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Turkey's House of Cards
Townhall.com ^ | October 5, 2011 | Caroline Glick

Posted on 10/05/2011 7:14:22 AM PDT by Kaslin

To the naked eye, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be moving from strength to strength. Erdogan was welcomed as a hero on his recent trip to Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. The Arabs embraced him as the new face of the war against Israel.

The Obama administration celebrates Turkey as a paragon of Islamic democracy. The Obama administration cannot thank Erdogan enough for his recent decision to permit NATO to station the US X-Band missile shield on its territory. The US is following Turkey's lead in contending with Syrian President Bashar Assad's massacre of his people.

And according to Erdogan, the Obama administration is looking into ways to leave its Predator and Reaper UAVs with the Turkish military when US forces depart Iraq in the coming months. Turkey requires the drones to facilitate its war against the Kurds in Iraq and eastern Anatolia. The Obama administration also just agreed to provide Turkey with three Super Cobra attack helicopters.

Despite its apparent abandonment of Iran's Syrian client Assad, Turkey's onslaught against the Kurds has enabled it to maintain its strategic alliance with Iran. Last month Erdogan announced that the Turkish and Iranian militaries are cooperating in intelligence sharing and gearing up to escalate their joint operations against the Kurds in Iraq.

Erdogan is probably the only world leader that conducted prolonged friendly meetings with both Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and US President Barak Obama at the UN last month.

Then there are the Balkans. After winning his third national election in June, Erdogan dispatched his Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Kosovo, Bosnia and Romania to conduct what the Turks referred to as "mosque diplomacy."

Erdogan's government has been lavishing aid on Bosnia for several years and is promoting itself as a neo-Ottoman guardian of the former Ottoman possessions.

EVEN ERDOGAN'S threats of war seem to be paying off. His attacks on Israel have won him respect and admiration throughout the Arab world. His threats against Cyprus's exploration of offshore natural gas fields caused Cypriot President Demetris Christofias to announce at the UN that Cyprus will share the revenues generated by its natural gas with Turkish occupied northern Cyprus.

Christofias said Cyprus would do so even in the absence of a unification agreement with its illegally occupied Turkish north. Moreover, due to Turkish pressure, Cyprus has agreed to intensify reunification talks with the Turkish puppet government in the northern half of the island. Those talks were set to begin in Nicosia last Tuesday.

Then there is the Turkish economy.

On the face of it, it seems that Turkey's assertive foreign policy is facilitated by its impressive economic growth.

According to Turkey's statistics agency, the Turkish economy grew by 8.8 percent in the second quarter of the year - far outperforming expectations. Last year the Turkish economy grew by 9 percent. With this impressive data, Erdogan is able to make a seemingly credible case to the likes of Egypt that it can expect to be enriched by a strategic partnership with Turkey.

For Israelis, these achievements are a cause for uneasiness. With Turkey building itself into a regional powerhouse largely on the back of its outspoken belligerence towards Israel, many observers argue Israel must do everything it can to mend fences with Turkey. Israel simply cannot afford to have Turkey angry at it, they claim.

If Turkey's position was as strong as the conventional wisdom claims, then maybe these commentators and politicians would have a point. But Turkey's actual situation is very different from its surface image.

Turkey's aggressive, peripatetic foreign policy is earning Ankara few friends.

Erdogan's threat to freeze Turkish-EU relations if the EU goes ahead as planned and transfers its rotating presidency to Cyprus next July has backfired.

European leaders wasted no time in angrily dismissing and rejecting Erdogan's threat. So too, Germany and France have been loudly critical of Turkey's belligerence towards Israel.

Then there is Cyprus. Turkey's ever escalating threats to attack Cyprus's natural gas project have angered both the EU and Russia. The EU is angry because as an EU member state, Cypriot gas will eventually benefit consumers throughout the EU, who are currently beholden to Russian suppliers and Turkish pipelines.

