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TNR: Yes, Newt’s Up in the Polls. No, You Shouldn’t Take His Candidacy Seriously.
The New Republic ^ | 12/02/2011 | Jonathan Bernstein

Posted on 12/02/2011 1:31:35 PM PST by SeekAndFind

Newt Gingrich is having an impressive national polling surge. His chances of grabbing the GOP presidential nomination have spiked up to over 30 percent at Intrade this week, and the media is full of stories about whether it’s time to start taking him seriously. Here’s my advice: don’t. None of the recent polling means he’s going to win the Republican nomination, nor does it even mean that he’s going to have a serious shot at it. Newt is still the same wildly unelectable candidate he was five minutes ago, and the polls that say otherwise are no better indicator of voters’ true preferences than a game of darts.

The reasons why we don’t have to take Newt seriously are many, but the most obvious is that, despite his recent polling, he’s still the same candidate with all the same baggage. He’s still got his history of deviations from party orthodoxy on practically every issue, and the ethics violations, and the marital problems. He’s still the same guy who wound up not being trusted at all by those who worked with him when he was in office. And he’s still got a long history of just not being very popular with anyone outside of the most intense of intense partisans—and even they are likely aware that he’s risky at best and more likely pure poison in a general election.

The lack of endorsements by party actors is the second factor working against Newt, and it suggests that the people who have the most at stake in the nomination see him the same way as I do. We’ve seen this year (Donald Trump?!?) and in the past (John Anderson 1980? Jerry Brown 1992? Rudy Giuliani 2008?) that practically anyone can get a rush of attention and therefore a surge in the polls,

(Excerpt) Read more at tnr.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: conspiracy; donedeal; gingrich; newt; nominee; polls; thefixisin
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1 posted on 12/02/2011 1:31:43 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Well there you have it The New Republic said so. I assume Newt is closing up shop as I type.


2 posted on 12/02/2011 1:34:10 PM PST by mk2000
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To: SeekAndFind

The left media, in this case the mildly left, once again telling Republicans who can and cannot be their nominee. And Republicans eat it up.


3 posted on 12/02/2011 1:34:17 PM PST by xkaydet65 (IACTA ALEA EST!!!')
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To: mk2000

There are more lefty articles posted here than DUmmieland.


4 posted on 12/02/2011 1:36:22 PM PST by jessduntno ("They say the world has become too complex for simple answers... they are wrong." - RR)
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To: mk2000

I think I’d advise Newt to get a 2nd opinion...maybe from Susan Estrich....


5 posted on 12/02/2011 1:39:16 PM PST by bigbob
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To: bigbob

Susan Estrich Yike!


6 posted on 12/02/2011 1:40:44 PM PST by mk2000
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To: xkaydet65

If FreeRepublic is a barometer (and I believe it is); there was no candidate met with more skepticism than Newt. However, following the debates, re-examining his impact as SOH against all odds, and noting the lack of support from his former RINO colleagues (no cronyism there); Newt is being accepted as the most informed and most able individual to take down the incumbent.

FReepers who now support Newt are not ‘bowled over’ they are not cultists, they are not stupid - but realists.


7 posted on 12/02/2011 1:40:44 PM PST by sodpoodle ( Newter the Democrats - top to bottom.)
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To: SeekAndFind

That’s ok....I don’t take Obama’s Presidency seriously either.

I take his destruction of America seriously, but not his Presidency.


8 posted on 12/02/2011 1:49:47 PM PST by G Larry ("I dream of a day when a man is judged by the content of his Character.")
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To: sodpoodle

It’s only going to get worse in the coming months. When it becomes apparent to the LSM that Mittens is toast, their desperation will be something to behold.

FR will be an interesting place in the coming year. Hope it doesn’t get to the point where I need to take a sabatical, but on the plus side, that will free up a lot of my time to campaign for Gingrich.


9 posted on 12/02/2011 1:50:37 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: sodpoodle

>> Newt is being accepted as the most informed and most able individual to take down the incumbent... FReepers who now support Newt are not ‘bowled over’ they are not cultists, they are not stupid - but realists.

