Posted on 02/26/2012 8:32:49 AM PST by DeaconBenjamin
After the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923, notes Dokkyo University economics professor Takuro Morinaga in Weekly Playboy (March 5), Japan suffered a financial panic two years before the New York Stock Market crash of 1929. That precipitated the depression of Showa, with a drastic fall in property values and mass unemployment. Farmers, unable to cover their costs, sold their daughters.
Japans current recession, says Morinaga, was set off by the Great Hanshin Earthquake in January 1995, after which an increase in the consumption tax from 3% to 5% resulted in a drop of 40 trillion yen in Japans nominal gross domestic product.
The next increase in the consumption tax, planned from April 2014, ignores the lesson of history, and Morinaga predicts that within that year, a financial panic could very well ensue.
The magazine then offers its darkly pessimistic scenarios of an economy in tatters, in which one out of four workers is unemployed, and for part-time workers, hourly compensation will plummet. Employers will not even reimburse them for their transportation.
With government revenues drying up, there will be mass layoffs of civil servants as well. Public works projects will come to a screeching halt, and as budgets for education, the arts and culture dry up, Japans national treasures will deteriorate and crumble.
The age from which workers begin collecting their old-age pensions may be pushed back to age 75.
Meanwhile, public services like fire and rescue, and refuse collection will vanish, leaving the cities resembling a war zone.
The national health insurance scheme will also face collapse, which means patients out-of-pocket costs will rise by 20% or more.
What else? Foreign companies will buy up Japanese firms for a song. The defense budget will be slashed, and Japans already weak diplomacy will become completely dysfunctional.
With declining value of the yen, consumers will face hyper-inflation. Imagine a humble bowl of ramen priced at 2,000 yen. And the consumption tax, which is set to rise to 10% by 2015, will go up yet another 15%.
It gets even worse: with collapse of the banking system, individual assets, including savings accounts, will be frozen. (Readers are advised to spread their assets between two or three institutions.) It might come to the point that people barter their gold jewelry and other valuables for foodas was done after the Pacific War.
A severe pinch on energy will see a living standard resembling that of North Korea, with no electric power for up to 12 hours a day, and TV stations signing off by 10 p.m.
Meanwhile, the police will have their hands full. Incidents of armed robbery and rape will soar. The clearance rate for all crimes, which is currently a low 31.4% nationwide, will fall further. With the prisons overcrowded, nonviolent offenders will be released; once on the outside, they will repeat their crimes.
With no budget for fuel, police patrols will drop off, with koban and police sub-stations mobbed by unruly crowds. As urban koban become unsafe places for cops to eat or sleep, they will be left unmanned. Driven to desperation, the strong will prey on the weak, with public safety plummeting. Once the sun sets, Japans towns and cities will be scary places indeed.
As bad as all these may seem, they could get even worse.
If we slip even slightly, Morinaga warns, we can imagine a situation where Japan takes a direction similar to the 2-26 Incident (the bloody Feb 26, 1936 coup detat attempt by a radical army faction).
With the economy no longer able to sustain people, what can Japanese do to ensure their own survival? Weekly Playboy suggests five precautions to be taken.
First, find ways to market skills that are likely to be popular with foreigners, such as a chefs license for sushi or kaiseki ryori.
Second, they should work out and improve their physical condition, such as through training in the martial arts, which will give them a better chance when and if public order collapses.
Third is for young people to keep close ties to their parents, who may be needed to offer support.
Fourth is to become adept at English, although other foreign languages, even Chinese, may help.
And fifth is to seek 100% self-sufficiency through an eco-oriented lifestyle. Raise your own chickens, catch your own fish and live off the land!
Gosh....what kill joys....
We have Obama....if he can fix and heal the planet...he can fix anything...unicorns and skittles for everyone is just around the corner in the Summer of Recovery III or is that IV ?
Parson Malthus
Prior to the 20th century, few people even at the highest levels of society, could claim all of that.
I believe that a global financial collapse is coming. Food? Clean water? Medical care? Leisure? Safety? I think all of that may largely disappear.
And I'm not convinced it will be a bad thing. In the 20th century we built a Tower of Babel. We tried to build paradise on earth, where no personal responsibility was required, and everyone was entitled to lots of goodies. Of course, we had to accept lots of Big Government intrusion to make all of that possible.
I am not convinced that people in 1990 were significantly happier than people in, say, 1830. A lower standard of living might actually be a good thing, if it restores individual liberty.
No mention, of course, of getting and practicing with firearms. Japan does not allow private ownership of same. Thus, in a collapse, there will be a quick division: 5% of the population with weapons and thus food and shelter, and 95% of the population as victims and as food.
The Horror.
The... Horror...