Russia itself has announced it will defend Cyprus against Turkish threats.

Russia is annoyed by Turkish courtship of the Balkan states. It sees no reason to allow Turkey to throw its weight around in Cyprus. Doing so successfully will only strengthen Ankara's appeal in the Balkans and among the Turkic minorities in Russia.

THIS BRINGS us to the Muslim world. Despite Erdogan's professions of friendship with Iran, it is far from clear that their alliance is as smooth as he presents it. The Iranians are concerned about Turkish ascendance in the Middle East and angry at Turkey for threatening Syria.

In truth if Assad is able to ride out the current storm and remain in power, he will owe his survival in no small measure to Turkey. Since the riots broke out in the spring, Turkey has restrained Washington from taking any concerted steps to overthrow the Syrian dictator. Had it not been for Erdogan's success in containing the US, it is possible the US and Europe might have acted swiftly to support the opposition.

But whether he stays in power or is overthrown, it is doubtful that Assad will feel any gratitude towards Erdogan. Rather, Assad will likely blame Erdogan for betraying him. And if Assad is toppled, the Kurds of Syria could easily forge alliances with their brethren in Turkey, Iraq and Iran, to Turkey's strategic detriment.

Since former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in February, Turkey has been making a concerted effort to build an alliance with the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Ankara has reportedly transferred millions of dollars in aid to the Islamic group, and of course continues to support Hamas as well as Hizbullah.

Yet for all of his efforts on the Muslim Brotherhood's behalf, the Brotherhood issued a sharp rebuke of Erdogan during his visit to Egypt. Brotherhood leader Essam el-Arian rejected Erdogan's call for Egypt to adopt the Turkish model of Islamic democracy as too secular for Egypt.

As for the Turkish economy, a closer analysis of its financial data indicates that Turkey's expansive growth is the result of a credit bubble that is about to burst. According to a Citicorp analyst quoted in The Wall Street Journal, domestic demand accounts for all of Turkey's economic growth.

This domestic demand in turn owes to essentially free loans the government showered on the public in the lead-up to the June elections. The loans are financed by government borrowing abroad.

Turkey's current accounts deficit stands at nearly 9 percent of GDP. Greece is engulfed in a debt crisis with a current accounts deficit of 10 percent.

Analysts project that Turkey's deficit will eclipse Greece's within the year. And whereas the EU may end up bailing Greece out of its debt crisis, Turkey has no one to bail it out of its own debt crisis. Consequently, Turkey's entire economic house of cards is likely to come crashing down very rapidly.

It is hard to understand why Erdogan is acting as he is given the poor hand he is holding. It is possible that he is crazy.

It is possible that he is so insulated from criticism that he is unaware of Turkey's economic realities or of the consequences of his aggressive behavior.

It is possible that he is hoping to combine a foreign policy crisis with Turkey's oncoming economic crisis in order to blame the latter on the former.

And it is possible that he believes that US backing gives him immunity to the consequences of his actions.

No matter what stands behind Turkey's actions, it is clear Ankara has overplayed its hand. Its threats against Israel and Cyprus are hollow. Its hopes to be a regional power are faltering.

The only thing Israel really needs to be concerned about is the US's continued insistence that Turkey is a model ally in the Islamic world. More than anything else, it is US support for Turkey that makes Erdogan a threat to the Jewish state and to the region.


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Israel
KEYWORDS: balkans; turkey

1 posted on 10/05/2011 7:14:27 AM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

The Turkish economy is doing fine.

Turkey’s $735 billion economy grew 8.8 percent in the second quarter, faster than India’s and the IMF projects 7.5 percent economic growth for Turkey this year.


2 posted on 10/05/2011 7:27:02 AM PDT by LowTaxesEqualsProsperity
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To: Kaslin

Do we still have an air base in Turkey ?


3 posted on 10/05/2011 7:27:29 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: Kaslin
It is possible that he is hoping to combine a foreign policy crisis with Turkey's oncoming economic crisis in order to blame the latter on the former.

