Some explanation on special operations is needed to sort out the “he said, she said” cacophony going on.
There are many intel pursuits going on all the time on many HVT’s in safe houses all over AfPak. The HVT’s are almost always on the move between safe houses, very difficult to know when to pull the trigger.
After Tora Bora, UBL had three distinct safe havens, localized areas where a number of safe houses existed, fully stocked by some local and available 24/7.
UBL’s entire problem was the wives and kids, very easy to spot their movement. We knew the wives would constantly demand more comfort and stability. His youngest wife refused to live in caves and underground and actually left UBL and went back to Yemen until he agreed to leave Tora Bora at about the same time as our attack.
When UBL left Tora Bora because of the family’s complaints we knew he would be heading for a more urban area as soon as a big enough safe house could be built.
That took years for us to figure out because we needed a network of locals all over Pakistan, that were reliable, like doctors and lawyers, and well paid.
We found UBL not because intel pointed out where he was, but where he wasn’t...... That’s the kicker, it takes years to sort out.
I think UBL would have been safer in Quetta, hiding among the Baloch as they are hard to bribe, but they constantly bicker and quarrel, loose lips.
No brainer that UBL avoided Pakhtun areas as they are very gossipy and easy to bribe.
We knew UBL was somewhere in NE Pakistan as his videos to Al Jazeera came out of N India on virtually the same pathway and couriers.
When a target gets paranoid they cut back on the familiars around them. Familiars find safe pathways and tend to stick with them. If there are only 2-3 handoffs and you find a courier it is fairly easy to track back.
We knew UBL wasn’t going anywhere from Abottabad with all that family to move, so no hurry, let’s see who the visitors are..... We want Z badly, more than UBL.
When we realized there were no visitors to harvest, the raid was on.
On chain of command: McRaven makes the call if the HVT decides to move. If no urgency, Panetta makes the call. Obama is only informed of the decision after assets are in place, but has only a veto regarding the “go”.
If the POTUS says nothing, the raid is on. Obama’s posturing about saying “go” is not true as that is an operational command not available to him, he can only say “no”.
The POTUS has already signed off on the HVT kill or capture list by a secret Presidential Memo.
Very unlikely that any WH staffers like Jarrett had any knowledge of the raid.
Thanks gandalftb.