Posted on 03/07/2012 3:47:21 PM PST by gogogodzilla
The voting is over, and so for the most part is the counting. The delegate math, I leave to others; lets take a look at how the popular vote has shaped up over the course of this primary season and what conclusions we can draw. First, the overall popular vote before Super Tuesday, on Super Tuesday, and to date.* In addition to listing the candidates individual vote totals, Ive classified them in three groups: the five conservative candidates (Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann and Cain), the two moderate candidates (Romney and Hunstman) and the libertarian (Paul). While there will undoubtedly be some grousing over the use of those labels, I think its uncontroversial to note that Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann and Cain all built their campaigns around appealing first to the conservative wing of the party and reaching out from there, while Romney and Huntsman took the opposite approach (and Paul, of course, is in his own category), so this turns out to be a reasonably useful descriptor of how the electorate has broken out between the voters responding to these different appeals. If anything, this overstates the moderate voting bloc, as Romneys electability argument, among other things (including religious loyalties among Mormon voters), has tended in exit polls to draw him some chunk of conservative support.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
I've posted an excerpt, as the main article has graphs that don't translate well.
Good work.
Frankly I’m amazed that Romney gets as many votes as he does.
The guy just seems so slick, and unappealing.
While Romney is only getting about 40% of the popular vote, he has been smart about where he has focused and won, because it has netted him 53% of the delegates so far, which puts him on track to win.
If we want that stopped, Newt and Rick simply have to come together as a team, present a united front so that they really combine their votes, and thus be in a position to stop splitting votes and start winning more contests and particularly more delegates.
2012 GOP Primaries | Date | Mitt Romney | Newt Gingrich | Rick Santorum | Ron Paul | Ron Huntsman | Rick Perry | Michele Bachman | Herman Cain | Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||
Votes | % | Del's | Win | Votes | % | Del's | Win | Votes | % | Del's | Win | Votes | % | Del's | Win | Votes | % | Del's | Votes | % | Del's | Votes | % | Del's | Votes | % | Del's | Votes | Del's | ||
Iowa | 1/3/2012 | 29,805 | 24.58% | 7 | - | 16,163 | 13.33% | 2 | - | 29,839 | 24.61% | 7 | 1 | 26,036 | 21.47% | 7 | - | 739 | 0.61% | 0 | 12,557 | 10.36% | 0 | 6,046 | 4.99% | 0 | 58 | 0.05% | 0 | 121,243 | 23 |
New Hamp | 1/10/2012 | 97,601 | 39.81% | 7 | 1 | 23,291 | 9.50% | 0 | - | 23,362 | 9.53% | 0 | - | 56,872 | 23.20% | 3 | - | 41,783 | 17.04% | 2 | 1,764 | 0.72% | 0 | 350 | 0.14% | 0 | 160 | 0.07% | 0 | 245,183 | 12 |
South Caro | 1/21/2012 | 168,152 | 27.86% | 2 | - | 244,133 | 40.44% | 23 | 1 | 102,492 | 16.98% | 0 | - | 78,362 | 12.98% | 0 | - | 1,173 | 0.19% | 0 | 2,534 | 0.42% | 0 | 491 | 0.08% | 0 | 6,326 | 1.05% | 0 | 603,663 | 25 |
Florida | 1/31/2012 | 776,059 | 46.44% | 50 | 2 | 534,040 | 31.96% | 0 | - | 223,208 | 13.36% | 0 | - | 117,410 | 7.03% | 0 | - | 6,199 | 0.37% | 0 | 6,773 | 0.41% | 0 | 3,967 | 0.24% | 0 | 3,492 | 0.21% | 0 | 1,671,148 | 50 |
Nevada | 2/4/2012 | 16,486 | 50.12% | 14 | 3 | 6,956 | 21.15% | 6 | - | 3,277 | 9.96% | 3 | - | 6,175 | 18.77% | 5 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 32,894 | 28 |
Main | 2,190 | 39.65% | 9 | 4 | 349 | 6.32% | 0 | - | 989 | 17.90% | 3 | - | 1,996 | 36.13% | 7 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 5,524 | 19 | |
Colorado | 2/7/2012 | 22,875 | 35.00% | 13 | - | 8,394 | 12.84% | 1 | - | 26,372 | 40.35% | 17 | 2 | 7,713 | 11.80% | 1 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 65,354 | 32 |
Minnesota | 8,096 | 16.97% | 2 | - | 5,134 | 10.76% | 1 | - | 21,436 | 44.94% | 25 | 3 | 13,030 | 27.32% | 9 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 47,696 | 14 | |
Missouri | 63,826 | 26.24% | 0 | - | 9,859 | 4.05% | 0 | - | 138,957 | 57.12% | 0 | 4 | 30,641 | 12.59% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 243,283 | 0 | |
Arizona | 2/28/2012 | 216,805 | 47.99% | 29 | 5 | 74,110 | 16.40% | 0 | - | 122,088 | 27.03% | 0 | - | 38,753 | 8.58% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 451,756 | 29 |
Michigan | 409,899 | 42.34% | 16 | 6 | 65,016 | 6.72% | 0 | - | 377,521 | 38.99% | 14 | - | 115,712 | 11.95% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 968,148 | 30 | |
Washington | 3/3/2012 | 19,111 | 37.65% | 30 | 7 | 5,221 | 10.28% | 0 | - | 12,089 | 23.81% | 5 | - | 12,594 | 24.81% | 5 | - | 924 | 1.82% | 0 | 437 | 0.86% | 0 | 198 | 0.39% | 0 | 190 | 0.37% | 0 | 50,764 | 40 |
Wyoming | 822 | 38.99% | 10 | 8 | 165 | 7.83% | 1 | - | 673 | 31.93% | 9 | - | 439 | 20.83% | 6 | - | 3 | 0.14% | 0 | 2 | 0.09% | 0 | 2 | 0.09% | 0 | 2 | 0.09% | 0 | 2,108 | 26 | |
Alaska | 3/6/2012 | 4,285 | 32.52% | 8 | 9 | 1,856 | 14.09% | 3 | - | 3,860 | 29.30% | 7 | - | 3,175 | 24.10% | 6 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 13,176 | 24 |
