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Posted on 04/15/2012 5:58:27 PM PDT by KSanders
Newt Gingrich, former House Speaker and a major Washington figure for decades, has been pushed to the fringes of presidential campaign discourse.
Although he’s still formally a candidate for the GOP’s 2012 nomination, he describes Mitt Romney as "far and away the most likely" GOP nominee – a fact made all-but-certain by Rick Santorum’s dropping out this week. Mr. Santorum had been Romney’s last remaining serious challenger.
With $4.5 million in debt, the Gingrich campaign organization has been operating on a shoestring as his principal financial angel, billionaire casino owner Sheldon Adelson, began moving toward the Romney campaign.
“It appears as though he’s at the end of his line,” Adelson said recently. “Because, I mean, mathematically, he can’t get anywhere near the numbers, and it’s unlikely to be a brokered convention.”
(Excerpt) Read more at csmonitor.com ...
Gingrich would need to get about 95% of the remaining primary delegates to win the nomination. That includes NJ, NY, CT, RI, CA. Gingrich is still over 1000 delegates short.
Gingrich would need to prevent Romney from getting 600 of the remaining 1100+ delegates, including NJ, NY, CT, RI, CA.
==
The only way Gingrich gets to the WH is if both Romney and Obama drop out or Obama sends Gingrich an invitation.
That says it all; Lee had a better chance in Richmond.
Welcome to FR!
Do you happen to have access to an accurate delegate count now that the race is down to Romney, Newt and Paul?
Now that Santorum as dropped out of the race, I do wonder where the Santorum delegates will go. Then there are the states that have had their primary but their delegates have not been assigned or bound to a particular candidate. I also wonder about the states where the status of their delegates being “winner take all” or “proportional” has not been decided.
There are still several states yet to have their Republican Primary so I really wonder how so many claim the race is over. Things might look a lot different by the end of June.
By staying in he still gets some media attention for his issues, and anyone still sending him money helps pay down his campaign debt. It’s a win/win for him. Besides, I think he is having fun tooling around and talking to the public. Seems he goes to a lot of zoos and stuff too. Why not? Until Romney officially has 1144 delegates he may as well force some in the press to cover him for a little while longer. He’s burned his bridges at Fox, so maybe he will head over to CNN when this thing is over and make that network a little more watchable.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html
According to The NYTimes website, 1143 delegates remain in the upcoming primaries. Basically, we are at the half-way point.
Romney has 684, needs 460 more
Santorum has 270
Gingrich has 136, would need 1008 more
Paul has 52
1144 needed to win
Now that Santorum as dropped out of the race, I do wonder where the Santorum delegates will go.
Interesting as I doubt if there has been a serious attempt to determine the requirements of each state as to how to proceed once a candidate has halted the campaign. Some states allow for the delegates to become unbound once released by the candidate others vary in their rules. I don’t know that Santorum has released his delegates as of yet has he?
Wall Street is salivating at the prospect. Trillions are at stake.
Vote for Newt in PA to signal support for more conservative Tea Party positions than Romney advocates.
“Do you happen to have access to an accurate delegate count now that the race is down to Romney, Newt and Paul?”
The latest (April 6) Republican National Committee’s latest official delegate count: 1034 have been attributed so far. Mitt Romney has 573 bound delegates, Rick Santorum has 202, Newt Gingrich has 132, and Ron Paul has 26. 101 delegates are unbound.
1135 delegates still to be attributed in the primaries to come.
http://www.gop.com/index.php/comms/comments/updated_rnc_delegate_count1/
2012 Republican Delegates (GOP Popular Vote)
| State | Date | Delegates | Romney | Santorum | Gingrich | Paul | Delegate Allocation | Open/Closed | |
| RCP Total | - | 2,286 | 656 | 272 | 140 | 67 | - | - | |
| (RNC Official Delegate Count) | 573 | 202 | 132 | 26 | (101 Unbound Delegates) | ||||
| Iowa | Jan 3 | 28 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | Non-Binding Caucus | Closed | |
| New Hampshire | Jan 10 | 12* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Proportional Primary | Open | |
| South Carolina | Jan 21 | 25* | 2 | 0 | 23 | 0 | Winner Take All Primary1 | Open | |
| Florida | Jan 31 | 50* | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Winner Take All Primary | Closed | |
| Nevada | Feb 4 | 28 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | Proportional Caucus1 | Closed | |
| Minnesota | Feb 7 | 40 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 9 | Non-Binding Caucus | Open | |
