Palin Waiting Game Could Run Into October [Scott Conroy, Real Clear Politics]

www.realclearpolitics.com ^ | September 23, 2012 | Scott Conroy

[RonDog]

Palin Waiting Game Could Run Into October
by Scott Conroy - September 23, 2011

Decision day for Sarah Palin is coming next week. That is, of course, unless it isn’t.

Asked in July when she would decide whether to run for president, the former Alaska governor told Fox News’ Sean Hannity, “August and September. You do have to start laying out a plan if you are to be one to throw your hat in the ring, so that's basically the time frame.”

During an early August appearance at the Iowa state fair, Palin echoed that language, suggesting again that late-summer was “basically” her deadline to decide.

“That is still a possibility for a timetable,” Palin replied when asked about the matter. “Yes, definitely.”

For anyone who may have been confused about whether late-September was “definitely” the timetable or merely “definitely a possibility” for a timetable, Palin did little to clarify the matter during another Fox News interview this week. Hannity this time asked her whether November was the month by which she would need to make a decision

[NavyCanDo]

She did tell Hannity two nights ago when asked again if she will run, that it would be “unconventional”. She is doing the right thing. Let Perry fall with the others shooting the arrows, then when it looks like it will be a Romney vs. Obama election, then make her announcement, bringing excitement back to the election, and her shooting to the top the same way Perry first did. From then on it will be Palin vs. Perry all the way to the Primary.

[kevkrom]

Staying out of the fray didn’t help Fred Thompson much.

I know a lot of folks like to use Thompson as an analogue to Palin, but it's not really the same thing. Thompson really did jump in late -- he hadn't done any ground work, but thought that he could jump into a field where there was little satisfaction among voters as the white knight.

He got checked by the media pushing populist Huckabee in Iowa (Iowa, as a caucus state, is easier to influence with a late, highly-publicized entry), but the end really came when he got crushed by McCain's organization in South Carolina.

Palin's case is different. Presuming she's running, she's been planning for this since July of last year, if not November of 2008. She started a PAC and got involved in a variety of races, but especially so in key early primary states (Iowa, South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Florida). While she may not have an official organization, she has an unofficial one that is probably at least as strong as any of the declared candidates except Romney and maybe Perry.

She's also continued to be involved in the "national discussion", by driving the debate down certain roads. Everything from "death panels" to "crony capitalism" -- she has had the knack of boiling down important issues in a manner that resonates with people and influences the way they talk about the subject.

[Fawn]

If Sarah gets in, we can say HELLO to 4 more years of Obama.

[ASA Vet]

Sarah Louise Palin

Born February 11, 1964 in Sandpoint, ID (Meets the Jus Soli Requirement)

Parents were
Charles R Heath, born in ID
Sarah Sheeran, born in WI

Both parents were US Citizens at the time of her birth (Meets the Jus Sanguinis Requirement)

Sarah Palin is a NATURAL BORN CITIZEN

Barry Soetoro aka Barack Hussein Obama ISN'T!

[exit82]

Fine! After last night’s clown show, I see NO reason for her to declare yet.

Totally agree with you, VR.

She is playing this just right.

Cain and Newt were strong--the rest of the posers up there need to go home.

I don;t like Newt as President but as a Cabinet member. Cain I could see as Palin's running mate. Together they would blow the liberal midset to hell as a woman and a real black man run together.

Also, I want the Grifter and his Wookie out of MY House. They are corrupt America-hating Muslims, and I hope they are forever consigned to a footnote in American history, filed under "WTF?".

[Fawn]

Maybe I’m crazy, but I’m worried that a Palin candidacy will give us Romney as the nominee. Palin getting in now will split the conservative vote.
Not after last night.

What do you mean? What did you think of the debate last night??

[USS Alaska]

Maybe I’m crazy,

Get help.

[NavyCanDo]

“Maybe I’m crazy, but I’m worried that a Palin candidacy will give us Romney as the nominee.”

From what we are seeing from Perry, we already have a Romney nominee. Not knowing Perry from Adam - I gave him 3 debates now to introduce himself to me, and show me what he’s got. Conclusion - He is a total Dud. Not trying to be mean, but he comes across as a baffoon.

Palin jumping in will not split the conservative vote. The conservatives in the party will rally their flags around her. Moderates, will be the ones to split their vote between Romney and Palin.

