OPEN LETTER TO MR. GINGRICH AND MR. SANTORUM (Vanity)

I like to present to you a simple but discouraging analysis upon the coming remaining primaries to show the probability that you both can or cannot deny Mr. Romney the outright nomination and force a brokered convention.

Each following line will list the state name by its first 3-4 letters, the model I use to estimate the delegate breakdown in parentheses( lib for liberal), total delegates allocated, and delegate shares designated with R for Romney, S for Santorum, and N for Newt.

(Based on delegate counts from Real Clear Politics – which calculated Romney has 455, Santorum 199, and Newt 117 at the time I did this analysis.)

Ala...(Okla).....50...16R...17S...17N / Cali....(Wash)..172...129R...20S...23N/ Conn...(lib.)....28...28R/ Del....lib.)....17...17R/ DC....(lib).....19...19R/ Haw...(lib.)....20...20R/ Ill...(lib.)...69...69R/ Ind...Ohio.)...46....27R...19S/ Ken..(Kan)....45.....8R....37S/ Loui.(Okla.).46....15R.....15S....16N/ Mary..(lib)..37....37R/ Miss.(Okla.).40....13R....14S...13N/ Misso..(Tenn).52....15R....27S...10N/ Mont..(.Wyo)..26....26R/ Neb..(Minn.)..35...17R....18S/ NJ..(lib)...50.....50R/ NY..(lib.)..95.....95R/ NC..(Okl.).55.....25R...15S.....15N/ Ore..(lib)..28....28R/ Penn.(Mich.).72...30R..35S......7N/ RI..(lib.)..19....19R/ SDak.(Wyo.)..28...18R....10S/ TX..(Tenn/GA).155..44R...27S..84N/ Uta..(Wyo.)....40..40R/ WV..(Okla.)...31...15R..7S.....8N/ Wis.(NDak.)...42...14R..22S...6N/ Puerto..(lib).23..23R

Romney now has 455, needs to have 1,144 for nomination. With projected 857 delegates, he will have 455 + 857 = 1312 delegates.

2. If one of you cannot quit, Mr. Gingrich, please do not campaign in the states which are projected by me that you might not win any delegate so that Mr. Santorum can most effectively take most delegates from Mr. Romney. (I say this with great deal of pain because I am your avid supporter for I admire your articulating skill, intelligence, courage, and vision, but I also know you will do the right thing for our country. As you and I both know, this is our last chance to take restore the beauty of USA we love so much.)

3. Mr Santorum should campaign in the most conservative districts where McCain in 2008 and Mr Gingrich in the less conservative Republican districts where Obama won in 2008, in order each get >50% votes , therefore, all delegates allocated, leaving none to Romney. CAMPAIGN AT DISTRICT LEVEL, NOT STATE ANY MORE.

4. Most importantly wherever you go, DO NOT tear each other up, but attack Romney especially on PRO-SAME-SEX-MARRIAGE in Massachusetts and on ROMNEYCARE/RELIGIOUS FREEDOM, and ABORTION, maybe GUN RIGHT also.

The issue of same-sex marriage alone will devastatingly prove once for all that Romney is truly an extreme liberal in disguise!!! Please exploit it!

(Based on delegate counts from Real Clear Politics – which calculated Romney has 455, Santorum 199, and Newt 117 at the time I did this analysis.)

Ala.........Okla..............50..................16R................17S..................17N

Alabama is truly southern state, therefore, will vote like Oklahoma.

Cali........Wash..............172..............129R...............20S.................23N

California is liberal state with CD winner take all.

Conn........lib.................28.................28R

Connecticut is libral state with winner-take-all, WTA

Del...........lib.................17..................17R

Delaware is the same as Conn.

DC...........lib...................19...............19R

DC is the same as Delaware.

Haw.........lib...................20..................20R

Hawaii is the same as DC.

Ill............lib....................69..................69R

Illinois is the most corrupted.

Ind..........Ohio...............46..................27R.............19S

Indiana is similar but slightly more conservative than Ohio.

Ken........Kan.................45..................8R................37S

Kentucky is like Kansas.

Loui.........Okla..............46..................15R..............15S..............16N

Louisiana is southern state, like Oklahoma.

Mary.........lib.................37..................37R

Maryland is liberal, WTA.

Miss.........Okla...............40.................13R................14S............13N

Mississippi is southern state, like Oklahoma.

Missou.....Tenn............. 52................15R.................27S.............10N

Missouri has more self-righteous Christians, like Tenn.

Mont.........Wyo.............26.................26R

Montana is far west state, like Wyoming, maybe some for Santorum due to more conservatism, but not much.

Neb...........Minn.............35................17R.................18S

Nebraska is more conservative of the far west, so I used Minnesota model.

NJ............lib..................50.................50R

NJ is liberal. WTA

NY..........lib..................95..................95R

NY is liberal, WTA at districts, so Newt can steal some here.

NC..........Okl............ .55..................25R................15S.............15N

NC is southern but more transient, therefore, more liberal, hybrid between Okla/Ohio.

Ore..........lib..................28..................28R

Oregon is liberal, like Washington.

Penn.......Mich..............72...................30R..............35S..............7N

Penn is like Ohio, but Santorum’s home state, more sophisticated than Ohio so Newt gets some.

RI...........lib..................19....................19R

RI is liberal.

S.Dako...Wyo...............28...................18R...............10S

South Dakota is far west state but conservative, I used Ohio model.

TX ........Tenn/GA........155.................44R..............27S.............84N

I use hybrid model between Tenn and GA due to the natures of soutern state and Perry’s endorsement for Newt.

Uta........Wyo.................40..................40R

Utah is Mormon state.

WV........Okla................31..................15R...............7S..............8N

West Virginia is like Virginia, goes with establishment, not sophisticated, Oklahoma-light model here with Romney is favored.

Wis........NDak..............42..................14R..............22S.............6N

Wisconsin is intellectual, rural, ND or Tenn model here.

Puerto.....lib...................23..................23R

Puerto is liberal.

Total...................................................857R

Romney now has 455, needs to have 1,144 for nomination. With projected 857 delegates, he will have 455 + 857 = 1312 delegates.

I took into account state-wise and district winner-take-all options from most states. Of course I will miss some technicalities here and there but the whole picture does look gloomy.

If my projections are being verified one by one, my letter will be acknowledged somehow. You guys will deliver it. And I will repost it if it is proven later.

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