| Colorado | Feb 7 | 36 | 12 | 17 | 2 | 1 | Non-Binding Caucus | Closed | |
| Maine | Feb 11 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 8 | Non-Binding Caucus | Closed | |
| Michigan | Feb 28 | 30* | 16 | 14 | 0 | 0 | Hybrid Primary2 | Closed | |
| Arizona | Feb 28 | 29* | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Winner Take All Primary | Closed | |
| Wyoming | Feb 29 | 29 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 6 | Non-Binding Caucus | Closed | |
| Washington | Mar 3 | 43 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 8 | Non-Binding Caucus | Closed | |
| Georgia | Mar 6 | 76 | 19 | 3 | 52 | 0 | Proportional Primary1 | Open | |
| Ohio | Mar 6 | 66 | 38 | 21 | 0 | 0 | Proportional Primary1,3 | Open | |
| Tennessee | Mar 6 | 58 | 16 | 29 | 10 | 0 | Proportional Primary1,3 | Open | |
| Virginia | Mar 6 | 49 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Hybrid Primary2,3 | Open | |
| Oklahoma | Mar 6 | 43 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 0 | Proportional Primary1,3 | Closed | |
| Massachusetts | Mar 6 | 41 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Proportional Primary1 | Open | |
| Idaho | Mar 6 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Proportional Caucus3 | Closed | |
| North Dakota | Mar 6 | 28 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 8 | Non-Binding Caucus | Closed | |
| Alaska | Mar 6 | 27 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 6 | Proportional Caucus | Closed | |
| Vermont | Mar 6 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4 | Hybrid Primary2 | Open | |
| Kansas | Mar 10 | 40 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 0 | Hybrid Primary2 | Closed | |
| Guam | Mar 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Non-Binding Caucus | Closed | |
| Northern Marianas | Mar 10 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Non-Binding Caucus | Closed | |
| Virgin Islands | Mar 10 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Non-Binding Caucus | Closed | |
| Alabama | Mar 13 | 50 | 11 | 22 | 12 | 0 | Proportional Primary3 | Open | |
| Mississippi | Mar 13 | 40 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 0 | Proportional Primary1 | Open | |
| Hawaii | Mar 13 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3 | Proportional Caucus1 | Closed | |
| American Samoa | Mar 13 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Proportional Caucus | Open | |
| Puerto Rico | Mar 18 | 23 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Proportional Primary3 | Open | |
| Illinois | Mar 20 | 69 | 42 | 12 | 0 | 0 | Direct Election | Open | |
| Louisiana | Mar 24 | 46 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | Proportional Primary1 | Closed | |
| Wisconsin | Apr 3 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 0 | Winner Take All Primary1 | Open | |
| Maryland | Apr 3 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Winner Take All Primary1 | Closed | |
| District of Columbia | Apr 3 | 19 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Winner Take All Primary | Closed | |
| Missouri | Apr 21 | 52 | - | - | - | - | Non-Binding Caucus | Open | |
| New York | Apr 24 | 95 | - | - | - | - | Proportional Primary3 | Closed | |
| Pennsylvania | Apr 24 | 72 | - | - | - | - | Direct Election | Closed | |
| Connecticut | Apr 24 | 28 | - | - | - | - | Hybrid Primary2,3 | Closed | |
| Rhode Island | Apr 24 | 19 | - | - | - | - | Proportional Primary | Open | |
| Delaware | Apr 24 | 17 | - | - | - | - | Winner Take All Primary | Closed | |
| North Carolina | May 8 | 55 | - | - | - | - | Proportional Primary | Open | |
| Indiana | May 8 | 46 | - | - | - | - | Hybrid Primary/Caucus1 | Open | |
| West Virginia | May 8 | 31 | - | - | - | - | Direct Election | Open | |
| Nebraska | May 15 | 35 | - | - | - | - | Non-Binding Primary | Open | |
| Oregon | May 15 | 28 | - | - | - | - | Proportional Primary1 | Closed | |
| Kentucky | May 22 | 45 | - | - | - | - | Proportional Primary1 | Closed | |
| Arkansas | May 22 | 36 | - | - | - | - | Proportional Primary | Open | |
| Texas | May 29 | 155 | - | - | - | - | Proportional Primary1 | Open | |
| California | Jun 5 | 172 | - | - | - | - | Winner Take All Primary1 | Closed | |
| New Jersey | Jun 5 | 50 | - | - | - | - | Winner Take All Primary1 | Open | |
| South Dakota | Jun 5 | 28 | - | - | - | - | Proportional Primary | Closed | |
| Montana | Jun 5 | 26 | - | - | - | - | Non-Binding Primary | Closed | |
| New Mexico | Jun 5 | 23 | - | - | - | - | Proportional Primary | Closed | |
| Utah | Jun 26 | 40 | - | - | - | - | Winner Take All Primary | Open | |
| Unpledged RNC | - | 0 | 31 | 2 | 4 | 1 | Open | ||
1 Delegates are awarded by district and statewide
2 Some delegates awarded by district and statewide, some proportionately, some winner-take-all
3 Election becomes winner-take-all if a candidate meets a certain threshold (usually 50%)
* States have been penalized half their delegates
Billionaires these days just haven't got what it takes.
