Forget Newt's surge. Romney is still the favorite

The Washington Post ^ | 11/30/11 | Jonathan Bernstein

[Retro Llama]

Does the Newt Gingrich polling surge mean that Mitt Romney is finished, or at least in serious trouble? No — in fact, Romney remains a heavy favorite in the race, regardless of what the current headlines lifted from those surveys might say.

Gingrich has jumped out in front, sometimes dramatically so, in several polls (see here and here for the latest Florida numbers). One theory of why Romney has fallen behind Gingrich is an oft-repeated myth that there is a “low ceiling” on Romney's support, with Romney unable to rise above 25% or so.

But it's just a myth. On the voter level, there is no appetite for a Stop Romney campaign. A new Washington Post/ABC News poll confirms something you don't hear much: Republicans and conservatives may not have settled on Mitt Romney as their nominee, but they really do like him. There is no ceiling. That suggests he still has an excellent chance to eventually expand his support well beyond his current numbers....

[Biggirl]

Wait until the REAL primary voting starts.

[rhombus]

Wait until the REAL primary voting starts.

Boy, that's what we sure found out in 2008.

[Lets Roll NOW]

Forget the Washington Post, we will not let the media pick our favorite.

[Da Coyote]

So, the WaPo evidently polled all 1,000 of their readers?

[sodpoodle]

Blanks filling in the blanks for the blanks,

____________remains a heavy favorite in the race, regardless of what the current headlines lifted from those surveys might say.

[Redleg Duke]

Romney remains the heavy favorite for the DNC and MSM.

He is the best Republican nominee to suppress conservative voters.

[WVNan]

I see the establishment is trying to push Mitt on us. do I believe them or my own stubborn heart?

[apillar]

Mitt Romney, just like John McCain in 2008, is the media darling and their chosen candidate, and just like McCain, as soon as Romney secures the nomination they will turn on him and dump all the dirty laundry they've been holding back to clear the path for his nomination. Since the media's REAL darling is Obama. However if disaster were to occur and Obama lost, they could live with Obama-lite (Romney) for the next four years.

[mk2000]

Is this called praying out loud. Please please don’t vote for Newt, Barry won’t be able to debate him he will actually have to think on his feet and without help.

[ZX12R]

Romney remains a heavy favorite in the race,



Hey Fool, nobody here is voting for that used car salesman.

[Biggirl]

Well look at the recent surge Newt has experienced.

[svcw]

A favorite to whom? Establishment Republicans, the left, who? We know from past voting records Romney gets 94% of the mormon vote who are very loyal to him but other than that voting block what other group would support him? Romney is a liberal.

[Nonstatist]

Boy this guy is wrong, I think.

[Breto]

I watched parts of his interview with Bret Bair... Man this guy just makes my skin crawl. I would not vote for this skin walker to save my life.

[Sudetenland]

Romney didn't do himself any favors in his Brett Barr one-on-one interview and his post interview hissy-fit.

Clearly Mitt couldn't handle the tough questions and his ego couldn't handle being confronted with his own record and words.

The polling data, month after month clear do show that Mitt has a ceiling of about 25% when opposed by any other Republican.

This is just the WaPo whistling past the graveyard as their boy continues to fail. Mitt may still win the nomination, because that is how the primary system is set up--to prevent the upset candidate from winning--but he has a high negatives hurdle to overcome.

[Chuzzlewit]

in the voting booth, I honestly think we conservatives will pick the guy with the baggage over the guy with the nice haircut... nothing against Romney, and I’d vote for him over Zero, but it’s going to be Newt for me.

a “Stop Romney campaign” ?? Who the heck has the time? what a silly idea. We will vote for the guy we think can win against the Prez, who simply has to be stopped.

[Cheerio]

Mittens is the only GOP candidate that will force me to leave the box for President blank. I WILL NOT BE COWED INTO VOTING FOR ANOTHER "MODERATE", e.g. McLame, UNLESS Palin, Bachmann, or Cain is the VP choice.

[eclecticEel]

The lefties want Romney so bad they can taste it. Too bad the majority of primary voters are voting for “not-Romney”.

[altura]

The Newt surge was born of desperation. Nobody here wants Mitt and his numbers started high but have not moved at all.

When Cain began to fade and Newt did a good job in the debates, he began attracting followers in a huge way.

He is glib, knowledgable and kinda fun to listen to. He has a million good ideas but he almost has ADD in the way he switches back and forth. I don’t know how consistent he would be and how he would prioritize.

For example, I don’t think he would go all out for drill here, drill now, given that he was agreeing with Pelosi way too recently.

Drill here, drill now, is a big priority with me. Not only would it create jobs, but it would in a very short time, change our relations with Iran and the middle east.

Iran makes billions in oil money. They are spending millions on developing nuclear weapons. Doesn’t that scare anyone?

Let’s get our own oil and let them try to sell their sand.

We could take care of our own needs and probably have surplus to sell if we really went after our own resources.

But, with all his faults, if Perry can’t get a bounce (I still hope he can) Newt will be my choice.