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Can Newt Gingrich keep his sputtering campaign alive?
csmonitor.com ^ | April 14 2012 | By Brad Knickerbocker

Posted on 04/15/2012 5:58:27 PM PDT by KSanders

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1 posted on 04/15/2012 5:58:37 PM PDT by KSanders
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To: KSanders

Gingrich would need to get about 95% of the remaining primary delegates to win the nomination. That includes NJ, NY, CT, RI, CA. Gingrich is still over 1000 delegates short.

Gingrich would need to prevent Romney from getting 600 of the remaining 1100+ delegates, including NJ, NY, CT, RI, CA.

==

The only way Gingrich gets to the WH is if both Romney and Obama drop out or Obama sends Gingrich an invitation.


2 posted on 04/15/2012 6:08:32 PM PDT by TomGuy
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To: TomGuy
Gingrich would need to get about 95% of the remaining primary delegates to win the nomination.

That says it all; Lee had a better chance in Richmond.

3 posted on 04/15/2012 6:19:44 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Past is prologue: The American people again let us down in this election cycle.)
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To: KSanders; Marguerite; onyx

Welcome to FR!

Do you happen to have access to an accurate delegate count now that the race is down to Romney, Newt and Paul?

Now that Santorum as dropped out of the race, I do wonder where the Santorum delegates will go. Then there are the states that have had their primary but their delegates have not been assigned or bound to a particular candidate. I also wonder about the states where the status of their delegates being “winner take all” or “proportional” has not been decided.

There are still several states yet to have their Republican Primary so I really wonder how so many claim the race is over. Things might look a lot different by the end of June.


4 posted on 04/15/2012 6:21:22 PM PDT by seekthetruth (I want a Commander In Chief who honors and supports our Military!)
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To: KSanders

By staying in he still gets some media attention for his issues, and anyone still sending him money helps pay down his campaign debt. It’s a win/win for him. Besides, I think he is having fun tooling around and talking to the public. Seems he goes to a lot of zoos and stuff too. Why not? Until Romney officially has 1144 delegates he may as well force some in the press to cover him for a little while longer. He’s burned his bridges at Fox, so maybe he will head over to CNN when this thing is over and make that network a little more watchable.


5 posted on 04/15/2012 6:29:32 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: seekthetruth

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

According to The NYTimes website, 1143 delegates remain in the upcoming primaries. Basically, we are at the half-way point.

Romney has 684, needs 460 more
Santorum has 270
Gingrich has 136, would need 1008 more
Paul has 52

1144 needed to win


6 posted on 04/15/2012 6:32:52 PM PDT by TomGuy
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To: seekthetruth

Now that Santorum as dropped out of the race, I do wonder where the Santorum delegates will go.


Interesting as I doubt if there has been a serious attempt to determine the requirements of each state as to how to proceed once a candidate has halted the campaign. Some states allow for the delegates to become unbound once released by the candidate others vary in their rules. I don’t know that Santorum has released his delegates as of yet has he?


7 posted on 04/15/2012 6:34:57 PM PDT by deport (.............God Bless Texas............)
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To: KSanders
I had intended to vote for Rick Santorum a week from Tuesday in the PA primary but now I'm voting for Newt. Romney has not categorically stated that he would not implement some form of cap and trade if he is elected.

Wall Street is salivating at the prospect. Trillions are at stake.

Vote for Newt in PA to signal support for more conservative Tea Party positions than Romney advocates.

8 posted on 04/15/2012 6:39:15 PM PDT by StopGlobalWhining (Buy a US Govt Railpass to visit Obamavilles in all 57 states on the Intercontinental Railroad)
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To: seekthetruth

“Do you happen to have access to an accurate delegate count now that the race is down to Romney, Newt and Paul?”

The latest (April 6) Republican National Committee’s latest official delegate count: 1034 have been attributed so far. Mitt Romney has 573 bound delegates, Rick Santorum has 202, Newt Gingrich has 132, and Ron Paul has 26. 101 delegates are unbound.

