Posted on 11/27/2011 4:02:39 PM PST by blam
Are Stocks Staring Into The Abyss?
Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Nov 27, 2011 - 12:04 PM
By: Robert McHugh PhD
Europe’s financial woes are serious. We believe the financial crisis will hit the fan starting in 2012 which will eventually lead to a political union of several major European nations, perhaps even a broader political union of western nations including Great Britain, the United States and Canada. It may be what results from developing global economic chaos. This is Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down underway from May 2nd, 2011, a dangerous Bear Market wave of long-term duration. Life will change by the time it finishes.
Germany’s benchmark bond offering failed Wednesday, which is an alarming development for Europe and for contagion risk to the rest of the globe, as up until now Germany has been seen as the rock that fortifies and protects a complete European meltdown, with a quarter of the continent’s GDP. Now we all know Germany has problems as well. Germany’s Central Bank had to buy 39 percent of the 6 billion euros offering ($10.0 billion equivalency). In other words, Germany just printed $3.9 billion equivalency dollars out of thin air to pay its bills. Weimer Republic anyone? Not good.
So what is happening? We are entering Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down, the mother of all Bear Markets. In the past, we have seen Bear markets affect the solvency of corporations and individuals. Now we see a new Bear Market affecting the solvency of sovereign nations and continents. This Bear market is on a Grand scale the likes of which we have not seen in centuries. Here is a chart showing the big picture and how past Bear markets fit in with the scale of this developing one:
Above is a Big Picture Historical Elliott Wave Labeling for the Dow Industrials. It now appears that Grand Supercycle wave {III} up completed May 2nd, 2011 with a Megaphone Top Jaws of Death pattern. This is a major Bearish topping pattern. We cannot be completely sure that this Cycle Degree wave V up finished its Megaphone pattern because if the fifth wave (E) up finished on May 2nd, 2011, it means it truncated or failed to rise to the upper boundary. This leaves open the possibility that wave (E) up may have one more strong rally left in it to reach the upper boundary. There are no hard and fast rules. If the top is in on May 2nd, 2011, then the mother of all declines, Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down, has started, which will be so bad, it could be a coming Tribulation period of political and economic upheaval, war, pestilence, and natural disasters. Then a golden era, Grand Supercycle degree wave {V} up will follow. The Great Depression was of Supercycle degree, wave (IV) down, and was not of Grand Supercycle degree, like the coming Bear Market will be, which means this developing Bear Market, which is in its infancy, will be worse.
Gosh. This sounds bad.
If you have money and aspire to get rich, jump on now!
Is this Elliot Wave stuff in any way founded in reality, or is it like divining the future through reading chicken entrails?
Will someone explain to me how that chart can predict natural disasters?
It IS bad.
On Wednesday, I put all my equities into a cash position. My cash will be put into precious metals (bullion coins and silver coins) ammo, and food supplies on Monday.
Merry Christmas, FRiends. It just might be our last in the world as we have known it.....
I don't know. I gave it some validity because the guy has a PhD.
"Robert McHugh Ph.D. is President and CEO of Main Line Investors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and can be reached at www.technicalindicatorindex.com.
it sounds so bad, the markets will go up 200 points on Monday
toss the dice and invest? or stuff the mattress?
Dear Blam, you are now talking to a regular person here. I have a 16 year old with a trust fund for college. Not much left of it now but what about...., never mind. Do I trust another funder with my lousey left over money or not?
A PHD ... pile-it higher and deeper. Mann, Jones, Hansen, Chu, etc. are all PHDs who if they said it was raining I would go outside and check!
Which industrialized nations would tie their currencies to ours, with our Federal Reserve printing money from thin air and preferentially give it to only providence knows which politically connected hooligans, under which rocks, and willy-nilly diluting the value of all other US dollars in private possession?
There are some reasons a very long bear market can happen. The demographics of the baby boomers retiring alone guarantees that a large group of people is starting to cash out of the stock markets, and this will continue for years. On the other end, Generation X is underwater in housing and will be for a long time, and the youngest generation is moving back home, unemployed, with crushing student loan debt. These two groups probably cannot replace the money flowing out from the boomers.
Yes, but what do the sheep entrails say?
No sheep entrails but the overall derivative “death star” grew $110 trillion in 2011. Yep, they are now over leveraging and betting multiples like 2008 didn’t happen. The total amount of these side bets is now sitting at over $700 trillion or 11 to 12 times the world GDP. This zero sum ponzi scheme will unravel when the next AIG or MF Global bites the dust and the counter parties (US taxpayer) will get stuck holding the bag through further FED intervention. The growth of $110 trillion in one year points to the ponzi scheme coming to an end as they must constantly expand the derivatives market artificially to make up for the real economic contraction and keep it from collapsing.
“These two groups probably cannot replace the money flowing out from the boomers.”
True, but there are plenty of worldwide Asian/BRIC investors that will spend money on performing stocks. I think that there will be an effect, but not as large as people may think.
>> “Yes, but what do the sheep entrails say?” <<
.
Take everything you own, along with all you can borrow, and throw it at the gods of wall street tomorrow morning.
>> “jump on now!” <<
.
That’ll make it easier for you to get out, huh?
Bert - Do I have the wrong kind of entrails? Oh great, no wonder all my predictions are wrong!
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