Frankly, I despised John McInsane last cycle, but I still worked for him, because as kooky as he is, he would’ve been better for America than the Kenyan Communist.
If I read this correctly, the poll was taken by a combined amount of people from all states, just one problem for the left. Each state is won or lost on it’s own, not combined.
So this is a crap poll, taken in a way to make the left believe that Obama has an edge.
Mark my words, Obama will lose on a landslide, and I am not even voting for a president this year, but my vote is not needed. I will vote for republican all the way down the remainder of the ticket however to ensure a strong conservative Congress.
Hussien’s in big trouble. I have noticed that whenever he gives a speech or pressers, his numbers go down. The only time his numbers go up is when he is out of view on vacation. What will he have to do during the campaign season?? Speak and campaign and a lot of it. People are tired of him and tired of his “blame everyone else” message. Him being below 50 means he is in very big trouble.
Undecideds always break away from the incumbent. This is bad news for Obama.
Maybe it’s because we’re tired of being told how to vote by our “betters” in New York and Cali. Screw you.
Not for President.
“It will be Mitts fault if he loses because he is a poor campaigner who is sodden and has no personality along with him going moderate instead promoting conservatism which he is incapable of doing”
“Hype and Blame”
would McCain have had such a comeback to BO’s campaign slogan of “forward”?
The GOP sure screwed the pooch this time. But hey!!! That primary with all of its mud-slinging and BS ads was a lot of fun! Barry and the ‘RATS are laughing their Marxist asses off at us. We sure “vetted” our guys!!! We dumbass Republicans should have more primaries! Lots of fun! Morons.
Here we go again. OK - It is likely voters... No change for that.... “Other Candidate” LOL 7 will go to 2, 5 undecided there plus 4 undecided otherwise that is 9 % undecided. Starting at 46-43 Obama the 9% undecided goes 6-3 for Romney, end result, 49-49 with 2% other. Obama wins because of the graveyard vote, car trunk ballot boxes, and lefty judge vote ‘finds’. No other reason. 49.01-48.99
That's fair. I share those feelings to a point, but my approach is that 2012 is a year where we can hopefully get a Senate majority and add more conservatives to the House, and that I would rather have Romney there to sign the bills, and not Obama there to veto them. I am far less thrilled about Romney as president than Romney as candidate, so I understand your feelings.
Personally, if Romney loses, I will be throwing in the towel on the GOP. They forced this on the voters because of their faulty view that somehow a moderate is a better option than a principled conservative. If they lose this one, in a year where a GOP win should be a shoe-in, that's the end of it for me.
That’s from the RNC not the Romney campaign althought this is good
“This suggests that ...”
you are letting your bias create meaningless conclusions over one of many polls. Santorum did not lead Obama in the vast majority of polls he was down vs Obama, and since he withdrew 3 weeks ago, speculation that a non-candidate would do better than Romney vs Obama is monday-morning QB’ing. Pointless.
“As predicted, Romney stands a very large chance of losing the social conservative base.”
As predicted, we become our own worst enemy sometimes.
How many social conservatives are going to be so stupid to want Obama to win? most will be more sensible than you assume. And if SoCons do bail, how tickled pink will you be when Obama wins?
The obama campaign appreciates your valiant effort to split and divide the conservative vote and suppress the votes needed for him to win in the crucial swing state of Ohio.
You can probably win a dinner with barack for your efforts. Salut!
“If we can get conservatives to support a real candidate, then we take away the power of the GOP elite.”
... and give it 100% to the liberal Democrat elite!
“I am voting for Virgil Goode, leaving the GOP to die a painful death. I am voting my conscience and trusting God.”
Voting 3rd party is trusting in, not God, but in liberal voters to decide the fate of America. I dont trust liberals.
Obama thanks you for doing nothing to stop his re-election.
Just imagine if Zero had an actual Conservative GOP opponent.
Wrong. Voting for the RINOS is trusting the liberals. Rolling over is how we got the GOPe that we have. I don’t trust liberals OR the GOP anymore.
Are you really so stupid to think Romney can beat Obama? The MSM is going to SLAUGHTER Romney, which is exactly why the liberals want Romney to be our nominee.
“Are you really so stupid to think Romney can beat Obama?”
Are you really so stupid to think Obama is unbeatable?
The election isnt until november, and its foolish to imagine the outcome is certain right now, with polls more or less neck-and-neck.
” The MSM is going to SLAUGHTER Romney,”
YAWN. The MSM viciously attacked and mocked Santorum and newt and Cain and Perry and ...
so what’s new?
Romney to his credit has been hitting back. They fired back when Obama flunkie went after Ann Romney for being a traditional stay-at-home mom. They hit back at Obama’s absurd claim that Romney wouldn’t have taken out Bin Laden. And they stole Carvilles line “It’s the economy ... and we’re not stupid.” you are underestimating the fight in Romney’s campaign.
“which is exactly why the liberals want Romney to be our nominee.”
Romney is our nominee. That race is over. It’s now Romney vs Obama.
This vote in November is about America, not about the GOP.
We have hundreds of other primaries in many other races to help define the GOP.
Voting 3rd party is throwing the election to liberal voters to decide the fate of America. It will let them re-elect Obama.
“This is not a choice between Mitt Romney and Ronald Reagan. This is a choice between Mitt Romney and the most radical, leftist president in American history,” - Newt Gingrich
Helping Obama get re-elected is what’s playing into the liberals hands.
“This is not a choice between Mitt Romney and Ronald Reagan. This is a choice between Mitt Romney and the most radical, leftist president in American history,” - Gingrich
Virgil Goode will do to the Republicans in Virgina what Ralph Nader did to the Democrats in Florida.
Virgil Goode won't get but a fraction of a percent of the national vote but in Virginia, where he was a former congressman and has name-recognition, he could conceivably peel five points away from Romney in this valuable and closely contested state. A 5 point handicap for Romney would be devastating. If the Republicans lose Virginia, they've lost the election.
And when this happens, you Virgil Goode supporters will be deserving of every last ounce of scorn that is heaped upon you.