1135 delegates still to be attributed in the primaries to come.

http://www.gop.com/index.php/comms/comments/updated_rnc_delegate_count1/


9 posted on 04/15/2012 6:39:54 PM PDT by Marguerite (When I'm good, I am very, very good. But! When I'm bad, I'm even better)
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To: seekthetruth
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

2012 Republican Delegates (GOP Popular Vote)

(1,144 Needed To Win)
State Date Delegates Romney Santorum Gingrich Paul Delegate Allocation Open/Closed
RCP Total - 2,286 656 272 140 67 - -
(RNC Official Delegate Count) 573 202 132 26 (101 Unbound Delegates)
Iowa Jan 3 28 6 7 0 1 Non-Binding Caucus Closed
New Hampshire Jan 10 12* 7 0 0 3 Proportional Primary Open
South Carolina Jan 21 25* 2 0 23 0 Winner Take All Primary1 Open
Florida Jan 31 50* 50 0 0 0 Winner Take All Primary Closed
Nevada Feb 4 28 14 3 6 5 Proportional Caucus1 Closed
Minnesota Feb 7 40 2 17 1 9 Non-Binding Caucus Open
Colorado Feb 7 36 12 17 2 1 Non-Binding Caucus Closed
Maine Feb 11 24 10 4 0 8 Non-Binding Caucus Closed
Michigan Feb 28 30* 16 14 0 0 Hybrid Primary2 Closed
Arizona Feb 28 29* 29 0 0 0 Winner Take All Primary Closed
Wyoming Feb 29 29 12 7 1 6 Non-Binding Caucus Closed
Washington Mar 3 43 25 7 0 8 Non-Binding Caucus Closed
Georgia Mar 6 76 19 3 52 0 Proportional Primary1 Open
Ohio Mar 6 66 38 21 0 0 Proportional Primary1,3 Open
Tennessee Mar 6 58 16 29 10 0 Proportional Primary1,3 Open
Virginia Mar 6 49 43 0 0 3 Hybrid Primary2,3 Open
Oklahoma Mar 6 43 13 14 13 0 Proportional Primary1,3 Closed
Massachusetts Mar 6 41 38 0 0 0 Proportional Primary1 Open
Idaho Mar 6 32 32 0 0 0 Proportional Caucus3 Closed
North Dakota Mar 6 28 7 11 2 8 Non-Binding Caucus Closed
Alaska Mar 6 27 8 8 2 6 Proportional Caucus Closed
Vermont Mar 6 17 9 4 0 4 Hybrid Primary2 Open
Kansas Mar 10 40 7 33 0 0 Hybrid Primary2 Closed
Guam Mar 10 9 6 0 0 0 Non-Binding Caucus Closed
Northern Marianas Mar 10 9 6 0 0 0 Non-Binding Caucus Closed
Virgin Islands Mar 10 9 4 0 0 1 Non-Binding Caucus Closed
Alabama Mar 13 50 11 22 12 0 Proportional Primary3 Open
Mississippi Mar 13 40 12 13 12 0 Proportional Primary1 Open
Hawaii Mar 13 20 9 5 0 3 Proportional Caucus1 Closed
American Samoa Mar 13 9 9 0 0 0 Proportional Caucus Open
Puerto Rico Mar 18 23 20 0 0 0 Proportional Primary3 Open
Illinois Mar 20 69 42 12 0 0 Direct Election Open
Louisiana Mar 24 46 5 10 0 0 Proportional Primary1 Closed
Wisconsin Apr 3 42 33 9 0 0 Winner Take All Primary1 Open
Maryland Apr 3 37 37 0 0 0 Winner Take All Primary1 Closed
District of Columbia Apr 3 19 16 0 0 0 Winner Take All Primary Closed
Missouri Apr 21 52 - - - - Non-Binding Caucus Open
New York Apr 24 95 - - - - Proportional Primary3 Closed
Pennsylvania Apr 24 72 - - - - Direct Election Closed
Connecticut Apr 24 28 - - - - Hybrid Primary2,3 Closed
Rhode Island Apr 24 19 - - - - Proportional Primary Open
Delaware Apr 24 17 - - - - Winner Take All Primary Closed
North Carolina May 8 55 - - - - Proportional Primary Open
Indiana May 8 46 - - - - Hybrid Primary/Caucus1 Open
West Virginia May 8 31 - - - - Direct Election Open
Nebraska May 15 35 - - - - Non-Binding Primary Open
Oregon May 15 28 - - - - Proportional Primary1 Closed
Kentucky May 22 45 - - - - Proportional Primary1 Closed
Arkansas May 22 36 - - - - Proportional Primary Open
Texas May 29 155 - - - - Proportional Primary1 Open
California Jun 5 172 - - - - Winner Take All Primary1 Closed
New Jersey Jun 5 50 - - - - Winner Take All Primary1 Open
South Dakota Jun 5 28 - - - - Proportional Primary Closed
Montana Jun 5 26 - - - - Non-Binding Primary Closed
New Mexico Jun 5 23 - - - - Proportional Primary Closed
Utah Jun 26 40 - - - - Winner Take All Primary Open
Unpledged RNC - 0 31 2 4 1 Open