I agree. There’s a lot about Newt I’m not comfortable with, but I’m giving him a second look because:

a) He DOES have significant experience, and he’s bright and articulate;
b) He did a bang-up job in the debates, while my own favorite (Perry) shot himself in the foot; and
c) When counted out, he didn’t quit nor did he lose hope, he just kept at it and used his strengths to put himself back in the thick of it. Persistance and determination are traits I like to see in an executive.

Oh, and d) HE’S NOT MYTH ROMNEY!!!!


10 posted on 12/02/2011 1:57:36 PM PST by Nervous Tick (Trust in God, but row away from the rocks!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Thanks for telling me what I should do Jonathan...apparently you seem to think we are all just sheep out here waiting to be told what to think. I believe I’ll just go ahead and form my own opinion, and treat your advice with the respect it deserves. Buh bye now.


11 posted on 12/02/2011 2:02:10 PM PST by ez ("Abashed the Devil stood and felt how awful goodness is." - Milton, "Paradise Lost")
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To: mk2000
The poll numbers are cooked, nearly 70 percent of those polled said the were not committed to the person and they could change their mind. In short it is a long way to go and Judy has not got the thing won, number four may still win.

last election judy had a lock and was sure to win, mccain was in fourth. What happened.

12 posted on 12/02/2011 2:04:53 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: SeekAndFind

A lot of the anti-Newt stuff on this site isn’t worth the bytes it’s written with. Out-of-context quotes, misrepresented positions, etc. But his history does suggest there are real issues with his day-to-day consistency with people and his ability to inspire trust. He’s got to project more humility and convince people he’s gained wisdom with age. Character is destiny and while I like Newt, I’m nervous that he’ll make a few mistakes and get “Borked” by the media.


13 posted on 12/02/2011 2:04:53 PM PST by vekzen
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To: SeekAndFind

Well I guess Newt will just pull out and go home. No point paying any attention to every poll out there showing him in the lead.


14 posted on 12/02/2011 2:06:32 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Where was Newt in 2000? Where was Newt in 2008? Why didn’t Newt help lead the charge against the commies instead of tucking his tail and running away? Is it because he was hypocritical...he had baggage...but now he is back... Can we trust him?

Many people on here despised him for years and still do. They used to wish he wasn’t on Fox News all the time. So after all is said and done we shall see now if Newt is the real deal. But I’m 50/50 on him. I like him and agree with some of the stuff he has been saying. But some people still are lukewarm to him.

And rightly so. He has done and supported things that conservatives don’t agree with at times.


15 posted on 12/02/2011 2:06:41 PM PST by Mozilla
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To: Raebie

You probably said the same thing last time when judy claimed it was his to lose.


16 posted on 12/02/2011 2:08:14 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: org.whodat

You are truly getting to be a tiresome bore.


17 posted on 12/02/2011 2:10:35 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: Raebie

**FR will be an interesting place in the coming year.**

You are being diplomatic - it’s full frontal attack now!!!

Stay safe and sane;)


18 posted on 12/02/2011 2:13:13 PM PST by sodpoodle ( Newter the Democrats - top to bottom.)
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To: Raebie

The poll results are what they are, newts support is 3 feet wide and as thick as a sheet of paper. That was the poll internals per fox news.


19 posted on 12/02/2011 2:13:33 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: sodpoodle

I don’t see how Newt will get the social conservative vote. Ever. I’m not even an evangelical and I’ll write in a name or vote third party before I help the Republican party sink even MORE into degeneracy, RINO-ism, and hypocrisy.

I can’t stand hearing ‘conservatives’ moan and cry about how they got ‘backstabbed’ when they knowingly supported a RINO. That’s not getting backstabbed, it’s getting exactly what you voted for. The biggest chunk of responsibility for stopping RINOs lies with US - stop voting for them, stop making excuses for them, and above all stop pretending to be surprised when they go all liberal!

I finally de-lurked here when the Giuliani Purge took place last time around, and now I see people defending the same scumbag, Rudyish antics? With almost the exact same arguments as the now-banned Rudyites used to toss around.

If Newt is nominated, the election is over. And frankly, it’s kind of a McCain Quandry - is it better to get a RINO elected so that we all get blamed for things getting screwed up, or let an incompetent dem president take the blame for screwing everything up instead?

So who does that leave to vote for? It’s looking pretty bleak. I’ll settle for anyone who isn’t a flip-flopper or serial adulterer (or both) at this point.


