Posted on 08/08/2011 3:32:22 PM PDT by Aria
Harry Truman, frustrated by economists who couched their opinions by saying "On the one hand...but on the other hand," wanted a one-handed economist. I've got one. James Fitzgibbon, director of the Highlander Fund, has been spot on in predicting the course of economic events for the past three years. As each estimate of GDP growth came in, I would e mail him and he would explain that the growth rate was materially overstated and then explain that it would soon be adjusted downward. And it was. He has been accurate in predicting a long, long term recession with only a few "false dawns" for recovery.
Now comes a truly terrifying email from James. He writes, "This is the start of the real deal." The things I forecast six months ago are now obvious to some but still not all." He writes that "We have begun the second phase of the meltdown." He predicts that "Stocks, real estate will collapse and keep falling into 2013. The lows of 2009 will be easily taken out on the downside."
From the start, Fitzgibbon has been impressing on me that we are not facing the normal business cycle of boom and bust, but that we are in the midst of a debt repudiation cycle which comes every fifty or sixty years as debt piles up so high that borrowers stop borrowing and lenders stop lending. With a global GDP of $60 trillion, we now have global corporate, personal and government debt equal to $160 billion (this does not include liability for pensions or social security down the road, but only current debt).
So now he says that the debt deal for deficit reduction recently passed by Congress "Is neither the cause nor a solution to these issues. The indebtedness is too great and has been dragging us down for too long to make any difference at all." He notes that our debt/GDP ratio is now 135% and that "You have to add in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the US Government public sector debt to get the correct debt balance of $20 trillion vs. a GDP of $14.8 trillion."
He says "The real horror will be later in the year when the US Treasury Bond goes into a freefall. Then a depression is possible. Soaring interest rates. Collapsing asset values. Contracting economic activity. Surging unemployment. And business closures."
A Republican, he lamely adds "If I have any good news for you it is that the worst of this comes in 2012 into 2013 and we should be rid of Obama and his minions."
Thanks a lot.
It will be ok. Obama talked Geitner into staying to fix all of this...sarc/
“A Republican, he lamely adds “If I have any good news for you it is that the worst of this comes in 2012 into 2013 and we should be rid of Obama and his minions.”
Like it did FDR?
A hard sale...but one I believe he will try and make by hook or by crook. We simply MUST defeat him and the dems. They are destroying the Republic with a will.
Uh, the comparable scenario in GD 1 was "If I have any good news for you it is that the worst of this comes in 1932 into 1933 and we should be rid of Hoover and his minions."
As it happens, the worst of it was in early 1933, and we were rid of Hoover...though it turns out that his replacement set up the historical replay 80 years later.
When the Treasury Bond Market tanks it’s katy bar the door. It hasn’t started yet in earnest but cracks are beginning to appear in the safe haven status of the T bond market. Debt service loads will then begin to eat us alive.
It would be difficult to find anyone more clueless about all this than the current WH resident. I suppose ignorance is bliss...at least for a while.
“The real horror will be later in the year when the US Treasury Bond goes into a freefall”
I don’t know. We’ve got an awful big military... Tbills are pretty safe for a few years.
I agree with him, we ain’t seen nuttin yet.
The dollar will continue its slide, gold will soar as peeps look for something of value in which to put their money.
The credit rating firms, moody’s, S&P, and Fitch will continue to downgrade us to “junk” status.
From there, things get worse if you can believe that.
The dollar has been OK because the Euro is in worst shape than the USD. But I had mu kids put their 401k’s into Gold & Silver funds that have actual physical metal, back when Gold was $900, Silver like $13 they aren’t moving it anytime soon.
I think a sub 10,000 Dow by the end of the week and a Dow less than 7,000 is not out of the question by Christmas.
I’m on the sidelines until after the Inauguration in 2013.
There is no relief in sight from this oppressive government until then.
Hope and pray for very very conservative election outcomes and a change in House and Senate Leadership with a President that will Support and Defend the Constitution.
What equity I have in my home is just going to vanish if he is right. I had been thinking about selling it and renting for a while - just to make sure I got my cash out - probably too late for that now. Might give it a shot anyway.
Fri I sat at closing with the finger on the trigger for FAZ @ $60.24....was going to double my position...
Couldn't pull the trigger!!!...it closed at $79.73 today..a mistake in hindsight, but I'm still happy....I have my gold and silver
What funds have physical gold and silver?
I firmly believe are in a long-term “debt repudiation cycle” - consumers and the Gov’t (interestingly, not most businesses) took on a lot of debt to finance consumption and property.
Unwinding it will take years or even decades. This is especially true since few politicians wish to recognize the fact, and will continue to paper it over with more debt, keynesian “stimulus” or baby-step solutions. Although their debt was corporate and Gov’t, one need only look at Japan from 1990 to present to see this.
Something is wrong with this statement. $160B in debt with a $60T GDP is but a debt to GDP ration of less than 1%. I wish this were the situation.
Morris screwed up something here.
I thought I heard today that there was a major bond rally going on.
They don’t have Gold and Silver. They have a worthless account number that somehow relates to Gold and Silver fund shares. But if there is a collapse, they will not see an ounce of gold.
Methinks that $160B maybe should be $160T. Even the spellchecker can’t gets it brain around that much debt.
Yes, investors are flocking to Treasuries right now out of traditional thinking.
It won’t probably be for a few months, but eventually reality will set in that all governments, China included, are insolvent and, no matter how high they raise tax rates, they can not collect enough revenue to reduce their debt.
They are all simply rolling over debt into more debt.
Radical reduction of size of a few of the larger nations governments - and America is a required part of this - and their regulation is the only way to avoid catastrophe, but allowing a revival of small, local businesses.
Smart move on you and your kids part.
This will not change until the Government get out of the way of those that produce and let them produce!
Even if Obummer saw the light right now, this instant, tonight, it would take 20 years for us to turn this around and with the current congress, I just don’t see this happening.
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