This is why he has to move against Cyprus. Only by looting the Cypriot gas fields can he hope to pay off the debts in the Turkish economy. He doesn't have the firepower to go after Israel one on one. So he figured the Greeks, being on the verge of complete collapse, would be an easy mark. But the Russians have come in on the Greek side, and unlike NATO they are not toothless. Not because they have more or better weapons, but because unlike Western leaders Putin is willing to use what weapons he has.
4 posted on 10/05/2011 7:29:48 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: Kaslin

Gomer, Togarmah, Libya, Iran - Ezekiel 38 is aligning agaist Israel for the Latter Days / Latter Years 38:8 and 38:16.


5 posted on 10/05/2011 7:34:13 AM PDT by F15Eagle (1 John 5:4-5, 4:15, 5:13; John 3:17-18, 6:69, 11:25, 14:6, 20:31; Rom10:8-11; 1 Tim 2:5; Titus 3:4-5)
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To: F15Eagle

Against


6 posted on 10/05/2011 7:37:36 AM PDT by F15Eagle (1 John 5:4-5, 4:15, 5:13; John 3:17-18, 6:69, 11:25, 14:6, 20:31; Rom10:8-11; 1 Tim 2:5; Titus 3:4-5)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

Yes..but with considerable restrictions on what we can do. Turkey should have been kicked out of NATO when they refused to allow the 3ID to invade Iraq from the north. Instead, we continue to let them run all over us,k and now make overt threats against Israel. Heck..there is NO reason for NATO to exist anymore..militarily, it can’t do anything..so, blow it up, and the US should form a new Atlantic alliance with GB and Canada..


7 posted on 10/05/2011 7:48:36 AM PDT by ken5050 (Save the EARTH...it's the ONLY planet with CHOCOLATE!!!)
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To: GonzoGOP
Has is come to this? Russia defending Cyprus, and by proxy Greece AND Israel. While a putative NATO member, a moslem state, threatens them. The world has truly turned upside down.

We actually should have seen this coming. In the Balkan war Russia backed Serbia, a Christian nation, while the west backed a nacsent moslem state in Europe.

Putin is an odious character. Are we going to have to start rooting for him?

8 posted on 10/05/2011 7:52:00 AM PDT by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics)
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To: ken5050
I recall there was an US Air Force vet in my class at Iowa in the late 60s who had been stationed there.
He said it was good duty...
9 posted on 10/05/2011 7:56:41 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: ken5050
NATO lost its raison d'etre over the skies of Serbia and later on the plains of Afghanistan, where most of the "allies" refuse to fight even though the US was attacked. I'm still waiting to find out which NATO country was attacked by Serbia, or Libya for that matter.

The US should withdraw from Europe, just maintain a few bases in Germany for logistical operations elsewhere.

Canada, US, UK, Australia, New Zealand are natural allies. When push comes to shove, we all have the same beliefs. It really is an exclusive club of language, politics, law, and economics. Dozens of countries would love to join.

10 posted on 10/05/2011 7:58:29 AM PDT by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics)
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To: Kaslin
Turkey requires the drones to facilitate its war against the Kurds in Iraq and eastern Anatolia.

Oh that'll go over just grate in Iraq! Those who think Zero isn't trying to give Iraq back to Islamo-fascists just isn't watching.

Does anybody know for certain which flavor of Islam ol' Barack "professed"? Was it Sunnia or Shia (I am presuming the latter).

11 posted on 10/05/2011 8:02:13 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (GunWalker: Arming "a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as well funded")
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To: Kaslin; big'ol_freeper; Lil'freeper; TrueKnightGalahad; blackie; Larry Lucido; RockinRight; ...

The Turkish Military in the last century (1960, 1971, 1980 & 1997) has several times stepped in and pulled the rug from under past Ankara regimes that went too far, AND it is time for them to do it again!