20 posted on 12/02/2011 2:14:29 PM PST by COgamer
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To: org.whodat

“The poll results are what they are, newts support is 3 feet wide and as thick as a sheet of paper.”

That, my little friend, is where you’re wrong.


21 posted on 12/02/2011 2:17:16 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: sodpoodle

Lol...I try. It’s been challenging, but I’ve been making liberal use of the little ‘x’ on the upper right of my screen. And my backspace key.

;-)


22 posted on 12/02/2011 2:19:27 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: COgamer

Horse Hockey! America has become a junkyard because of the poor economy and international downgrading caused by 0bama. Right now we need a “junkyard dawg” to protect us and turn both around. And, Newt, baggage and all, is that dawg!


23 posted on 12/02/2011 2:21:07 PM PST by StraightDave (.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney fans, while trying to avoid detection, will push hard for any other candidates and against Gingrich.


24 posted on 12/02/2011 2:22:16 PM PST by familyop ("Don't worry, they'll row for a month before they figure out I'm fakin' it." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: COgamer

These are perilous times that demand unusual sacrifice.

If a conservative candidate is not stepping up to the challenge and others who do are not electable due to lack of leadership, experience, support, money, exposure, charisma, eloquence, success in the public or private sector, unimpeachable character..............we have what we have.

Stand up for the alternative to take back our Republic.

Or fall back. Obama says thank you.


25 posted on 12/02/2011 2:24:36 PM PST by sodpoodle ( Newter the Democrats - top to bottom.)
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To: sodpoodle
“FReepers who now support Newt are not ‘bowled over’ they are not cultists, they are not stupid - but realists.”

I will continue to post this wherever I deem appropriate...

Newt is a hollow man...with an uncanny ability to use good words and fair speeches to deceive the minds of the simple.

He has an atrocious non conservative record, established over many years, conservatives are realistic and will not be decieved into believing this man has changed, just in the last couple of years.

Beware the NEWT!

26 posted on 12/02/2011 2:43:56 PM PST by PoloSec ( Believe the Gospel: how that Christ died for our sins, was buried and rose again)
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To: Raebie

So you were not on judys team and winning last time, sure I believe it. Newt is a walking hand grenade with a missing pin it is just a matter of time until he pops off, maybe he already has.


27 posted on 12/02/2011 2:44:59 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: org.whodat

Who is judy and WTH are you talking about?


28 posted on 12/02/2011 2:46:55 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: Raebie
You really have no knowledge of who judy is and the prior election cycle and you are commenting on who's on second, well damn.
29 posted on 12/02/2011 2:56:16 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: org.whodat

By ‘judy’ are you referring to Giuliani?

What are you, 13? Do you snicker when someone passes gas too?


30 posted on 12/02/2011 3:00:36 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: Raebie

Free Republic is likely to become Third-Party-I-want-to-lose-to-obama central.

Because obviously that is the only way we can show conservative we are!

The good news is that when those days begin, it won’t matter out in the real world.

obama is going to lose to the GOP nominee.

I hope it’s Gingrich (unless miraculously someone else emerges somehow...the ultimate dream being the convention itself)


31 posted on 12/02/2011 3:04:24 PM PST by ConservativeDude
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To: Raebie
Everybody on fr calls him judy because of his dressing in drag, sorry you do not think it funny. His picture in drag has been posted here 10,000 times. And not once by me.
32 posted on 12/02/2011 3:08:13 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: Raebie
Everybody on fr calls him judy because of his dressing in drag, sorry you do not think it funny. His picture in drag has been posted here 10,000 times. And not once by me.
33 posted on 12/02/2011 3:09:23 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: org.whodat

I was never a Giuliani supporter. I think he did a great job as mayor of NYC and he wouldn’t put up with this OWS crap, that’s for sure.

Last election, I was all in for Fred Thompson early on. I was very disappointed when he dropped out. I ended up voting for McCain, largely because of Palin.

I will vote for anyone who runs against Obama. I sincerely hope it’s Newt. That OK with you?


34 posted on 12/02/2011 3:13:31 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: org.whodat

I was never a Giuliani supporter. I think he did a great job as mayor of NYC and he wouldn’t put up with this OWS crap, that’s for sure.

