Skip to comments.GALLUP DAILY: GOP Ballot Tracking (2/26: Romney 31, Santorum 29, Gingrich 15.)
Posted on 02/26/2012 10:02:56 AM PST by BCrago66
For the general trend, see the graph at the bottom of the page:
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Whoops. I know it’s 2/26, not 2/27.
So, are we going to get another establishment liberal hack dumped on us again?
Thanks admin, for correcting so quickly.
In a perfect world this would be absurd.
I feel such moral revulsion about Romney, it will take every ounce of willpower to vote for him against Obama, if it comes to that.
But maybe I just won’t do it, and if it looks like the guy is unstoppable, we should just focus on the House & Senate & state governorships as a check against oppressive government.
Michigan and Washington winS will put Rick back on top.
And keeping Willard the Lib’s AZ win in single digits would ALSO be nice.
Please make calls into those states:
It’s easy and fun AND WILL have a huge impact on the election...
I have decided that I will not vote for the phony, unethical liar, Rombo Romney and it is so freeing to know that I don’t have to ever again compromise my principles and support an Est-e choice just because they threaten me.
Mistake I made was to tell a few GOP insiders types of my personal decision, causing them to froth at the mouth, calling me a traitor and insisting that if Obama wins, it’ll be all my fault.
So here’s my response from now on(more or less) and you may want to use it too:
“If Obama wins another term, it won’t be because of Conservatives like me who have decided not to compromise our core values by voting for this dishonorable man.
Rather, it will be because of:
A.The mass number of uninformed, brain dead entitlement minded drones who repeat their first mistake out of blind loyalty, white guilt and/or ignorance.
B.An equally uninformed GOP-E, of which you are a member,who saw fit to try to force a Mitt Romney down our throats.
No thanks, No Romney/No Way.
Oh, and I agree with you, BC. There are many other races that we can focus on.
Based on the top two, I’d say YES.
So Mariner, how much more proof do you need based on what I told you Friday? Again, another tracking poll confirms what I knew all along would happen if Santorum dropped: many supporters would eventually just surrender because they’re just tired of having their candidate ripped to shreds by not just the MSM, but by so called conservatives. Romney goes up, but Newt doesn’t gain anything.
Knowing who the voters are and what the demographics are will get you to that insight.
So now that we have verifiable proof I know what I’m talking about, you got two options:
(1) Help Santorum win Michigan, which should allow him to hold onto Washington on 3 Mar and proceed to win on Super Tuesday in states where he should win OR
(2) Continue spewing the Anti-Santorum crap, let Romney win by 15+ in both MI and AZ, possibly upset in WA and cruise to Super Tuesday upsets where he will be declared the “inevitable” nominee again
Newt supporters should vote for Rick Santorum in Michigan. Derail Romney now!
So...is Michigan lost now or what? Everyone is acting like it is. Does Santorum still have a shot in MI?
I have not given up re the Republican primaries.
I was speaking about what to do if Romney does clinch the Republican nomination, which I do not take to be inevitable.
The history has been that Romney does not gain momentum after a big win. He tends to get pummeled in the next state. NH led to Newt winning SC. FL led to Rick’s hat trick. The trend is that a win by one of the other guys leads to a huge Romney attack ad blitz winning him the next state, and then the next states swinging back to a conservative. With Rick damaged, that conservative could be Newt.
I still think people should vote for Rick in MI and AZ since Newt has already conceded those states and in the long run, we may need Rick to share his delegates with Newt so they can win at the convention. Super Tuesday is when it will be time to go Newt-clear again.
I’ll call it.
This moment in time is not frozen.
Life and the world move on.
When polls said something different, along each twist and turn, to be consistent you would’ve had to accept each one as “forever”, which I’m quite sure you did not.
If you did, how absurd.
The more general point which I will make again, not for you because you appear to be a one tune, single note piper, piping away every day...but for those who aren’t stuck where you are...
There is no reason on earth or in the solar system or galaxy, or in the common sense we should’ve learned as a child, to believe that only Rick Santorum can defeat Romney and Obama.
That is an obsession bordering on delusion.
Who in the world is Rick Santorum that he now eclipses everyone else as “the only one”, or the “lone saviour”, or whatever??
Both Newt & his campaign manager have in recent interviews all-but-explicitly advised supporters to vote for Santorum in Michigan. I think the reason it’s not completely explicit is they don’t want to start a meme that Newt has given up generally, and they also don’t want to supply material for a YouTube video where the “in Michigan” part is edited out of the statement “vote for Santorum.”
The trend in all the primaries has been that whichever direction the polls go in the last few days before the primary, is only enhanced during the actual vote. So whichever candidate is on his way down or up only ends up further down or up on election day. That indicates a win for Mitt. Even Newt said Friday he expects Mitt to have a good day and win MI and AZ. I’d like to say Rick had a chance to turn it around, but it’s pretty easy to poll just one state vs. a national election, and the polls have made every one of these primaries so far very predictable.
No...Rick supporters should vot for Newt. Geez...
Shouldn't this be, "With Rick damaged, and Newt damaged worse, that conservative would be who?"
How many democrats were Polled?..
The thought of Santorum “on top” is as depressing as Romney on top.
America needs Newt.
Santorum top choice of 46% of Ohio #TeaParty in Cincinnati area. #Gingrich 31%, both #Romney & #Paul 11.5% #ohgop #tngop #migop #azgop
It’s not going to happen. You still don’t understand the nature of Santorum’s supporters.