12 posted on 10/05/2011 8:08:16 AM PDT by Bender2 ("I've got a twisted sense of humor, and everything amuses me." RAH Beyond this Horizon)
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To: Former Proud Canadian
Putin is an odious character. Are we going to have to start rooting for him?

So was Vlad Tepes, but he kept the Turks out of the Balkans. Sometimes a driven, but ruthless individual can do more than a good man without will or direction. Especially in the face of an equally ruthless foe.
13 posted on 10/05/2011 8:12:27 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: GonzoGOP
This is why he has to move against Cyprus. Only by looting the Cypriot gas fields can he hope to pay off the debts in the Turkish economy.

This is similar to why Hitler invaded France. He HAD to, because conquering and looting France and the rest of Europe was the only way to keep the National Socialist German economy from collapsing.

We are at a dangerous stage where Turkey, Pakistan, and others will only be able to keep their people happy by finding some external entity to loot.

14 posted on 10/05/2011 8:25:10 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (When you've only heard lies your entire life, the truth sounds insane.)
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To: Bender2

Didn’t their most recent plot get disrupted and their whole top brass sacked?

I think the days of the army being the guardian of secularism are waning.


15 posted on 10/05/2011 8:29:27 AM PDT by Eyes Unclouded ("The word bipartisan means some larger-than-usual deception is being carried out." -George Carlin)
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To: Bender2

The whole “Operation Sledgehammer” scandal really messed things up when the AKP declared that the army was trying to launch a coup and started arresting people.

I haven’t followed it very closely, but it seemed to be a good way to quiet military opposition while AKP backers work their way up the ranks.


16 posted on 10/05/2011 8:30:07 AM PDT by Shadow44
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To: Carry_Okie
Does anybody know for certain which flavor of Islam ol' Barack "professed"? Was it Sunnia or Shia (I am presuming the latter).

Islam in both Kenya and Indonesia is predominantly Sunni, so I guess the former.

17 posted on 10/05/2011 8:31:40 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (When you've only heard lies your entire life, the truth sounds insane.)
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To: Kaslin
Then there are the Balkans. After winning his third national election in June, Erdogan dispatched his Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to Kosovo, Bosnia and Romania to conduct what the Turks referred to as "mosque diplomacy."

Erdogan's government has been lavishing aid on Bosnia for several years and is promoting itself as a neo-Ottoman guardian of the former Ottoman possessions

And guess who spearheaded support for islamic domination in Europe? Mecca called and they want their dhimmi Madeline Albright back.

18 posted on 10/05/2011 8:32:59 AM PDT by montyspython (This thread needs more cowbell)
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To: PapaBear3625
Islam in both Kenya and Indonesia is predominantly Sunni, so I guess the former.

LOL, I meant to imply Sunni but got crossed up in the text box. Thanks.

The reason I was asking is that, if he is Sunni, why is he working so hard on behalf of Iran? Is is simply, 'anything that harms Amerikkka,' or something else? On several levels, the guy is pretty inscrutable, whether it is stupidity, opportunism, criminal greed, revenge, or something larger, it is simply hard to tell. I suspect a vicious brew.

19 posted on 10/05/2011 8:40:10 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (GunWalker: Arming "a civilian national security force that's just as powerful, just as well funded")
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To: F15Eagle

You forgot one, Cush also known as Sudan.


20 posted on 10/05/2011 2:08:40 PM PDT by fatez ("If you're going through Hell, keep going." Winston Churchill)
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To: F15Eagle

You forgot one, Cush also known as Sudan.


21 posted on 10/05/2011 2:08:45 PM PDT by fatez ("If you're going through Hell, keep going." Winston Churchill)
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To: Kaslin

Regarding Turkey’s domestic consumption bubble, and it’s impending bursting,
Spengler blog had a really good piece about this a few months ago, still pertinent:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH10Ak01.html
Middle East
Aug 10, 2011

Instant obsolescence of the Turkish model
By Spengler


22 posted on 10/05/2011 2:38:20 PM PDT by JerseyHighlander
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To: fatez

I usually don’t mention it in haste but yeah appears so.


