Posted on 07/27/2011 12:24:47 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
NEW YORK , N.Y. - July 26, 2011 - By this time next summer the Republican candidate who will challenge President Obama will be known but at this point the list of candidates and potential candidates for the nomination is still far from finalized. With the "will-he-or-she-run-questions" still being asked and answered, some of the names with the highest familiarity among the general public are still not even declared candidates.
Obviously because of her run for Vice President with John McCain, almost nine in ten Americans (86%) are familiar with Sarah Palin and 75% of U.S. adults are familiar with Rudy Giuliani, both of whom are still undeclared, but possible candidates for the nomination. Majorities of Americans are familiar with declared candidates Newt Gingrich (72%), Mitt Romney (67%), and Ron Paul (52%) while half are familiar with Michele Bachmann (50%). All other potential candidates are at 30% or under in terms of familiarity.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,183 adults surveyed online between July 11 and 18, 2011 by Harris Interactive.
With this in mind, it's not surprising then that among Republicans over one-quarter (28%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for if they were voting in the Republican primary. Rudy Giuliani (14%) and Mitt Romney (14%) rise to the top among Republicans followed by Sarah Palin (12%). All the other candidates presented are under 10% including Rick Perry (8%), Michele Bachmann (6%), and Ron Paul (5%). Among Independents there is a three way tie for "first place" between Rudy Giuliani (10%), Mitt Romney (10%) and Ron Paul (10%). But over two in five Independents (42%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary election.
Against President Obama
Looking ahead to November, it seems there are three possible candidates who could give President Obama a difficult time. President Obama would lose his re-election if Rudy Giuliani (53% to 47%) or Mitt Romney (51% to 49%) was the Republican nominee. Each candidate would receive 50% of the vote if the President was running against Ron Paul. Right now, President Obama would win re-election against the 10 other candidates presented.
Right now the Republican party needs to figure out who they are and begin the process of coalescing around one candidate. In the study of politics, there is always a debate regarding electability and this election may show that clearly. Should Republicans nominate a candidate who stands for certain values or policies important to a sub-section of the party, even though that candidate may not be electable in the general election? This is a question the Republican party needs to answer if they want to win next November.
TABLE 1A
REPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY
"How familiar are you with each of the following people?"
Base: All adults
|
Familiar (NET) |
Very familiar |
Somewhat familiar |
Not familiar (NET) |
Not very familiar |
Not at all familiar |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Sarah Palin |
86 |
48 |
38 |
14 |
8 |
5 |
Rudy Giuliani |
75 |
37 |
39 |
25 |
11 |
14 |
Newt Gingrich |
72 |
35 |
37 |
28 |
14 |
13 |
Mitt Romney |
67 |
29 |
38 |
33 |
16 |
16 |
Ron Paul |
52 |
19 |
33 |
48 |
21 |
27 |
Michele Bachmann |
50 |
19 |
31 |
50 |
18 |
32 |
Rick Perry |
30 |
13 |
17 |
70 |
20 |
50 |
Tim Pawlenty |
28 |
9 |
19 |
72 |
22 |
50 |
Rick Santorum |
28 |
10 |
18 |
72 |
20 |
52 |
Herman Cain |
22 |
7 |
15 |
78 |
18 |
60 |
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
15 |
4 |
11 |
85 |
22 |
63 |
Gary Johnson |
8 |
3 |
5 |
92 |
18 |
74 |
Thaddeus McCotter |
8 |
3 |
5 |
92 |
15 |
77 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 1B
REPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY
"How familiar are you with each of the following people?"
Summary of those saying "Very familiar" or "Somewhat familiar"
Base: All adults
|
Total |
Party ID |
Philosophy |
||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Sarah Palin |
86 |
88 |
89 |
89 |
85 |
86 |
91 |
Rudy Giuliani |
75 |
77 |
77 |
78 |
74 |
74 |
80 |
Newt Gingrich |
72 |
76 |
74 |
76 |
76 |
69 |
74 |
Mitt Romney |
67 |
74 |
65 |
73 |
69 |
65 |
70 |
Ron Paul |
52 |
55 |
50 |
60 |
54 |
48 |
59 |
Michele Bachmann |
50 |
50 |
50 |
55 |
53 |
43 |
59 |
Rick Perry |
30 |
38 |
26 |
30 |
37 |
26 |
29 |
Tim Pawlenty |
28 |
33 |
25 |
33 |
32 |
25 |
33 |
Rick Santorum |
28 |
31 |
27 |
32 |
33 |
23 |
32 |
Herman Cain |
22 |
29 |
17 |
25 |
32 |
16 |
21 |
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
15 |
15 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
11 |
23 |
Gary Johnson |
8 |
11 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
7 |
8 |
Thaddeus McCotter |
8 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 2
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION
"If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?"
Base: All adults
|
Total March 2011 |
Total May 2011 |
Total July 2011 |
Party ID |
Philosophy |
||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
||||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
8 |
8 |
11 |
14 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
Mitt Romney |
10 |
10 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
Sarah Palin |
7 |
5 |
8 |
12 |
7 |
5 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
Ron Paul |
NA |
6 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
Rick Perry |
NA |
NA |
5 |
8 |
1 |
6 |
10 |
2 |
2 |
Michele Bachmann |
2 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
6 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
NA |
1 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
9 |
Herman Cain |
NA |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
Tim Pawlenty |
2 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
* |
1 |
3 |
1 |
* |
Newt Gingrich |
5 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
* |
1 |
3 |
* |
1 |
Rick Santorum |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
Thaddeus McCotter |
NA |
NA |
* |
* |
* |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
Gary Johnson |
NA |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
* |
Not at all sure |
45 |
42 |
44 |
28 |
53 |
42 |
34 |
51 |
44 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than .05%; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll.
