Newt was polling far ahead in Iowa back in December. There is no fundamental, immutable aversion to Newt that cannot shift in the next 9 months the way it shifted in the last 2 months. Who is going to be more impressive in the convention speech and in the debates, the biggest exposure a candidate gets to the American public in the general election? Rick has certainly flubbed debates more often and worse than Newt has.
A two-man race between Obama and the Republican candidate is a very different calculation than a primary with multiple candidates. There is a strong anti-Obama vote that will vote for whoever the Republican is, as long as they seem like a credible candidate and not a flake. Newt has a better chance of seeming acceptable to moderates than Rick does (he can speak to economic populism while not turning off the anti-holy-roller crowd), while still holding onto conservatives. Mitt can get the moderate vote, but turns off conservatives.
If Newt picks Rick as the V.P. then Newt will have a boost anywhere where Santorum does well. The V.P. pick is just one wild card that can dramatically shift not only predictions for the general election, but even shift the polls in one day when it’s announced as we saw with Sarah Palin.
I wonder if there’s any historical precedent for a candidate picking his VP before the end of his party’s primary battle. And even if there isn’t, what to stop a Gingrich/Santorum or Santorum/Gingrich team going up against the deathstar of Romney/MSM/Wall Street/Washington Establishment? (Such a pick would not be legally binding, but it would a public pledge, the two would campaign together, etc.)
I wouldn’t say such a team would be guaranteed victory, but I would put the odds at at least 80%.