Skip to comments.Georgia Primary: Gingrich 33%, Santorum 28%, Romney 20%, Paul 9% (Rasmussen)
Posted on 02/23/2012 9:42:03 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich leads the pack in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the Republican Primary race in his home state of Georgia. A new telephone survey of Likely Georgia Republican Primary Voters shows Gingrich with 33% support, followed by former Senator Rick Santorum at 28%. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney runs third with 20% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with nine percent (9%). Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
The favorable margin for Newt will only get larger after last night’s AZ debate. His opposition have hit their high water marks.
Mitt at a distant third looks good.
Romney has a way of whittling down Gingrich leads with attack adds. Hopefully that doesn’t happen here.
I wouldn’t describe a 5 point lead as easily winning ones home state but then again I’m not a big fan of Newt. Though I am certainly a big enough fan to vote for him over Obama should Newt prevail.
Yes and look for his numbers to get better after last night.
Romney is running about $700,000 in negative ads against Newt in the state, and Newt I believe, has run ZERO Georgia tv ads against Romney.
Newt Ginrich is going to be here where I live in Kennewick, WA area today at 11:00 a.m.. I would like to go see him but at my age it isn’t going to happen. They said you need to be there no later than 9:00 a.m. Very little parking at the Red Lyon hotel, so would have to park elsewhere and walk. Then inside there will be no seating so have to stand while Newt gives his speech. :-(
Georgia has a lot of retired Northern Liberals and attracting new industries with an influx of workers.
The media is driving these numbers away from Newt - by ignoring or writing him off.
Note that Romney is still referred to as the ‘front runner’. Santorum is getting the religious/social conservative vote. FWIW Savannah’s Catholics and Jews have always had an awesome alliance.
I wouldn’t call 5% easy, but I would expect notwithstanding this poll that he should be able to win Georgia.
The key is to have Santorum 2nd, and not Romney. It doesn’t look like Gingrich is going to break 50% for the state, I guess he could break 50% in some districts.
There are 31 statewide delegates, assigned proportionately with a 20% threshold, so it would be great if Santorum was built up more, or even Ron Paul, to drive Romney below 20%. Trashing Santorum in Georgia would be extremely counterproductive. 3 statewide go to the winner, the other 28 are assigned by direct proportion (so if the poll here was the actual outcome, statewide Gingrich=15. Santorum=10, Romney=7.
There are 42 district delegates, divided into 14 districts. For each district, if a candidate has 50% they get all 3, if not 2 to first, 1 to second. If every single district was split like this poll, that would be 28 gingrich, 14 santorum, but obviously with a 33/28% split, it is unlikely the ratio is the same; also Romney with 20% may well have 1st in a couple of democratic-leaning districts.
Other new polls today:
Michigan Republican Presidential Primary @Detroit Free Press/WXYZ
Santorum 37, Romney 34, Paul 10, Gingrich 7
NEWTORUM +10 OVER Willard the Lib (BIG thanks again to Newt for not contesting Michigan hence allowing conservatives to help Rick)
Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary @Franklin & Marshall
Santorum 45, Romney 16, Gingrich 9, Paul 7
NEWTORUM +38 OVER Willard the Lib
That should have been Gingrich 14, Santorum 10, Romney 7.
The key is to shut Romney out of delegates as much as possible, which means driving his total support below 20%.
Unfortunately, this is one of the few polls that shows Santorum above Romney in georgia. The RCP average is Gingrich 34%, Romney 23%, Santorum 20%.
It’s odd how those migrating northern liberals bring their liberalism south, but the North remains even more liberal when they move out.
There is a pretty consistent GOP-Establishment vote in GA. Many like to follow the party’s recommendation instead of thinking for themselves.
Pennsylvania actually has all their delegates officially “unpledged”, and most (59) are elected by district separate from a presidential “preference” vote. One would expect that candidates have slates of delegates for each district, and that voters would select the slate corresponding to their preference.
If so, it is possible if Santorum has such a large lead that he would actually be the plurality winner in all 18 districts, and take all the delegates, but in reality it is likely that someone will beat him in one or more districts.
The rest of the delegates are selected by the central committee, and will probably just vote for whoever has the most delegates when they get to the convention.
It’s going to be hard for the PA Republicans to win their liberal state in the fall. I would imagine huge Democrat opposition there to Santorum if he were the upset nominee.
I doubt it’s the migration - more likely voters are media driven. Keep hearing how mitt is the front runner - leads the less informed to believe what they hear.
Let's hope Mittens loses MI too
yes, that’s what I think will be the biggest impact from last nights debate. Newt secured Georgia for sure after last night (which he was in danger of losing before)
Newt also likely take Tennessee after last night’s debate.
Gingrich will be in Nashville next Monday.
The trend from the last poll is a lot different, he did lead by 15 points, so he has lost 10 points. Tick, tick, tick, tick,
33% in Georgia is disastrously and embarrassingly bad for someone whose only elective offices are from that state. And it’s a proportional primary.
