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Romney and Perry : Dual Front-Runners?(Perry tops Romney at Intrade)
New York Times ^ | July 26, 2011 | Nate Silver

Posted on 07/26/2011 9:53:53 PM PDT by Clairity

At the betting market Intrade, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has overtaken Mitt Romney and is now considered the most likely person to win the Republican presidential contest. Mr. Perry is given a 35 percent chance of claiming the nomination as compared to Mr. Romney at 29 percent; Michelle Bachmann is a distant third place and assigned a 9 percent chance of winning.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; intrade; perry; perrycare; rinoperry; rinoromney; romney; romneycare
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Looks like the author is really having trouble reporting this, his anti-Perry attitude is obvious from the article.

Of course there is still a long road through the primaries, but so far so good.

1 posted on 07/26/2011 9:54:01 PM PDT by Clairity
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To: Clairity

I put little stock in Intrade predictions.


2 posted on 07/26/2011 10:03:34 PM PDT by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: Clairity

I have an anti-Romney attitude. Is there polling for "Romney vs Anonymous Republican"? I'm not convinced beating Romney is a huge accomplishment for Perry :-)


3 posted on 07/26/2011 10:05:01 PM PDT by so_real ( "The Congress of the United States recommends and approves the Holy Bible for use in all schools.")
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To: Clairity

Thanks for the post. We were ready for some decent news after the last 24 hours.

Intrade is a fun poll and it’s great to see the winner look like a winner in that poll, even if it is early. Rick brings positive energy (I actually hate that term) already to the race and it will be good to hear and see his announcement. Romney has had the run of the polls and the cash under the radar entirely long enough. If Rick runs well he can leap frog Romney and go all the way.


4 posted on 07/26/2011 10:05:01 PM PDT by RitaOK (We hang together or will hang separately. 2012, or bust)
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To: Clairity

Thanks for the post. We were ready for some decent news after the last 24 hours.

Intrade is a fun poll and it’s great to see the winner look like a winner in that poll, even if it is early. Rick brings positive energy (I actually hate that term) already to the race and it will be good to hear and see his announcement. Romney has had the run of the polls and the cash under the radar entirely long enough. If Rick runs well he can leap frog Romney and go all the way.


5 posted on 07/26/2011 10:05:05 PM PDT by RitaOK (We hang together or will hang separately. 2012, or bust)
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To: Clairity

Thanks for the post. We were ready for some decent news after the last 24 hours.

Intrade is a fun poll and it’s great to see the winner look like a winner in that poll, even if it is early. Rick brings positive energy (I actually hate that term) already to the race and it will be good to hear and see his announcement. Romney has had the run of the polls and the cash under the radar entirely long enough. If Rick runs well he can leap frog Romney and go all the way.


6 posted on 07/26/2011 10:05:09 PM PDT by RitaOK (We hang together or will hang separately. 2012, or bust)
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To: RitaOK

Good grief, I apologize x 2.


7 posted on 07/26/2011 10:06:43 PM PDT by RitaOK (We hang together or will hang separately. 2012, or bust)
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To: Clairity

Perry tops Romney.

Heh heh...


8 posted on 07/26/2011 10:13:51 PM PDT by citizencon
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Until Perry walks back his support of Amnesty and his Open Border positions.....

Until he supports the only viable solution to solving Illegal Immigration AZ1070.....

Until he actually supports a border fence....

He is not a viable candidate for conservatives.

If you think he is, then you are willing to compromise on a central issue to conservative, Ilegal Immigration and Amnesty.



July, 2001 - Address to the Texas Association of Mexican American Chambers of Commerce, regarding DREAM Act, Rewarding Illegal Immigrants
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/speech/10672/
Higher education should be open to all, not just an elite few. It must be responsive to the needs of our growing and changing population, and it must continue to push the envelope of excellence and innovation.

That growing and changing population includes children of undocumented workers, young boys and girls that we serve in our public schools because it is the right thing to do.

