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Posted on 11/10/2011 1:24:48 PM PST by justsaynomore
Thursday, November 10
Florida Republican Presidential Primary Quinnipiac Romney 21, Cain 27, Gingrich 17, Perry 5, Paul 3, Bachmann 4, Huntsman 1, Santorum 1 Cain +6
Ohio Republican Presidential Primary Quinnipiac Cain 25, Romney 20, Gingrich 11, Paul 9, Perry 4, Bachmann 4, Huntsman 2, Santorum 1 Cain +5
Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary Quinnipiac Romney 17, Cain 17, Gingrich 13, Santorum 13, Perry 5, Paul 5, Bachmann 2, Huntsman 2 Tie
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Flip Flopney must be getting nervous.
Yep but Romney is still ‘looking better and better’. LOL I’m telling you the Romney folks must think we are fools. They really are starting to look just dumb with their Romney fixation. He has one thing against him and that hasn’t changes since 2008. The vast majority of GOP do not want him. They aren’t fooled by debate performances etc. He is in third place behind Newt now in some polls. I mean come on folks. If this is ascendency then maybe I just have the definition wrong. lol
Yep but Romney is still ‘looking better and better’.
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Glasses for you FRiend...
Willie Mitty is looking older and older and haggard to boot...
a 3 day drunk would have improved him last night...
:)
Romney continues to be mired in that 20-25% range. Eventually all those Gingrich, Santorum, Bachmann, Paul, etc., votes are going to have to go somewhere.
all those Gingrich, Santorum, Bachmann, Paul, etc., votes are going to have to go somewhere.
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Who do you think they will endorse ???
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When can we stop referring to Romney as the “frontrunner”?
Cain overtakes Perry, for good. :)
Giving Cain full value for PA and VA, and giving CO, and ID to Romney I get this:
Romney: (18)
WA, OR, CA, NV, UT,
MI, MD, DE, NJ, NY,
VT, NH, MA, CT, RI,
MN, CO, ID
Cain: (17)
AZ, HI, TX, SD
NE, IA, WI, IL
OH, WV, VA, NC
SC, GA, ME, FL, PA
Perry: (14)
WY, MT, ND, NM, OK, KA, MO
AR, LA, AL, TN, KY, IN, AK
Gingrich: (1)
MS
EC votes:
Cain - 225 (+21)
Romney - 205 (-21, +9 + 4)
Perry - 103
Gingrich - 6
Cain takes his first EC lead of the race. I still have a few Mitt leaners (WY, MT, AK), but even with all Mitt leaners, PA + VA is enough to put Cain ahead in ECs, but slightly behind in states.
OK, so let’s fast forward to a time in the near-future when candidates Huntsman, Santorum, Bachmann, and...who’s the fourth?...trying to remember...ummm...help me out here, Ron...
Let’s stipulate that Huntsamn, Bachmann, Santorum, and Perry do us all a favor and walk away with their lovely parting gifts.
What will the polls look like then?
Assuming the RCP polling average is reasonably accurate, we currently have:
HC 25%
MR 23%
NG 12%
RickP 10%
RonP 8%
MB 3%
RS 2%
JH 1%
That’s 84%, with presumably the other 16% undecided.
Unfortunately, I’m guessing most of the Perry folk don’t go for Herman after he initially blamed Perry for the bimbo eruption. Most will likely opt for Romney, IMO. 8% Romney, 2% Cain.
The Bachmann folk will accrue to Cain, being they are likely Tea Party types, as will the Santorum folk - staunch pro-lifers. 5% Cain.
Huntsman is down in the noise, probably go to Romney - 1%.
Few of any of these will opt for Paul, or Gingrich. I suspect they have both maxed out.
Then we have, appx:
Cain 32%
Romney 32%
Gingrich 12%
Paul 8%
Then the momentum comes into play. I think Cain takes IA, Mitt takes NH, but Cain wins SC and FL with surprising ease.
Gingrich folds, and most go to Cain.
Paul hangs on through the convention, and while many Paul supporters will disappear, many will hold their nose and vote for Cain.
I think those Cain bets on Intrade at 5 cents to the dollar are looking pretty good right now.
When Cain polls +1 in PA and VA, and they finally poll IN and TN.
Then he’ll be the frontrunner. Not bad for someone coming from 4.5 percent.
“I think those Cain bets on Intrade at 5 cents to the dollar are looking pretty good right now.”
The problem with a Perry collapse, is that there’s really only three states that might go to Mitt, that he doesn’t have already. Wyoming, Montana and Alaska. That’s it.
Everything else Perry owned is Cain. Losing PA caps Romney at 220 even after a Perry collapse. Romney must win IL, FL, PA to win the nomination. He can’t afford to lose any of the three. If he’s losing in all three, he’s done.
WOOT
Romney continues to be mired in that 20-25% range.
That’s about the same percentage of Republicans that are stupid. I wonder if there is a connection.
“Unfortunately, I’m guessing most of the Perry folk don’t go for Herman after he initially blamed Perry for the bimbo eruption. Most will likely opt for Romney, IMO. 8% Romney, 2% Cain.”
I’m not that sure that they will go to Romney. I think most of them are still part-timers when it comes to politics, so they won’t be too angered at having their man fingered. Also, I think most are conservatives, and they figure that Perry’s decade as governor means that he would make a good prez. Other than a handful of FReepers, and I’m not even sure about them, I think that the vast majority will go with a conservative...maybe not Cain, but they won’t try to install Romney on us, as they would have to live under him too.
Herman Cain needs big wins in the early primaries, including the Iowa caucuses, to stay ahead of Romney and thwart Mitt's media-anointed ascension to 'front-runner' status. I believe he'll get that and the recent attempt (by Obama operatives) to 'stop' Cain with fallacious 'sexual harassment' accusations from 15 years ago by people he didn't even remember, has only solidified his support. Conservatives will not be screwed into accepting another limp RINO like Romney as 'our' presidential nominee. Not this time. Too much is at stake for 'politics as usual'.
Connect with Cain events and volunteer opportunities in your area!
http://www.meetup.com/HermanCain/
http://teamcain.hermancain.com
In other HC News:
Herman Cain Announces HUGE Fundraising Numbers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2805602/posts
Cain Campaign Raking in Huge Money
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2805643/posts
Investigator: Herman Cain innocent of sexual advances
http://www.cbsatlanta.com/story/16002149/investigator-herman-cain-innocent-of-sexual-advances
Herman Cain Denies all Allegations, Hires Libel Lawyer, L. Lin Wood
http://www.catholic.org/politics/story.php?id=43607
Cain accuser drops news conference plan for now
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2805663/posts
Why the Establishment Wants to Destroy Herman Cain (Dr. Alveda King)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2805348/posts#comment
Sowell: The Real Scandal
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2805638/posts
Political Insider
Newt Gingrich super PAC takes a first slap at Herman Cain
http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2011/11/10/newt-gingrich-super-pac-takes-a-slap-at-herman-cain/
And yet, there was Ann Coulter on Hannity’s show today shilling for Romney saying Romney was the front runner, inevitable nominee etc...
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