Posted on 03/13/2012 9:34:54 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
With most eyes focused on Alabama and Mississippi in tonight’s contests, some may forget that another Deep South state goes to the polls next week. Louisiana will hold a binding primary on March 24th, which will be the last contest for ten days. Thus far, Rick Santorum has the edge in Louisiana, but the poll from WWL-TV and GCR shows Mitt Romney within the margin of error, followed closely by Newt Gingrich (via the Weekly Standard):
A new, exclusive statewide poll of likely Republican voters in Louisiana conducted for WWL-TV shows voters favoring Rick Santorum, with the primary election two weeks away.
The telephone poll of 515 likely Republican voters reveals Santorum leading the field, with just over 25 percent of the vote.
Mitt Romney places second with just under 21 percent and is in a virtual tie with Newt Gingrich, who has almost 20 percent. Ron Paul is way behind, with less than 6 percent. Undecided gets the biggest score of all — 26 percent.
WWL-TV election analyst Greg Rigamer, whose firm, GCR & Associates, conducted the survey from March 8-10, stresses this is a poll of Republicans with a very significant voting history.
“We would expect that in a low turnout election,” Rigamer said.
The internals of this poll aren’t available, but WWR reports on a few interesting points. The percentage of undecided voters doubles from men (17%) to women (34%), which means that a gender gap may play into late-breaking decisions on voting — which would tend to favor Romney, if national trends hold. Overall, 26% haven’t yet made a decision, which means that tonight’s contests could influence those results. Big wins for any of the top three candidates in Alabama and/or Mississippi might generate some Southern momentum and push one into a solid lead in Louisiana.
The poll has better news for Santorum on more than just the popular vote. Like many other states, Louisiana will award delegates based on Congressional districts. At the moment, the poll shows Santorum leading in three districts and tying Gingrich in a fourth. Romney leads in two districts and ties Gingrich in a third. Gingrich leads in no districts, with only the two ties. Romney’s support mainly comes from LA-02, which comprises New Orleans, so even an overall popular-vote win might result in a near-even split of delegates. With Romney’s lead, however, that wouldn’t be bad news at all for his campaign, while Santorum and Gingrich both need wins.
Both of them would probably like to get Bobby Jindal’s endorsement to cinch the state, but Jindal will take a pass, according to CNN:
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal will not endorse a candidate ahead of the state’s March 24 primary, a source close to the governor told CNN.
Jindal, certain to be short-listed by the Republican nominee as a potential running mate, endorsed Texas Gov. Rick Perry last fall and campaigned aggressively on his behalf before Perry ended his campaign in January.
Jindal would make an attractive running mate for any of the three top candidates, but especially for Mitt Romney. I’d guess that after Perry’s exit, Jindal has wisely decided to keep his options open.
Good for Jindal. I’m a Santorum supporter but I really wish that sitting elected officials would adopt a position of non endorsements.
Look at this. The “front-runner” liberal Mitt has 79% voting for someone other than him in key southern states which are must-wins for any Republican. If he’s the nominee, the GOP is going to get its clock cleaned.
Jindal is wise not to endorse. He has a great future as a GOP leader, even more so than the much touted Marco Rubio who has already shot his wad.
BTW: I am carrying NEWTs Baggage now. Someone gave it to me a few weeks back, in one of the threads, I requested the suitcase myself.
KNOW WHAT? IT'S EMPTY!!!!. You guys have been carrying around a load of nothing. hahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahaha.
There’s just something about would-be commedians who laugh at their own jokes...they’re just so....so....UNfunny.
Jindal previously endorsed Rick Perry so I would assume he’s with Ginrich and his big energy ideas.
If one accepts your rather strange implied assumption that everyone who doesn't vote for Romney in the primary just stays home in the general election.
If anything, these Southern states are so Republican they are automatic wins regardless of who is the Republican nominee, so it doesn't matter.
The overall implication of the poll (along with other ones just out showing Romney leading in Texas and having an enormous California lead) is that Romney keeps getting SOME delegates EVERYWHERE. Which means there's no way he doesn't get the nomination.
The old worn out stuff about NEWT is so passe. BIG FAIL.
Speaking of Marco Rubio, he has been in Ohio this past week campaigning for Josh Mandel for U.S. Senate to defeat Sherrod Brown.
The same can be said about Newt or Santorum. Rubio is very much aligned with the GOP establishment, but even that establishment is changing. Some of the GOP-e (though far from a majority yet) are actually beginning to see ObaMao and his owners as a real threat to the American way of life who will not even allow them keep the spoils of their office if it stands in the way of their globalist socialist agenda.
Rubio may be one of these. I'm not sure.
McCain, on the other hand, still thinks of the opposition as pleasantly nice people like Walter Mondale-- they may believe in Liberalism, but they are not anti-American to their core, certainly in nowhere near the same sense of the word as Obama's owners and mentors like Bill Ayers and George Soros.
I think the GOP establishment finds Josh Mandel attractive for the same reason they find Marco Rubio attractive; they both represent constituencies of traditionally heavily Democrat voters which might be spun off.
The GOP e may not get as much loyalty as they expect in return because a growing number of the younger generation sees Liberalism as the ugly face of evil which it truly is, not as the pleasant sounding but inefficient bromides pushed by their father's generation of Liberalism.
Ping.
OK, so after what primary will he be at 1144?
Because if Newton Leroy stays in , the Bishop from Planet Kolob doesn't necessarily get there..
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