Where are his delegates supposed to come from?
If Santorum was leading, but only at 33% in PA, or the same for Romney in MA, people would be falling all over themselves talking about how bad a sign that was for either candidate.
Santo’s big lead won’t stay at that margin if and when Mitten carpet bombs him in PA.
There has been a lot of negative advertising running against Newt in GA, but it doesn’t look like Romney is getting thing out of it.
I’m convinced that, God forbid, both Newt and Santorum should have sudden heart attacks (making it a two man race between Paul and Romney), that Ron Paul would end up being the nominee.
The fact is, the vast majority of GOP voters DON’T WANT ROMNEY.
The one thing we, as a country, can’t do is keep going in the direction we’ve been heading. The one GOP candidate I’m 100% certain will keep us going in the same direction is Romney. We might get there a little slower than Obama would take us, but we’ll end up in the same place.
As I said, Gingrich’s lead will increase in GA by Super Tuesday.
“The favorable margin for Newt will only get larger after last nights AZ debate. His opposition have hit their high water marks.”
My point is that the fact that the Georgia polls are even a discussion topic is a horrific sign for Newt.
If Georgia is the only Super Tuesday state he wins, and he’s Third in most other places, how is his candidacy viable?
The election is fluid. I would not assume or a lock that Santorum will hold his leads in other states like Tennessee after his last night’s debate performance. Almost 2 weeks left until Super Tuesday, which is almost a lifetime in this election season.
Rick’s polling superiority is stronger than you think.
For a conservative who was double teamed by two flaming liberals last night, Rick was fine as could be expected.
Will the Twin Libs, Willard & Ron Paul continue their no-stop mudslinging towards Santorum?
Of course. Bring it on!!!!
Santo didn’t think it through before the debate on how he would respond effectively to those obvious questions about his big gov spending and voting record. He was unprepared. He got bogged down by it.
“Obvious questions” tag-teamed from the biggest earmarker in Congress (that is Ron Paul, btw) and from Willard the Massachusetts liberal who ran to the left of the late Ted Kennedy and was co-architect together of the largest spending bill of all (that is RomneyCare/ObamaCare).
And then there was that audience bought and paid for by Willard and the Mormons with the libs at CNN calling the shots...
All in all, Rick the Conservative Catholic did fine.
Will see if the polls do hold up for Rick...that is in doubt.
What you miss in your effort to bash Newt supporters is this: having won statewide themselves, the pressure is on Romney and Santorum both to far out perform their rivals in MA and PA respectively.
If either were doing 33% it would be disastrous because it meant the very Republicans who once chose them as standard bearers statewide had abandoned them in droves.
It really was that bad. It was a train wreck, only missing a YouTube moment to seal his fate. He can't afford another debate problem which is why he and Romney had both bailed out on the pre-Super Tuesday match.
Santorum was clearly nervous, stumbling for words, rambling, offered tortured rationalizing ... it was embarrassing. He wasn't prepared for the obvious and this was only his first taste of the spotlight.
With good reason Santorum and Romney cut and run from the debate ahead of Super Tuesday. The stakes are high and both men lack confidence. They are playing defense.
Despite an awful performance, Santorum is likely to save himself with a win in Michigan. Both Romney and Santorum are trying to suck the oxygen out of Newt's campaign ahead of Super Tuesday. Maybe it'll work--if it does, it's to the detriment of us all.
Outside social issues, Rick's hardly conservative. Was he conservative introducing and voting for over a half-billion to Amtrak's $900 million budget? Was he conservative voting to confirm Sotomayor for the 2nd Circuit knowing she'd be a likely Dem pick for the Supreme Court and was, in fact, Obama's first choice? Is his "home schooling" in Virginia by siphoning off $72,000 from a PA local school district a conservative thing to do? These are things that helped sink him in PA and don't begin to touch the problems of his record.
If only it were that way in every state.
His performance didn’t remind me of Perry’s, but exactly of Romney’s in South Carolina. Remember Romney sputtering over his tax returns, an obvious question he should have been prepared for, and the audience booing him? The exact same dynamic existed with Rick in last night’s debate, although he probably had even less good answers than Romney did in South Carolina. After that, Romney fell, what, 20 points in the polls? There is no floor to how fall Santorum could fall, since his wins were still highly unique circumstances, first spending 6 months knocking on every door in Iowa and then winning in little-contested states. His wins were not based on fundamentally strong support. Newt has a big opportunity to surge now if he can find a way to keep communicating with the voters.
I hope Obama gets his fiery desserts one day for all the evil and misery he has and will cause and if he gets re-elected I hope Romney goes right along with him.
Yes! Now if one or two OTHER candidates were gone we’d really be getting this show on the road!
Jan Brewer needs to step up to the plate right now, as does Sarah Palin. They have given him positive mention, stop the crap and do the right thing ladies.
By the way Santorum has ads here in Ohio depicting mitt Romney sniping ricky with a paintball gun. This is such a positive uplifting vision. Lol
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