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Posted on 02/05/2012 7:22:13 PM PST by SeekAndFind
INDIANAPOLIS -- On one last Hail Mary try, Tom Brady heaved it up for his two star tight ends in the end zone. Neither Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez, who both got a hand in the play, could come down with it.
The New York Giants beat the New England Patriots 21-17 in Super Bowl XLVI, the second time the Giants beat the Patriots in the last four years in the NFL's title game.
Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw scored the go-ahead touchdown with 0:57 left in the game.
(Excerpt) Read more at boston.com ...
Gronkowski was in the best position to catch the tip on the last play of the game....if he was 100%, he might have been able to dive and make the catch.
Who won?
“There was at least one other play to run and a 25 yard field goal is not automatic. Plenty can go wrong. “
My sentiments exactly. Must be the conservatism in me. .
The “fieldgoal alternative” assumes getting the clock down to at most, 17 seconds, while hustling the field goal team onto the field and the right players off with no confusion, with the referee saying when the play clock starts.
Among other things, there is an elevated chance of an miscue on the snap from center. Even though the game was well played by both teams (no turnovers that I can remember), there were penalties against both teams for having 12 players on the field earlier in the game.
When you have championship quality players (or high quality people in any business for that matter) it’s a good idea not to overcoach. In the end, with the Pats needing a touchdown, the best thing that Beliceck’s micromanaging could produce was a predictable 50 yard Hail Mary.
“Man, I hate to see games decided by bad officiating.”
And with that, I’m sure we can all agree....
He is last on the depth chart when I'm looking for a Giants player to seal a game.
An article in Slate analyzes the probabilities of each strategy. The probability of the Giants' winning by killing the clock and attempting the field goal is calculated at 98%. The probability of the Giants' winning by scoring the uncontested touchdown and giving the Patriots a minute and a timeout to answer with a touchdown was computed at 88%. In other words, milking the clock gave the Pats a 2% chance of winning, while letting the Giants score gave them a 12% chance. That's a six times greater probability of New England winning the game. Here's the link.
All that is stupid in light of the fact that Brady had an entire game to score more than 17 points and couldn’t do it, so the liklihood of his team scoring 7 more in 58 seconds was not good. Folks should ignore crap like you’re trying to float because it does not take into the calculus the history of the game up to the 58 seconds. Defenses win super bowls. The Ginats’ defense won the game by shutting Brady and company down for only 17 points. How many points per game did the Pats avergae the whole year? ... But not against Piere-Paul & co. defenses!
Brady did set a Super Bowl record by completing 16 passes in a row. In this game. Yes, the Giants’ defense held him down. But we are not comparing things in a vacuum. We are comparing the Giants defense ability to stop the Pats with a minute to go and one timeout to the ability of Lawrence Tynes to kick an extra point. Is the probability of making that field goal under 98%? Is the probability of stopping the Patriots from answering with a touchdown greater than 98%? How is “what I am floating—crap?” Unless you can quantify how your preferred strategy is superior to Belichick’s, you are merely using anecdotal evidence to support what is a question of probability.
Without any sort of context, taking a knee and getting tackled at the two makes sense.
If your kicker is David Akers, perhaps it would be foolish to try to score a touchdown.
But to pass up a guaranteed six points-when you're behind with less than a minute to go-in favor of a field goal attempt by a spotty kicker who almost missed two field goals under forty yards earlier in the game is absolute madness, Brady or no Brady.
Believe me, I would have had my heart in my throat awaiting that last short field goal attempt. If he makes it—Giants are Super Bowl Champs. If he misses it, they’re not. The enormity of the situation does create an unknown factor. I’m not the biggest Tynes fan either, but, historically, from chip-shot range, he has been very good. Lifetime, he’s 56 of 57 from 20-29 yards away, 4 for 4 from inside the 20, and 311 of 317 on extra points. So, in that which we can measure, we’re looking at 98%. We can’t measure what’s in his heart or his head in a make-or-break situation. Belichick felt like the odds were so far against his team, he was willing to give up a go-ahead touchdown to avoid a potential game-winning field goal attempt from short range. And I certainly watched the last minute unfold with enough trepidation and alarm that I can’t disagree with his logic.
I would have been hyperventilating if it had come down to a Tynes field goal, but Brady with the ball-even after Tuck's sack-was nerve-wracking.
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