Last election, I was all in for Fred Thompson early on. I was very disappointed when he dropped out. I ended up voting for McCain, largely because of Palin.

I will vote for anyone who runs against Obama. I sincerely hope it’s Newt. That OK with you?


35 posted on 12/02/2011 3:13:47 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: org.whodat; Raebie

Odd. I’ve never noticed him being called judy here...


36 posted on 12/02/2011 3:17:00 PM PST by Mr Rogers ("they found themselves made strangers in their own country")
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To: sodpoodle
FReepers who now support Newt are not ‘bowled over’ they are not cultists, they are not stupid - but realists.

I'm taking a closer look at Newt, it will never be head over heels like it was with Sarah, not even as high as with Herman, but a more cool, sober, hard examination of Newt.

Given the choices, Newt is looking better than I thought.

I'd really like to see Newt and the one doing the seven, three hour long Lincon-Douglas style debates, with obummer reading his answers from TOTUS, and Newt still kicking his ass.

37 posted on 12/02/2011 3:24:10 PM PST by USS Alaska (Nuke The Terrorist Savages)
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To: org.whodat
Everybody on fr calls him judy...

You are FOS. I've been here apx 14 years and have never heard him called that before you. Pat yourself on the back for originality, but don't speak for all FReepers, we'll pull you up by the short-hairs.

38 posted on 12/02/2011 3:39:34 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (To Obama, bipartisanship is giving the opposition the opportunity to do as they are told. (WGensert))
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To: Cyber Liberty

Thank you. I’ve been here for years and had no idea who ‘judy’ was. Lol...


39 posted on 12/02/2011 3:43:13 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: Raebie

Org.dumbo is about 12 years old and lives in his mom’s basement...Paultard...he’s best ignored..


40 posted on 12/02/2011 3:46:06 PM PST by magritte
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To: magritte

I was only off by one year. I’m good!

:-)


41 posted on 12/02/2011 3:49:50 PM PST by Raebie (WS)
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To: Cyber Liberty
Really, and I only speak for my self, but then I do not claim to have read everything posted here. Man you must be busy.
42 posted on 12/02/2011 3:54:51 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: org.whodat

You said “everybody” calls Guiliani “Judy,” and I (among others) simply pointed out the idiocy of such a claim. I know you are better than this. And yes, I am busier than all get-out. Work is like that when they lay everybody around you off. You’re happy for the job, but the workload of a “left behind” is murder.


43 posted on 12/02/2011 3:59:23 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (To Obama, bipartisanship is giving the opposition the opportunity to do as they are told. (WGensert))
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To: Cyber Liberty
Then again about four months ago I ran into a man in a waiting room, we talked for about and hour. Two months later I saw him again, and said hay how you doing have not seen you in a while. He looked and me and said have we met before and I said yes and where. The other day I saw him again, about three months later, in his mind we met for the first time again, I just did not bother to say otherwise. So nice to meet you for the first time again.
44 posted on 12/02/2011 4:01:53 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: org.whodat

LOL! He too must be a “left behind.” I feel for that guy. Maybe I’m just getting to be an old fart.


45 posted on 12/02/2011 4:04:01 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (To Obama, bipartisanship is giving the opposition the opportunity to do as they are told. (WGensert))
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To: magritte

Stupid is as stupid does, you have surpassed yourself.


46 posted on 12/02/2011 4:04:01 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: Cyber Liberty

That was a true story, I saw him a few days ago again, this time I said hi and walked away.


47 posted on 12/02/2011 4:06:20 PM PST by org.whodat (Just another heartless American, hated by "AMNESTY" Newt, Willard, Perry and his fellow supporters)
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To: vekzen

Yes, you are right to be concerned.

Newt might well self-destruct if given enough rope.

I hope he doesn’t. He’s not my favorite but he’s my second to best favorite.


48 posted on 12/02/2011 4:08:18 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
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To: Mr Rogers

Don’t worry. I’ve been here a while and he was only called Judy by a precious few.

It took me a second to realize who the poster was talking about.


49 posted on 12/02/2011 4:11:33 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
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To: magritte

And the sad thing is, she lets him have access to the computer.


50 posted on 12/02/2011 4:12:44 PM PST by altura (Perry 2012)
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