Georgia | S | 225,926 | 25.18% | 15 | - | 417,364 | 47.81% | 47 | 2 | 172,473 | 19.76% | 10 | - | 57,125 | 6.54% | 4 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 872,888 | 76 |
Idaho | u | 27,514 | 61.61% | 32 | 10 | 940 | 2.11% | 0 | - | 8,115 | 18.17% | 0 | - | 8,086 | 18.11% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 44,655 | 32 |
Massachusetts | p | 260,509 | 73.29% | 41 | 11 | 16,756 | 4.71% | 0 | - | 43,6114 | 12.27% | 0 | - | 34,575 | 9.735 | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 355,455 | 41 |
N. Dakota | e | 2,691 | 23.71% | 7 | - | 961 | 8.48% | 2 | - | 4,510 | 39.74% | 11 | 5 | 3,186 | 28.07% | 8 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 11,349 | 28 |
Ohio | r | 453,927 | 38.93% | 32 | 12 | 174,606 | 14.78% | 10 | - | 441,908 | 37.42% | 20 | - | 110,633 | 9.37% | 4 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 1,181,074 | 66 |
Oklahoma | 80,291 | 28.34% | 13 | - | 78,686 | 27.77% | 13 | - | 96,759 | 34.15% | 14 | 6 | 27,572 | 9.73% | 13 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 283,208 | 43 | |
Tennessee | T | 153,889 | 28.46% | 18 | - | 132,142 | 24.43% | 12 | - | 204,978 | 37.90% | 26 | 7 | 49,782 | 9.21% | 2 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 540,791 | 58 |
Vermont | u | 22,533 | 41.01% | 9 | 13 | 4,606 | 8.39% | 0 | - | 13,401 | 24.39% | 4 | - | 14,407 | 26.22% | 4 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 54,949 | 17 |
Virginia | e | 158,050 | 59.52% | 44 | 14 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 107,470 | 40.48% | 5 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 265,520 | 49 |
Kansas | 3/10/2012 | 40 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Guam | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Virgin Islands | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Alabama | 3/13/2012 | 50 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Am Somoa | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hawaii | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mississippi | 40 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Missouri | 3/17/2012 | 52 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Puerto Rico | 3/18/2024 | 23 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Illinois | 3/20/2012 | 69 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Louisiana | 3/24/2012 | 46 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DC | 4/3/2012 | 19 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Maryland | 37 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wisconsin | 42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Texas | 155 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
At large Del's | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
TOTALS | 3,221,342 | 39.61% | 431 | 14 | 1,820,751 | 22.39% | 124 | 2 | 2,071,921 | 25.48% | 183 | 7 | 921,744 | 11.33% | 78 | 0 | 50,821 | 1.13% | 2 | 24,067 | 0.53% | 0 | 11,054 | 0.25% | 0 | 10,228 | 0.23% | 0 | 8,131,928 | 814 | |
To Date % of | Delegates | Romney | 53% | Gingrich | 15% | Santorum | 21% | Paul | 10% | Huntsman | <1% | Perry | 0% | Bachman | 0% | Cain | 0% |
Thanks for all your hard work on this chart, Jeff. Excellent.
You’re welcome!
Great chart. I am disappointed that Georgia went for Romney in the number 2 spot. That kinda stinks. I wish Romney supporters would get it through their thick skulls that he is HORRIBLE. Newt or Rick or bust.
With 3.2 million out of 8 million voting for him thus far, I do not think they will.
But they are good loyal Americans and if Newt and Santorum can come together and win this thing, they will support the nominee against Obama, and I expect they will do so enthusiastically.
Last time his supporters supported Sarah and Mccain whole heartidly.
We just need for Newt and Santorum to team up and stop splitting the vote.
“If we want that stopped, Newt and Rick simply have to come together as a team, present a united front so that they really combine their votes, and thus be in a position to stop splitting votes and start winning more contests and particularly more delegates.”
How do you propose they do that?
The should meet together...take a hard look at the numbers now and the future races. They should decide, between themselves, who has the best chance to win the nomination if they combine...and then make sure that person (with the other at their side) has the best chance to beat Obama.
Then they decide.
Neither appears willing to let go and do that...but if they do not do it soon, they will first loose any chance for either to win the nomination outright, and then later, loose the chance to stop Romnmey from doing so.
One of them is going to have to be humble and willing for the larger good of the country. It will be hard for either to let go at this point, for different reeasons.
“It will be hard for either to let go at this point, for different reasons.”
Honestly, I’d be okay with Santorum as opposed to Romney, except it’s just a fact that he would crumble to BHO. That’s my problem with him (Romney as well). I’m for anyone who can beat the Wan, but Newt is the only one who can. His record of dealing with a hostile slickster President is pretty darn good.
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