Are you really? I doubt the dead cat bounce Tuesday, some but it will peter out like the Nikkei did toward the end of the market. You aren’t really.
Fed tries to prop the old house up, it resists and declines to the Mid-9000 range. It simmers there until Congress returns and quivers on hopes that they might do something besides wait on the Super Committee.
They do noting by the end of September, the fall resumes to 8,000’s. By that time recession fears become clear realities.
People recognize value and high PE ratios but are dubious of the cuts coming as a result of the Super Committee failing to resolve anything and so they don’t drive prices in the market up.
1. We are in hock up to our eyeballs. We did not heed the warnings of at last $4T in reductions
2. Taxes can’t be raised in any meaningful way or amount to address the deficit and the debt. Spending has to be cut and it has to be in entitlements.
3. Cuts will probably result in riots
4. Companies will not release cash, there is no reason to invest in a down economy, growth in capacity is not needed.
5. Companies will not invest into the oblabla economy either so as not to support him and encourage more of the same and because of growing, unreasonable, expensive and capricious regulation.
6. Don’t forget the London riots now going on. They truly appear to be major.
7. Losses around the world will return to the U.S.
I don’t see a thing good until after the elections and then only if oblabla loses, we get a conservative house and senate and a person of vision, energy and patriotism returns to the whitey house. It will take AT LEAST two years after inauguration day to make any real progress the economy will have deteriorated so much. Our next problem for a return to growth will be capable labor.
If not, game over. A conservative congress on both sides of the aisle will only continue to squabble with oblabla and the mandated over regulation will continue further depressing U.S. industry.
Not a very happy view.
I moved half of my retirement package into a safer profile last month. How much safer remains to be seen. I'm thinking the hatches had better be battened down for awhile yet.
You could see a lot of agencies being downsized and merged. A good number of agencies will be phased out altogether. And finally, we may see the biggest overhaul of income taxes since the passage of the 16th Amendment in order to reduce compliance costs and to spur savings and investment in the USA--possibly the first step towards even phasing out the income tax itself in favor of radical ideas like a national consumption tax (FairTax, H.R. 25/S. 13).