Romney and Santorum would split vote if Gingrich exited race [What if Rick exited and Newt stayed?]

Pocono Record - PA ^ | March 17, 2012

[Cincinatus' Wife]

WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney would stand to benefit just as much as Rick Santorum if Newt Gingrich exited the presidential race, according to a new poll released Friday.

The Gallup poll defied conventional wisdom by suggesting Romney would peel off just as many Gingrich supporters as Santorum would. Forty percent of Gingrich supporters in Gallup's daily tracking poll said Romney was their second choice while 39 percent said they would migrate to Santorum.

"If two candidates for a presidential nomination compete in the same ideological space, it would make sense that if one dropped out that the other would benefit," Gallup's Jeffrey Jones wrote in analysis accompanying the poll. "But that does not appear to be the case for the 2012 Republican nomination."

Jones added that for Santorum to overtake Romney, "it may not be as simple as picking up additional support from Gingrich voters should the former speaker of the House drop out." Rather, "Santorum would also likely need to cut into Romney's current base of support to gain ground on the frontrunner."

Rick Santorum has battled Gingrich through most of the primary cycle as the two contenders have tried to establish themselves as the chief alternative to Romney. However, since winning the South Carolina primary on Jan. 21, Gingrich has won just one other state -- his native Georgia.

Meanwhile, Rick Santorum has shown strength in several southern and midwestern states, having won Iowa, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi, Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, North Dakota and the non-binding Missouri primary, putting pressure on Gingrich to pack his bags and allow Santorum to go head-to-head with Romney.

While the former Pennsylvania has not explicitly called on Gingrich to exit the race, he has publicly admitted that he could benefit from his rival's departure.

But after the Mississippi and Alabama primaries, Gingrich argued his continued presence was damaging to Romney, forcing him to engage in a two-front war on the airwaves against his rivals.

Gingrich also dismissed suggestions that by staying in the race he was hurting Santorum, saying the former Pennsylvania senator had essentially gone one-on-one with Romney in Ohio and Michigan and lost.

Santorum and Romney are set to do battle in Illinois Tuesday, the next big contest to vote following the Missouri caucuses and Puerto Rican primary over the weekend.

The latest poll in Illinois by FOX Chicago News showed Romney leading Santorum 37 percent to 31 percent in the state. Gingrich had 14 percent while eight percent supported Texas Rep. Ron Paul.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

All the polls show that Gingrich’s supports are divided 40% each for Snatorum and Romney, if they are true if Gingrich leaves Romney takes it. I haven’t seen any about Santorum leaving, my guess would be the same.

Would you give me the link to that polling info?

[Cincinatus' Wife]

...I haven’t seen any about Santorum leaving,...

Oops! That is the info I want (I have the other). I don't think anyone has asked about Santorum's departure and it's effect on the race.

I believe a much larger number would swing to Newt over Rick.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

.....I’m staying on point that there are obviously people who think the WORST choice is Santorum, who strongly support Newt. There are others who think Santorum is less bad than Romney, who strongly support Newt. There is a SPLIT.........

Yes!

[svcw]

Here is one in the HuffPo that references both the Gallup and Fox News polls.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/16/newt-gingrich-voters-polls-mitt-romney-rick-santorum_n_1354509.html