[Caipirabob]

Right now there's a HUGE (I'm series) vacuum with Perry completely imploding on immigration and general lackluster performance last night. She may very well wait it out, however: Mitt Romney, although a media favorite, is likely to get much more attention without another prominent figure for the media to focus on and take down. more attention on Romney(care) is a bad thing for him and could do damage by default.

From this perspective, Sarah's "game" is brilliant.

[DJ MacWoW]

I meant exactly what I said.

[factmart]

Bob & Mark host the morning drive slot at KWHL-FM in Anchorage. Gov. Palin frequently calls them to chat on the air, as she’s been doing for years. During a appearance on their show, she promised them that if she does decide to run for president, she will make the announcement on their program.

COMING SOON!

[Darkwolf377]

I’ve made the points you make many times. Palin’s name-recognition is very high, for example.

I merely point out the fact that getting in late and staying above the fray doesn’t always work—no more than that, but no less, either. I’ve also said that many of the things we think are important about timing tend to be seen as very important, but after one is IN the race, they become moot.

[winoneforthegipper]

Four years of Perry or Romney would not be much different.

[exit82]

Palin jumping in will not split the conservative vote. The conservatives in the party will rally their flags around her. Moderates, will be the ones to split their vote between Romney and Palin.

Very astute observation--thanks.

[Caipirabob]

If Sarah gets in, we can say HELLO to 4 more years of Obama.

You really believe romney would be any better? Heck, I left the GOP because of mccain.

If romney's the nominee, accept the fact that we are going to have to rebuild this nation from ashes. Obama will destroy him in the election and our nation will simply collapse.

And NO, I will not be "maccain'ed" again.

[RonDog]

It’s an absolute SLAM DUNK that she’ll be announcing on Constitution Day.

LOLOL!

That was what she WANTED you to think!

See also, from en.wikipedia.org:

"Operation Fortitude" was the codename for the deception operations used by the Allied forces during World War II in connection with the Normandy landings (Operation Overlord)...

An inflatable dummy tank, modeled after the M4 Sherman.

...designed to induce the Germans to believe that the main invasion of France would occur in the Pas de Calais rather than Normandy.

Fortitude was one of the most successful deception operations of the war and arguably the most important...

...until now. ;)

And, for those of you keeping track at home...

...please add GENERAL DWIGHT DAVID EISENHOWER to the list of people to whom Governor Palin has now been compared. :o)

[TomGuy]

I don’t know if she’s outsmarting herself. Staying out of the fray didn’t help Fred Thompson much.

Yeah. Being too 'unconventional' might just keep her from a major role [nominee] at The Convention.

Two problems with her delaying, assuming the existing front runners don't implode soon:

1. Most of the money might already be committed to others, when/if/should she finally decide to get in.

2. Many of the major endorsements may already be committed to others, when/if/should she finally decide to get in.

There have already been 4 or 5 major debates. For good or ill, they do help and hurt the candidates. They do hurt by possibly allowing candidates to implode and be weeded out [Pawlenty]. They also give candidates good on-stage experience at answering questions and facing the competition.

[kevkrom]

If Sarah gets in, we can say HELLO to 4 more years of Obama.

Anyone capable of winning the GOP primary will beat Obama, barring a total implosion in the general election. The possible exception is Romney, because his negatives offset many of Obama's negatives (RomneyCare/Obamacare, bailouts, illegals), but frankly, if he can manage to get the GOP nomination despite that, he might actually still be able to beat Obama.

For what it's worth, and that ain't much.

We are standing on the edge of a cliff as a country, and a liberal establishment guy like Romney ain't going to fix anything that really needs fixing. It matters little if the GOP wins the election if they aren't going to do anything useful in power -- to that end we need someone who is capable, experienced, and committed in the field of rooting out corruption and doing what it takes to get moving in the right direction.

And that's a locus of one: Sarah Palin.

Unless someone else joins the fray who I am not anticipating, I don't think it matters if we "win" with anyone else -- the collapse is coming, perhaps a little slower, but then, the GOP will get the blame for it, too. I don't know if a President Palin will be able to stem that tide, but I think she's the only one who has a realistic chance to do so.

[MestaMachine]

I’ve noticed a couple of things that have me on alert. Sheya from C4P has moved over into something else, though she will still be maintaining Palin TV. There have been a couple of other sideways moves by some of the main players and something that happened last night that I don’t want to get into right now. But things ARE shifting. So we shall see what we shall see.

[alancarp]

Ha! All of that sounds about right to me.