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Romney, Santorum Tie as Gingrich Voters' Second Choice
Gallup ^ | March 16, 2012 | Jeffrey M. Jones

Posted on 03/16/2012 11:28:59 AM PDT by Josh Painter

Some conservative Republicans have called for Gingrich to drop out of the race on the assumption that conservative primary voters would then unite behind Santorum as the conservative alternative to the more moderate Romney. But Gallup data indicate that Gingrich voters would not be likely to coalesce behind Santorum, suggesting that factors other than candidate ideology may be attracting voters to Gingrich, Santorum, and Romney.

Gallup can simulate Republican preferences without Gingrich in the race by removing Gingrich votes and reassigning them to his voters' second-choice candidate. The results of this procedure suggest that national GOP preferences would change little if Gingrich dropped out. The reconfigured preferences show Romney getting 40% of the vote and Santorum getting 33%. That seven-percentage-point Romney lead is essentially the same as the six-point (34% to 28%) Romney lead in March 8-15 interviewing with Gingrich support included.

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: delegatemath; gop; kenyanbornmuzzie; mittromney; newt2012; newtgingrich; nottromney; ricksantorum; santorum2012
"This suggests that Republican nomination preferences are not purely a function of ideology. For example, the candidates' records and experience may attract voters to their candidacy."
1 posted on 03/16/2012 11:29:02 AM PDT by Josh Painter
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To: Josh Painter

Statewide voting patterns and exit polls tell a different story. Somehwere around 57% of Gingrich’s votes would go to Santorum should he drop out. In Arkansas, Santorum had a blow-out win with 51% of the vote because Gingrich gave up on the Arkansas race.


2 posted on 03/16/2012 11:33:44 AM PDT by Steelfish (ui)
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To: Josh Painter

Sounds like half of Newt’s voters have a screw loose.


3 posted on 03/16/2012 11:36:36 AM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: GeronL

I’d wager real money that an analysis of Santorum supporters’ 2nd choices would indicate a similar breakdown roughly divided equally between Romney & Gingrich, with a few for Ron Paul.


4 posted on 03/16/2012 11:42:45 AM PDT by Josh Painter ("We intend to change Washington, not accomodate it." - Newt Gingrich)
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To: Josh Painter

I think it shows how much influence the MSM still has.


5 posted on 03/16/2012 11:46:31 AM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: GeronL

Screw loose, nice and direct and to the point.


6 posted on 03/16/2012 11:54:10 AM PDT by org.whodat
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To: org.whodat

Anyone who takes Mitt as their second choice is insane.

better?


7 posted on 03/16/2012 12:00:45 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: GeronL

I agree. Romney as second choice doesn’t compute.


8 posted on 03/16/2012 12:07:36 PM PDT by Eva
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To: Josh Painter

This is why Gingrich must stay in to the bitter end, even if “allhope is lost.” Neither he nor Santorum will beat Romney, so they both may as well stay in, in order to have a chance of draining enough votes away from the liberal to force a convention confrontation. It’s only hope of preventing another Frick vs Frack election.


9 posted on 03/16/2012 12:13:12 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty ("If the past sits in judgment on the present, the future will be lost." --Winston Churchill)
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To: Eva

I would vote for the Prohibition Party in November before I’d vote for Romney


10 posted on 03/16/2012 12:17:14 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: Josh Painter
If Ron would drop out, I think Newt would have a better shot at taking out Mitt. Once Mitt is gone, Newt would either get the required ll44 delegates or, at the least, tie with Rick going into the convention. My feeling is Newt would be the brokered winner in the end.

Go ahead and flame away, but if Newt announced Sarah as his running mate (long shot that she will accept though) we would end up with a dream team with debating skills beyond imagination. Not to mention a true Conservative ticket. Also, consider the fact that Sarah would be at the top of the list for future President of the United States.

11 posted on 03/16/2012 12:21:42 PM PDT by Evil Slayer (Onward, Christian soldiers, marching as to war....)
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To: Josh Painter
This is saying that Newt supporters are just plain hypocritical. I am pretty sure that reflects a lot of freepers attitudes, but all Newts supporters? Don't believe it for a minute, because if that is the case we are indeed doomed to another four years, and that will be the end of the Republic.

I firmly believe the Supreme Court will not overturn this nightmare, and Congress will not defund it, so maybe the Republic is over already.

12 posted on 03/16/2012 12:26:20 PM PDT by itsahoot (Tag lines are a waste of bandwidth, as are my comments.)
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To: Josh Painter

I don’t believe this. I feel that most Gingrich supporters want a brokered convention, thus they will likely back Santorum in later races to achieve this end.


13 posted on 03/16/2012 12:52:36 PM PDT by Thunder90 (Romney barely won in OH with a 12-1 money advantage, he can't beat Obama that way.)
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To: GeronL
Anyone who takes Mitt as their second choice is insane.

How about as their first choice?


14 posted on 03/16/2012 12:58:27 PM PDT by McGruff (Newt Gingrich, the closest thing we've got to Sarah Palin.)
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To: Josh Painter

Any coalesce-ees could go either way. I’m not fond of Newt. The only thing many conservatives agree on is that we do NOT want Romney or Obama.


15 posted on 03/16/2012 12:59:28 PM PDT by madison10
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To: McGruff

Naw, that was then, this is now. Wouldn’t most people have voted for Romney over McCain before Sarah was a running mate? I think so. The statement was made February 1, 2008—heck, it was made before Obama was a candidate (June of 2008), before the crash of 2008 and a whole host of historical game changers.


16 posted on 03/16/2012 1:04:50 PM PDT by madison10
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To: Josh Painter

I find that hard to believe.

We see every day here in the forum that a lot of Gingrich supporters HATE Santorum, and attack him at every opportunity. But that’s presumably because they think he is taking conservative votes away from their guy.

But would they actually be dumb enough to vote for Mitt? I don’t think so. I think that half the Newt voters are just saying this, in hopes that Rick will drop out and clear the way for Newt.


17 posted on 03/16/2012 1:21:28 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: madison10
Problem is when Santorum endorsed Romney (just before Super Tuesday) the following candidates were still in the race,

And he picked Romney as the most conservative?

18 posted on 03/16/2012 1:21:43 PM PDT by McGruff (Newt Gingrich, the closest thing we've got to Sarah Palin.)
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