Great post, my 2 cents to add:
1. Assad’s departure will greatly increase the inevitable fighting. The Alawites are a Shia sect, they and all shia’s will be hunted down by the sunni’s whom are fueled by the Muslim Brotherhood and the Saudi’s, Qatari’s and Jordanians.
It will be a bloodbath.
Our problem is that we want the Assad’s and Iranian influence gone but don’t want to be associated with the ethnic cleansing to come.
Our UAV patrols are not their for “humanitarian monitoring” as we have said, but for terrain mapping. Whatever fighting is to come, we want to prevent large scale attacks by any side using armor, artillery, or the very elusive rocket launchers.
Lots of weapons and trained insurgents are going in and massing on the borders. Gonna be a ruckus, soon, 2-3 months or less.
2. We know very well what’s going on but will be hard pressed to influence a peaceful outcome. The media is being kept away by all sides.
3. Well said.
4. There is no relationship between the Libyan events and Syria except that hundreds of Libyans have made their way to Syria to join the fight.
5. Much of the international community is driving the violence. Syria’s “friends” Russia and Iran are starting to back away. Once the Assad’s are gone, Turkey and Jordan will lead an Arab coalition to stabilize Syria from infighting.
Thanks gandalftb. The Alawites won’t go quietly, they are (currently) much better trained, better armed, and until the international community does the asset freeze number as it did with Gaddafy, better financed. And it’s already a bloodbath. :’) Lebanon has been the source of rebel arms, and along with Turkey and Jordan has been the destination of choice for Syrians either fleeing as refugees, or seeking medical attention.