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&gs_nf=1&cp=12&gs_id=26&xhr=t&q=cannibalism+in+china
[And fifth is to seek 100% self-sufficiency through an eco-oriented lifestyle. Raise your own chickens, catch your own fish and live off the land!]
Aquaponics (pronounced: /ˈækwəˈpɒnɨks/) is a sustainable food production system that combines a traditional aquaculture (raising aquatic animals such as fish, crayfish or prawns in tanks) with hydroponics (cultivating plants in water) in a symbiotic environment. In the aquaculture, effluents accumulate in the water, increasing toxicity for the fish. This water is led to a hydroponic system where the by-products from the aquaculture are filtered out by the plants as vital nutrients, after which the cleansed water is recirculated back to the animals. The term aquaponics is a portmanteau of the terms aquaculture and hydroponic.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aquaponics
Introduction to Home Aquaponics (university of Hawaii)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-MJRB18T_o
And lots of other video resources on:
Time to start saving up! They say that in heaven, you get an American salary, a British house, a Chinese chef, and a Japanese wife.
In hell, you get a Chinese salary, a Japanese house, a British chef, and an American wife.
A lot of people have a sense that bad times are coming. The existing financial order has been right at the verge of unravelling since late 2007, in the entire developed world. We have the appearance of relative normalcy and freedom from want only by virtue or massive deficit spending. The sense that bad times are coming would thus appear to be entirely rational.
I’d rather be here than on a very heavily populated island such as Japan, in the event of such a thing. Starvation might become a very real and pressing concern. On the other hand, Japan has a level of social cohesion due to homogeneity that much of our country severely lacks.
It won’t be pretty for anybody, if it all comes down. I’m not at all certain that it’s even avoidable any longer. We’re all pretty far gone, as far as solvency. We’ll come out the other side with a different currency sans most of our savings, at a minimum, imho.
A few other professions also come to mind as popular with tourists.
That’s too much trouble when I can drop a hook in the river outside my back door.
[I believe that a global financial collapse is coming. Food? Clean water? Medical care? Leisure? Safety? I think all of that may largely disappear.]
Be Be Be Prepared the Motto of the Boy Scouts
Observe the foundation of Maslows hierarchy of needs:
Physiological needs
For the most part, physiological needs are obvious they are the literal requirements for human survival. If these requirements are not met, the human body simply cannot continue to function.
Air, water, and food are metabolic requirements for survival in all animals, including humans. Clothing and shelter provide necessary protection from the elements. The intensity of the human sexual instinct is shaped more by sexual competition than maintaining a birth rate adequate to survival of the species.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow%27s_hierarchy_of_needs
When the ability to satisfy those needs is threatened, animal instinct comes into play; and history demonstrates repeatedly that when this happens, its VERY ugly - even horrific.
Even the mere perception of such deprivation can trigger physiological survival mechanisms (fight or flight response).
Thank God there is a beautiful, relatively sustainable, solution that our Creator has made available just in time for the flood... and drain {badumpump}
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&sclient=psy-ab&q=flood+and+drain+aquaponics
If it works as advertised (and I'm seeing that it does) --
-- then there's no reason anyone who is willing to work should have to starve ever again.
[Thats too much trouble when I can drop a hook in the river outside my back door.]
Been there did that; but it’s not a solution for folks who’ve been snared and trapped in urbanistan.
Earthquakes don't cause recessions. Central banks that print too much money cause recessions. It holds true for Japan, too.
How about learning to manufacture cheap radiation meters using free instructions:
If I lived in Japan or the Pacific Northwest, I would already be using one of these to check my food and water.
If Japan goes Mad Max, the citizens need to use a few of those machine tools to quickly make some firearms. I’m sure a competent machinist could start turning out muzzle loaders and primers in a week. In a couple of weeks they could be turning out semi-autos. I’m sure there are drawings on the web.
Formulating the rest of the requirements is left as an exercise for the student.
Obama traps people. He is opinionated and always imposes what he thinks is best (but really knows is crap). IT’s like, we really do not care other than him leaving us alone, but that is out of the question, you see, he has to have his nose and credit into everything.
Kurtz: Are you an assassin?
Willard: I'm a soldier.
Kurtz: You're neither. You're an errand boy sent by grocery clerks to collect a bill.
Living off the land is very hard. Most people couldn't do it. And if we go back to a 1830’s level, the vast majority of people will starve to death. We can't farm like that, we don't have the animals for starters. That and the collapse in yields will mean world wide starvation.
Pfl.
I read thru these posts and no one mentioned - WAR. Someone will give those starving persons weapons and point them toward the still rich countries. Who knows perhaps some one will issue money that has some value. Perhaps a state in these great United States.
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