I believe it is time they get the same treatment in our colleges and universities. I signed House Bill 1403 so that young Texans who graduated from our public schools, regardless of their immigration status, will be able to pay in-state tuition and take part in the Texas Dream.

We want bright, new Texans to stay here, and contribute great things to our future.

We also want to ensure Texans of all backgrounds participate in graduate and professional degree programs. A new law I signed will ensure that graduate schools give weight to socio-economic conditions of applicants seeking entry into their schools, not just test scores. That is good public policy that will make a difference for Texans from all walks of life.


August, 2001, on Mexican Trucks, Bi-National Health Insurance, Open Borders, DREAM Act
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/speech/10688/
The fruits of NAFTA have just begun to ripen. At the same time, we must not allow the roots of the tree to become poisoned. The NAFTA agreement not only signaled a new era of economic possibility, but a new era of bi-national cooperation. That is why it is wrong, and inherently detrimental to our relationship with Mexico for the U.S. Congress to pursue a protectionist policy that forbids Mexican trucks from U.S. roadways. It is bad public policy, and it violates the terms of the NAFTA agreement we agreed to. Mexican trucks that meet our safety standards should be given the same access to U.S. roads as our Canadian neighbors to the north.

Legislation authored by border legislators Pat Haggerty and Eddie Lucio establishes an important study that will look at the feasibility of bi-national health insurance. This study recognizes that the Mexican and U.S. sides of the border compose one region, and we must address health care problems throughout that region. That’s why I am also excited that Texas Secretary of State Henry Cuellar is working on an initiative that could extend the benefits of telemedicine to individuals living on the Mexican side of the border.

As a compassionate state, we know that for our children to succeed, they must not only be healthy, but educated. The future leaders of our two nations are learning their fractions and their ABC’s in classrooms all along this border. Immigrants from around the world are being taught in Texas classrooms, and our history is rich with examples of new citizens who have made great contributions. We must say to every Texas child learning in a Texas classroom, “we don’t care where you come from, but where you are going, and we are going to do everything we can to help you get there.” And that vision must include the children of undocumented workers. That’s why Texas took the national lead in allowing such deserving young minds to attend a Texas college at a resident rate. Those young minds are a part of a new generation of leaders, the doors of higher education must be open to them. The message is simple: educacion es el futuro, y si se puede.

We also know that poverty is not unique to either side of the border. Some of Texas’ poorest citizens live in colonias all along the border. They often lack basic infrastructure many of us take for granted. Just today, the North American Development Bank announced it will provide $6.3 million in funding to hook up colonia residents in six border cities to water and wastewater lines. More than 18,000 residents will benefit from these water or wastewater hookups. And this November, by approving Proposition 2, Texas voters can ensure that their neighbors in colonias have quality roads so that school buses, emergency vehicles and postal trucks can reach residents, and residents can get to a job or a school reliably.

President Fox’s vision for an open border is a vision I embrace, as long as we demonstrate the will to address the obstacles to it. An open border means poverty has given way to opportunity, and Mexico’s citizens do not feel compelled to cross the border to find that opportunity. It means we have addressed pollution concerns, made substantial progress in stopping the spread of disease, and rid our crossings of illicit drug smuggling activity. Clearly we have a long way to go in addressing those issues. At the same time we must continue to deepen our economic ties, expanding opportunities for Mexican and U.S. companies to do business on both sides of the border. The outlook is promising, even if the road to prosperity is a long one. We share a bond as neighbors, and we find our culture north of the Rio Grande to be increasingly defined by the strong traits of people of Hispanic descent. Texas has long enjoyed a unique identity, an identity forged by an independent spirit, and the convergence of many different peoples. We must welcome change in the 21st Century as we have in every century before it.