1 Delegates are awarded by district and statewide

2 Some delegates awarded by district and statewide, some proportionately, some winner-take-all

3 Election becomes winner-take-all if a candidate meets a certain threshold (usually 50%)

* States have been penalized half their delegates


10 posted on 04/15/2012 6:41:25 PM PDT by KSanders (Hope and Change is now Class and Gender warfare)
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To: KSanders
So Sheldon Adelson is a quitter?

Billionaires these days just haven't got what it takes.

11 posted on 04/15/2012 6:41:45 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: seekthetruth
RNC's count:

http://www.gop.com/index.php/comms/comments/updated_rnc_delegate_count1/

DELEGATE COUNT AS REPORTED BY STATE PARTIES

State

Delegates

Gingrich

Paul

Romney

Santorum

Unbound

New Hampshire

12

0

3

7

0

2

South Carolina

25

23

0

2

0

0

Florida

50

0

0

50

0

0

Nevada

28

6

5

14

3

0

Arizona

29

0

0

29

0

0

Michigan

30

0

0

16

14

0

Alaska

27

2

6

8

8

3

Georgia

76

52

0

21

3

0

Idaho

32

0

0

32

0

0

Massachusetts

41

0

0

38

0

3

Ohio

66

0

0

38

21

7

Oklahoma

43

13

0

13

14

3

Tennessee

58

10

0

16

29

3

Vermont

17

0

4

9

4

0

Virginia

49

0

3

43

0

3

Kansas

40

0

0

7

33

0

Guam

9

0

0

9

0

0

No. Mariana Islands

9

0

0

9

0

0

U.S. Virgin Islands

9

0

1

7

0

1

Wyoming

29

0

1

8

2

18

Alabama

50

14

0

11

22

3

American Samoa

9

0

0

9

0

0

Hawaii

20

0

3

9

5

3

Mississippi

40

12

0

12

13

3

Puerto Rico

23

0

0

23

0

0

Illinois

69

0

0

42

12

15

Louisiana

46

0

0

5

10

31

District of Columbia

19

0

0

16

0

3

Maryland

37

0

0

37

0

0

Wisconsin

42

0

0

33

9

0

Total

1034

132

26

573

202

101


12 posted on 04/15/2012 6:44:54 PM PDT by KSanders (Hope and Change is now Class and Gender warfare)
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To: TomGuy

I don’t know where NYTimes gets 1,143. Add up the remaining states on their list and it totals 986. So Romney needs to lose about half of the upcoming delegates to be denied the nomination

Add in “defecting” delegates and a challenge to the AZ and FL winner-take-all rules and he can lose some more.

Newt probably can’t win the nomination outright, but Romney is a far length from doing it himself, which means this could easily become a floor fight at the convention if people keep voting for Newt and don’t let Romney get to #1 in most of the upcoming states.


13 posted on 04/15/2012 6:49:08 PM PDT by JediJones (From the makers of Romney, Bloomberg/Schwarzenegger 2016. Because the GOP can never go too far left.)
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To: TomGuy; All; jimrob
.


Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin WILL BE the GOP's 2012 nominees ...

Almost one-hundred days to go before Tampa ... an ETERNITY in politics ...

Each and every day will see another "epic moment" of Romney-Fatigue ...

and more (previosusly uninformed) Romney "soft-supporters" will fall away ...

just as Newt Gingrich's "Third Army" receives new funding ... and WINNING (very day) the hearts and minds of a dissolusioned GOP conservative base ...




Even Santorum supporters are "quietly" wondering "why" did young, energetic Rick simply walk away from the field of battle, unlike Newt Gingrich ...

