I used a number of factors to come up with the map, my gut feeling, looking at which candidate was closer to a majority in a given state, guesstimating what % of Perot voters would go which way and recalling the direction on how some of the Congressional races went. All conjecture, of course. Clearly, Bush was going to underperform 1988, but I believe some states would’ve already left our column (perhaps for the forseeable future with respect to Presidential races) as we see what passes for reliable GOP Presidential states today.
1992 also happens to be the first race I was able to legally cast a vote in, so I remember it fairly well, and it was a bad feeling (my state went for Clinton, if only because he picked the then-supposedly popular Gore). At the time, I didn’t even want to imagine that execrable ticket could even win, but it showed the degree to which Bush, Sr. had completely lost touch with a majority of the electorate.
Where you and I disagree is to what degree Clinton would’ve carried the EC, though you & I appear to agree that Bush would’ve lost (albeit by a closer margin).
Your prediction:
“Bush at least 255 (the 18 states Bush won in the three-man race, plus GA, MT, CO, NV, OH, WI, NH, NJ and KY),”
I moved GA & MT to the Bush win, but the others I couldn’t. CO seemed Dem-leaning (electing Ben Nighthorse Campbell before his switch), NV seemed too marginal not to go Dem, OH was a bellwether (and hence, would’ve gone Dem, as so many of the House races did there); WI moved away from us by then; NH was where Buchanan embarrassed Bush, and I think Clinton would’ve carried it; NJ was too gone, too, and even with a massively unpopular Dem Governor at the time, still wouldn’t have changed that. KY, unfortunately, also would vote similarly to TN, and they (sadly) liked Bubba-Gore there. The Dems romped in the House races there and Wendell Ford won in a landslide.
“19 EVs (CT, ME and IA) would be toss-ups leaning towards Clinton.”
To me, it was a no-brainer those would all go to Clinton. IA was already performing poorly for the GOP in the ‘80s, and CT & ME had just simply moved away.
“BTW, the analysis for 1996 would be far different, with Perot voters being far likelier to vote for Dole than for Clinton (if you didn’t vote for Clinton in 1996, you were unlikely to do so just because Perot wasn’t ilon the ballot). I think that in a Perotless 1996 race Dole would have lost both nationally and in PA by about 1%, but had Dole carried PA he would have gotten exactly 270 EVs.”
I didn’t throw in a Perotless ‘96, but clearly had they broken for Dole, he would’ve improved his standing. TN & KY would’ve gone for him, which would’ve foretold of Gore’s eventual bust in 2000, which I had a feeling for by then. I think if Dole had been a more aggressive campaigner, he could’ve gotten a narrow win and rid the country of Bubba. I know Dole gets bashed around here, but he was certainly a far better man. Other than he, I don’t know whom we could’ve recruited to run in ‘96 where the outcome would’ve resulted in a blowout (Colin Powell seemed presentable, but ultimately would’ve been a disaster as a liberal). Frightening to think Slick Willard, had he beaten Ted Kennedy, would’ve jumped right into the Presidential contest, and probably would’ve won outright without nearly the scrutiny he has gotten since (unfortunately). That would’ve been even worse than a Powell Presidency (hell, he probably would’ve picked him as a VP).
The "Fundamentalist" vote, for example, was at one time solidly Democrat. The Black vote was solidly Republican. The Democrats were the party of segregation.
The great dichotomy in political thought, American Style, is the paired-question ,
The election of Obama by a popular majority in 2008 gave us a very powerful example of the majority's answer to that question.
The RINO Equation is to tell people "WE, i.e., that's US, folks, can take better care of you more efficiently than those spendthrift Democrats with their weak, queer-loving family values, and we're more patriotic. The public's answer to that is often,
"Well, we might as get a Real Democrat!"
Enter you guys. Your job is not to convince me of your excellent Conservative bona fides, but to answer my question,
If Romney becomes the nominee, and can get the vote of the stupid to get The Mombasa MF out, more power to him. I'll do my damndest to surround him with Conservatives in Congress. The cure to this Depression, and the Socialist Damage wrought by Team Obama is going to take one hell of a lot more than one election to fix; elections that must be won.
Spare me apocalyptic "Shiite" conservatism. You ain't gonna fix anything by blowing up the system ... or what's worse ... Third Partying Obama back into public housing.