23 posted on 10/05/2011 2:50:04 PM PDT by F15Eagle (1 John 5:4-5, 4:15, 5:13; John 3:17-18, 6:69, 11:25, 14:6, 20:31; Rom10:8-11; 1 Tim 2:5; Titus 3:4-5)
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To: ken5050
Good evening guy.

Turkey should have been kicked out of NATO when they refused to allow the 3ID to invade Iraq from the north.

The only reason I'm not typing a Turkish epitaph is that after 30 years, I forgot how to do the proper "c" in the sentence.

5.56mm

24 posted on 10/05/2011 2:54:34 PM PDT by M Kehoe
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To: F15Eagle; Kaslin

So if this is the start of the alignment in Ez 38, how do these countries get to Israel when they have to go through Lebanon and / or Syria which are not mentioned in the chapter? Put (Libya) and Cush (Sudan) would have to go through Egypt which is also not mentioned. My own opinion is that Syria (Is 17) and Egypt (Ez 29) will be so weak and possibly aligned with these countries without necessarily contributing. Or maybe God did not include all of the aliance members coming against the Holy Land.


25 posted on 10/05/2011 3:40:31 PM PDT by fatez ("If you're going through Hell, keep going." Winston Churchill)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks Kaslin.
26 posted on 10/05/2011 3:53:24 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (It's never a bad time to FReep this link -- https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: fatez
aliance = alliance
27 posted on 10/05/2011 3:54:21 PM PDT by fatez ("If you're going through Hell, keep going." Winston Churchill)
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To: fatez

Israel is dwelling at peace when the attack comes. Some have suggested that this attack only comes after the antichrist deceives Israel with false peace. Here only a few nations are listed with others in protest but by the time Armageddon comes all nations are fighting against Israel.


28 posted on 10/05/2011 4:04:23 PM PDT by F15Eagle (1 John 5:4-5, 4:15, 5:13; John 3:17-18, 6:69, 11:25, 14:6, 20:31; Rom10:8-11; 1 Tim 2:5; Titus 3:4-5)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

..................

29 posted on 10/05/2011 4:34:21 PM PDT by SJackson (The irony is, the reason I was in this office is because I told a story to the American people, BHO)
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To: LowTaxesEqualsProsperity

Obviously you didn’t read to the end of the article. Turkey’s 8% growth is almost all internal, and based on a credit bubble fueled by interest free loans. The growth is also all internal demand - e.g there is little foreign investment in Turkey. They have a current account deficit of 9% of GDP, and will eclipse Greece’s CAD of 10% later this year. Not mentioned in the article, 65% of its economy is service oriented (where much of the domestic demand is driving growth), under 25% is industrial. That is a bubble sort of like our housing bubble which popped in 2008.

They have a budget deficit of almost 20%. So, when it comes time to bring its accounts current, who will bail them out? China? Saudi Arabia? Not Russia, not USA, not EU. Greece will be bailed out by the EU and the US bails itself out in several different ways (including attracting foreign investment) but Turkey was not even given a path to EU membership (and they are quite angry about that, indeed that was one of the instigators for their turn away from secularism).

The article goes on to imply that they are punching above their weight by giving aid to groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and the others, and that despite its outer projections of a growing country it is really a “house of cards” waiting to come down.


30 posted on 10/05/2011 6:32:55 PM PDT by monkeyshine
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To: Bender2

It won’t happen this time Bendy. The government has purged the Army of all the secularists.


31 posted on 10/06/2011 3:37:38 AM PDT by nuke rocketeer (File CONGRESS.SYS corrupted: Re-boot Washington D.C (Y/N)?)
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