Santorum had EVERY reason to stay the course ... but alas ... glad he wasn't with George Washington at Valley Forge ...

or with General Anthony "NUTS !" McAuliffe at Bastogne ...




I read today at Free Republic about Romney's "great" Arizona Primary Victory ...

Willard got (only) 46-percent ... in a primary where Newt, Santorum and Dr. Winkie (Ron Paul) DIDN'T EVEN CAMPAIGN IN ...

Plus ... Willard had the Arizona Gov's endorsement ...

and only wins 46-percent ?




All you Free Republic Conservatives ...

"Listen up" (politely said) ...

Be of Good Cheer ... Romney WILL BE DEFEATED in TAMPA ...

Period.

God (Yahweh) bless America ...



.
14 posted on 04/15/2012 6:49:48 PM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin in 2012 !)
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**click to support FR**

15 posted on 04/15/2012 6:54:32 PM PDT by STARWISE (The overlords are in place .. we are a nation under siege .. pray, go Galt & hunker down)
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To: seekthetruth

The delegates attribution in three states may be disputed at the Convention: Florida, Arizona and (I forgot the third) made by the local RNC “winner take all”, contrary to the Party rule that all primaries held prior April the delegates attribution 1st MUST be proportional.

Gingrich would have netted 16 (for winning 31.5% of votes) delegates in Florida, instead of Romney “taking it all” 50.

Santorum only “suspended” his campaign (to be still able receive donations). If he officially drops out before the convention, his 202 delegates become unbound. If not, the delegates have to vote for him in the first round and are freed after that. He cannot “give” the delegates to anyone.


16 posted on 04/15/2012 6:55:31 PM PDT by Marguerite (When I'm good, I am very, very good. But! When I'm bad, I'm even better)
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To: deport

I don’t think he has released his delegates. I think that would signal that his campaign is over as opposed to suspended? From what I have read, that also requires him to repay any campaign debt.

I am ashamed to say, I never much paid attention to how other states conducted their primaries/caucus. I did this year. Very confusing...and I’ll bet if Rick releases his delegates, it will be equally confusing.


17 posted on 04/15/2012 7:04:14 PM PDT by berdie
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To: KSanders
Romney has had to spend mega MILLIONS and still hasn't locked up the race yet. The question IS...IF Mitt is the nominee ..will he be able to keep his sputtering campaign alive? Romney has not been able to rally the base and remains a weak candidate.
18 posted on 04/15/2012 7:08:24 PM PDT by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: KSanders

Romney’s campaign is sputtering along. Without his super pacs..Newt would be the nominee. The coward won’t even debate Newt again.
The numbers are NOT with Mitt

Posted by noprisoners49 (Diary)

Friday, April 13th at 5:30PM EDT
86 Comments
Recommenders: garfieldjl (Diary), dialove, rightwingnut2 (Diary), mswalnut (Diary)

Mitt Romney must win over 60% of all remaining hard delegates to secure the GOP nomination. Surprised?

19 states still need to be heard from, and of those states 869 hard delegates are available at the state and district level (discounting the 37 total delegates available between Indiana and Arkansas, which have proportionality rules only a democrat could love). State and committee GOP delegates number about 69, which I’m throwing into my calculations as a given for Romney.

Nevertheless, Romney still needs 663 delegates to reach that magic 1144 number.

Can he do it?

Of the 11,280,792 votes cast so far, Romney has accumulated 4,595,908 or only about 41%. Typically, Romney does not garner more than an average of 44% of the vote. Santorum averaged about 25% of the vote. Even if half of Santorum’s supporters vote for Mitt, this still does not give him the necessary 60+ % to secure the GOP nomination.

[All data from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_vote_count.html].


19 posted on 04/15/2012 7:12:45 PM PDT by katiedidit1 ("This is one race of people for whom psychoanalysis is of no use whatsoever." the Irish)
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To: KSanders

Is a brokered convention still possible?

Santorum merely suspended correct? He has not endorsed anyone else.

If we get to a brokered convention, then Newt and Rick have a chance and either is infinitely preferable to the Liar RINO.

But no doubt in my mind that Newt is made for American history as President, if not this time then in 2016 when he will be 72 years old, a little old but if he stays in good health he can get two terms in to turn this country towards the ideals of its founding.


20 posted on 04/15/2012 7:16:12 PM PDT by Hostage (Be Breitbart!)
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