TABLE 3A
2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA
"Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?"
Base: All adults
|
Would vote for |
|
President Obama |
The Republican nominee |
|
% |
% |
|
Thaddeus McCotter |
57 |
43 |
Gary Johnson |
56 |
44 |
Herman Cain |
56 |
44 |
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
55 |
45 |
Rick Santorum |
55 |
45 |
Rick Perry |
54 |
46 |
Michele Bachmann |
54 |
46 |
Tim Pawlenty |
54 |
46 |
Newt Gingrich |
54 |
46 |
Sarah Palin |
54 |
46 |
Ron Paul |
50 |
50 |
Mitt Romney |
49 |
51 |
Rudy Giuliani |
47 |
53 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 3B
2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA
"Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?"
Summary of those who would vote for the Republican nominee
Base: All adults
|
Total March 2011 |
Total May 2011 |
Total July 2011 |
Party ID |
Philosophy |
Tea Party Support |
||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|||||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
51 |
51 |
53 |
89 |
24 |
56 |
84 |
48 |
19 |
87 |
Mitt Romney |
49 |
49 |
51 |
87 |
21 |
55 |
84 |
45 |
19 |
87 |
Ron Paul |
NA |
45 |
50 |
83 |
18 |
57 |
82 |
42 |
19 |
85 |
Sarah Palin |
42 |
42 |
46 |
79 |
20 |
48 |
78 |
40 |
13 |
83 |
Newt Gingrich |
44 |
44 |
46 |
82 |
15 |
49 |
81 |
37 |
15 |
82 |
Tim Pawlenty |
44 |
42 |
46 |
83 |
15 |
49 |
80 |
38 |
13 |
83 |
Michele Bachmann |
41 |
42 |
46 |
81 |
18 |
49 |
79 |
39 |
13 |
83 |
Rick Perry |
NA |
NA |
46 |
82 |
17 |
48 |
80 |
38 |
14 |
84 |
Rick Santorum |
43 |
43 |
45 |
81 |
15 |
48 |
79 |
37 |
14 |
83 |
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
NA |
41 |
45 |
81 |
16 |
46 |
77 |
37 |
14 |
81 |
Herman Cain |
NA |
41 |
44 |
79 |
15 |
46 |
77 |
37 |
12 |
81 |
Gary Johnson |
NA |
43 |
44 |
80 |
15 |
45 |
78 |
36 |
12 |
80 |
Thaddeus McCotter |
NA |
NA |
43 |
79 |
15 |
44 |
77 |
36 |
12 |
80 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll.
Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between July 11 to 18, 2011 among 2,183 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
What’s the difference between Rudy and Zero? Answer: One is black and the other is white.
You mean the Rudy Guliani who is hosting “Mob WeeK” on AMC movie?
Really?
You mean the Romney that is a socialist?
How about no.
If it is Romney or Rudy against Obama in 2012, we ALL lose, no matter who wins.
How is it that Hussein has an approval rating in the low 40’s and yet he gets above 50% of the vote against almost all candidates?
RE: Whats the difference between Rudy and Zero? Answer: One is black and the other is white.
I am not a fan of all of Rudy’s policies by any means, but if the choice eventually boils down between these two liberals, Rudy wins hands down.
* Rudy has executive experience and accomplishments, Zero has none and has proven that time and again.
* Rudy controlled NYC spending and CUT TAXES. Zero is a huge spender and wants to increase taxes.
* Rudy is a friend of Israel, Zero is a pretender.
Those are some of the differences that I see. Not that they are enough for me to root for Rudy.
Correction...Half-white
Gee, if the DEMS/LIBS/SOCIALISTS want us to run Romney or Giuliani, they must really be scared of Palin or West or Bachmann.
I didn’t realize Mittens and Julie-Annie were running against Barry in the Democrat primary! Cool!
OOPS. Meant to put CAIN in there as well.
I don’t know why the DEMS stick with Obama.
Of course, I tried to think of someone in their party that we do NOT want to run against, and there really aren’t any standouts. So... I guess it doesn’t matter to them. He’s just an empty suit who does nothing but make spiels to the public smoothing over (lying about) what his administration has been doing. They have plenty of empty suits, and one is the same as the other.
Rudy spent the first part of his career prosecuting mobsters.
AMERICA would lose if either Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani was the nominee.
No more RINOs!
The country would lose if either were the nominee.
I won’t vote for either of those GOP possibilities. I promise.
No more establishment candidates for the GOP. We need a Reagan II !
Guiliani?! NO WAY NO HOW
this is just a guiliani trial balloon.
lead balloon.
NO NO primary NO.
Guiliani is just another RINO.
The tea party should primary him out.
This just not seem credible.
“... were the nominee...”
“...WERE the nominee...”
It’s a conditional!
Doesn’t anyone study English anymore?
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