Sure, Rick picked up some support from Newt and some of that could move back (I expect Gingrich to get near 20%, in the tracking poll but not much over that).
What you don’t understand though is that a large chunk of Santorum supporters are prior Bachmann, Cain, Perry folks that viewed Rick as the last acceptable choice. Many of these people don’t view Newt as a viable conservative alternative to Romney because Newt lacks Trust and likeability. Outside of the South, I see no place where Newt would have success in a 1 on 1 against Romney.
Additionally, what little support Santorum has among Seniors, Hispanics, and females, those 3 groups (outside of the Southern States) will almost all go to Romney if Santorum loses them.
Zero, unless you count RINOs. I cropped the headline, because of the character limit, but the Gallup poll is called:
“GALLUP DAILY: GOP Ballot Tracking, Among Republican Registered Voters”
I WILL NEVER VOTE FOR ROMNEY!!!!! Focus on congress and senate,
also any governors that are up for election!!!!!
America’s true conservatives need Newt’s fans to vote for Rick in Michigan.
Besides the religious social differences, the two are both, big government Bureaucrats.
The Southern states are anything but inconsequential. Certainly Romney can’t win the nomination outright without performing well in the Southern states. You say it’s possible support will come back to Newt...well there’s a LOT of support that used to be there that certainly could come back then. Your argument that there are too many people who he was never acceptable to doesn’t wash considering how high he’s been in the polls before.
I’m for both Rick and Newt staying in through the end of March at least. People need to realize that there is now almost certainly NO possible way either Newt or Rick wins the nomination without them both being on the same Pres./V.P. ticket. So the supporters of one better start warming up to the other.
I have faith that the truth will come out. Newt is as trustworthy a politician as you’ll ever find. Out of all the smears, I haven’t seen any evidence yet that he ever broke a campaign promise. Everything promised in the Contract with America was voted on.
As for likability, I like Rick but I love Newt. You may be right that I simply cannot understand why anyone who wants to see conservative policy drive our government would not love a guy like Newt who fought hard against the establishment to push the Republican party and the country to the right for 2 decades in public office.
Tell me where Newt beats Romney OUTSIDE the South. Come on, tell me. Where in the 57 states is this going to take place?
In case you forgot, General Elections are fought and decided by the Electoral College. How does Newt get to 270? I’ll give you a hint: he would have to win one of the following battlegrounds (NH, PA, MI, WI, IA, NM, CO, NV)
Where’s that victory going to come from? NH? Not likely given the Demographics. PA? Newt’s unfavorability ratings would crush him in the Philadelphia suburban counties. WI? Not likely since he hasn’t won anywhere else in the midwest. IA? I don’t think so. CO? Not when Tom Tancredo doesn’t like your amnesty stance on immigration and plus Newt was crushed in the primary. NM and NV, 2 states made up of Seniors and Hispanics? Go back and see how Newt did in South FL and NV for that answer.
Now let’s look at Santorum. He won IA, CO, MN, and has a good chance to win MI. PA is his home state. He has union ties which favor some crossover Reagan Democrat voters who do have a favorable opinion of him on likeability and TRUST. He is not toxic with female voters outside the South that Newt cannot carry. Except for NH, Santorum would have EXCELLENT chances to sweep ALL of the Battleground states.
Facts, voting trends, Demographics. If you actually STUDY them, you’ll realize WHY Santorum is CLEARLY the most electable conservative candidate who can defeat both Romney and Obama.
Newt was polling far ahead in Iowa back in December. There is no fundamental, immutable aversion to Newt that cannot shift in the next 9 months the way it shifted in the last 2 months. Who is going to be more impressive in the convention speech and in the debates, the biggest exposure a candidate gets to the American public in the general election? Rick has certainly flubbed debates more often and worse than Newt has.
A two-man race between Obama and the Republican candidate is a very different calculation than a primary with multiple candidates. There is a strong anti-Obama vote that will vote for whoever the Republican is, as long as they seem like a credible candidate and not a flake. Newt has a better chance of seeming acceptable to moderates than Rick does (he can speak to economic populism while not turning off the anti-holy-roller crowd), while still holding onto conservatives. Mitt can get the moderate vote, but turns off conservatives.
If Newt picks Rick as the V.P. then Newt will have a boost anywhere where Santorum does well. The V.P. pick is just one wild card that can dramatically shift not only predictions for the general election, but even shift the polls in one day when it’s announced as we saw with Sarah Palin.
I wonder if there’s any historical precedent for a candidate picking his VP before the end of his party’s primary battle. And even if there isn’t, what to stop a Gingrich/Santorum or Santorum/Gingrich team going up against the deathstar of Romney/MSM/Wall Street/Washington Establishment? (Such a pick would not be legally binding, but it would a public pledge, the two would campaign together, etc.)
I wouldn’t say such a team would be guaranteed victory, but I would put the odds at at least 80%.
It's looking like there's company for the Anybody But Romney crowd. I believe there is now a significant faction in the GOP that is Anybody But Santorum. It's probably second only to the anti-Romney crowd in size.
Both of these candidates attract a strong negative reaction.
When you hear in the news over the next couple of weeks about the ABS faction, remember you heard it hear first.
Of course this is just my opinion and I could be filled to the brim with sh!t.
[ GALLUP DAILY: GOP Ballot Tracking, Among Republican Registered Voters ]
I don’t trust Gallup... Polls are completely propaganda..
A poll is agitprop in every situation.. the very concept is agitprop..