http://www.gop.com/index.php/comms/comments/updated_rnc_delegate_count1/
DELEGATE COUNT AS REPORTED BY STATE PARTIES
|
State |
Delegates |
Gingrich |
Paul |
Romney |
Santorum |
Unbound |
|
New Hampshire |
12 |
0 |
3 |
7 |
0 |
2 |
|
South Carolina |
25 |
23 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
|
Florida |
50 |
0 |
0 |
50 |
0 |
0 |
|
Nevada |
28 |
6 |
5 |
14 |
3 |
0 |
|
Arizona |
29 |
0 |
0 |
29 |
0 |
0 |
|
Michigan |
30 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
14 |
0 |
|
Alaska |
27 |
2 |
6 |
8 |
8 |
3 |
|
Georgia |
76 |
52 |
0 |
21 |
3 |
0 |
|
Idaho |
32 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
0 |
0 |
|
Massachusetts |
41 |
0 |
0 |
38 |
0 |
3 |
|
Ohio |
66 |
0 |
0 |
38 |
21 |
7 |
|
Oklahoma |
43 |
13 |
0 |
13 |
14 |
3 |
|
Tennessee |
58 |
10 |
0 |
16 |
29 |
3 |
|
Vermont |
17 |
0 |
4 |
9 |
4 |
0 |
|
Virginia |
49 |
0 |
3 |
43 |
0 |
3 |
|
Kansas |
40 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
33 |
0 |
|
Guam |
9 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
|
No. Mariana Islands |
9 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
|
U.S. Virgin Islands |
9 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
0 |
1 |
|
Wyoming |
29 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
2 |
18 |
|
Alabama |
50 |
14 |
0 |
11 |
22 |
3 |
|
American Samoa |
9 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
|
Hawaii |
20 |
0 |
3 |
9 |
5 |
3 |
|
Mississippi |
40 |
12 |
0 |
12 |
13 |
3 |
|
Puerto Rico |
23 |
0 |
0 |
23 |
0 |
0 |
|
Illinois |
69 |
0 |
0 |
42 |
12 |
15 |
|
Louisiana |
46 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
10 |
31 |
|
District of Columbia |
19 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
0 |
3 |
|
Maryland |
37 |
0 |
0 |
37 |
0 |
0 |
|
Wisconsin |
42 |
0 |
0 |
33 |
9 |
0 |
|
Total |
1034 |
132 |
26 |
573 |
202 |
101 |
I don’t know where NYTimes gets 1,143. Add up the remaining states on their list and it totals 986. So Romney needs to lose about half of the upcoming delegates to be denied the nomination
Add in “defecting” delegates and a challenge to the AZ and FL winner-take-all rules and he can lose some more.
Newt probably can’t win the nomination outright, but Romney is a far length from doing it himself, which means this could easily become a floor fight at the convention if people keep voting for Newt and don’t let Romney get to #1 in most of the upcoming states.
The delegates attribution in three states may be disputed at the Convention: Florida, Arizona and (I forgot the third) made by the local RNC “winner take all”, contrary to the Party rule that all primaries held prior April the delegates attribution 1st MUST be proportional.
Gingrich would have netted 16 (for winning 31.5% of votes) delegates in Florida, instead of Romney “taking it all” 50.
Santorum only “suspended” his campaign (to be still able receive donations). If he officially drops out before the convention, his 202 delegates become unbound. If not, the delegates have to vote for him in the first round and are freed after that. He cannot “give” the delegates to anyone.
I don’t think he has released his delegates. I think that would signal that his campaign is over as opposed to suspended? From what I have read, that also requires him to repay any campaign debt.
I am ashamed to say, I never much paid attention to how other states conducted their primaries/caucus. I did this year. Very confusing...and I’ll bet if Rick releases his delegates, it will be equally confusing.
Romney’s campaign is sputtering along. Without his super pacs..Newt would be the nominee. The coward won’t even debate Newt again.
The numbers are NOT with Mitt
Posted by noprisoners49 (Diary)
Friday, April 13th at 5:30PM EDT
86 Comments
Recommenders: garfieldjl (Diary), dialove, rightwingnut2 (Diary), mswalnut (Diary)
Mitt Romney must win over 60% of all remaining hard delegates to secure the GOP nomination. Surprised?
19 states still need to be heard from, and of those states 869 hard delegates are available at the state and district level (discounting the 37 total delegates available between Indiana and Arkansas, which have proportionality rules only a democrat could love). State and committee GOP delegates number about 69, which I’m throwing into my calculations as a given for Romney.
Nevertheless, Romney still needs 663 delegates to reach that magic 1144 number.
Can he do it?
Of the 11,280,792 votes cast so far, Romney has accumulated 4,595,908 or only about 41%. Typically, Romney does not garner more than an average of 44% of the vote. Santorum averaged about 25% of the vote. Even if half of Santorum’s supporters vote for Mitt, this still does not give him the necessary 60+ % to secure the GOP nomination.
[All data from http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_vote_count.html].
Is a brokered convention still possible?
Santorum merely suspended correct? He has not endorsed anyone else.
If we get to a brokered convention, then Newt and Rick have a chance and either is infinitely preferable to the Liar RINO.
But no doubt in my mind that Newt is made for American history as President, if not this time then in 2016 when he will be 72 years old, a little old but if he stays in good health he can get two terms in to turn this country towards the ideals of its founding.
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