Today, as we look to the south, we see a rising sun. It is perched above a people whose best days are in front of them. Let us endeavor to make the most of this new day through a new dialogue. Let us work together to combat disease, expand trade and provide educational opportunities. If we do, there are no limits to what we can accomplish for the betterment of all of our citizens. Thank you, and God bless you.


June, 2002, Addressing LULAC
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/speech/10785/
John Hernandez, it’s good to see you as well… and it’s good to once again be in the company of men and women who do so much for our state – Texans who build local businesses and create new jobs…who do important work in our communities…who know the importance of strong families and vibrant neighborhoods…the proud, talented and dedicated members of the League of United Latin American Citizens.

Ever since the founders of this organization first gathered in Corpus Christi 73 years ago, LULAC has been a force for greater empowerment, compassionate citizenship and social progress.

I want to commend our honorees this evening who have upheld the tradition of LULAC through a devotion to service. Actions speak louder than words, and your actions for Texas have spoken volumes.

With the political season upon us, some have asked me whether I would be willing to debate my opponent in Spanish. But I believe Spanish is too beautiful a language for Texans to suffer through an hour of me speaking it. I’m still working through “ser y estar.”


July, 2002, Support of No Child Left Behind
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/press-release/4392/
Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Secretary of Education Rod Paige announced today that Texas’ No Child Left Behind implementation plan has received federal approval. The approval clears the way for almost $400 million in new federal funding, moving the governor’s education plan a step closer to the classroom.

“Texas was a model for President Bush’s No Child Left Behind legislation, and we continue to lead the nation in innovative solutions to improve our schools,” Perry said. “The U.S. Department of Education’s stamp of approval means we can move forward with our plan to improve early childhood education, dropout prevention, teaching excellence, science education and our schools’ use of technology.”


November, 2003 on a border wall and guest workers
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/press-release/5015/
The long-term answer to the immigration challenges that confront us is not the building of structural barriers to keep people out, but the removal of economic barriers that keep people from experiencing opportunity and prosperity. When we allow for the free flow of commerce, energy and ideas, jobs and opportunity are created on both sides of our shared border.

Let me say something about the migrant workers who cross our border to work: They provide a real value to our economy and Texas benefits from the contributions they make. I will support reforms to our guest worker laws that allow migrant workers to contribute to our economy so long as the security of our border is in no way compromised.


January, 2004 - Support of guest workers
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/press-release/4310/
“During my visit with President Fox last November, I reaffirmed my support for a guest worker program that balances our two countries’ economic realities along with the need for homeland security. President Bush’s proposal reflects those goals.

June, 2005 - Address to LULAC State Convention
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/speech/10134/
Thank you, Roger (Rocha), for those kind words and for your leadership of a distinguished organization that is continuing to have a profound impact all across this state... ...the League of United Latino American Citizens.

I am always honored to be with men and women who are committed to building a future of unlimited opportunity for every Texan...
...where jobs are abundant...
...where families and communities are strong...
...and where every individual...
...regardless of the neighborhood they come from, or the sound of their last name...
...is empowered to control their own destiny.

Texas has come a long way in the march towards greater opportunity and empowerment in the 76 years since LULAC was founded.


December, 2006 - Speaking out against walled borders, in favor of open borders and guest workers
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/speech/9984/
We have just concluded an election year that was heavy on immigration rhetoric and light on comprehensive solutions. Divisive appeals do nothing to solve problems even if they do score temporary political points. It is time Washington got one of the central messages of this election: when it comes to immigration and border security- get the job done! We cannot wall off the border and solve anything. Strategic fencing in certain urban areas to direct the flow of traffic makes sense, but building a wall across the entire border is a preposterous idea. Imagine the sheriff of Presidio County, Danny Dominguez, and his four or five deputies patrolling 130 miles of a border wall. The only thing a wall would most certainly accomplish is an increase in the ladder making industry.

Washington needs to seek real solutions that protect our economy that take migrant workers out of the shadows by giving then an ID and allowing them to cross freely, and that at the same time recognizes the rule of law and the importance of not rewarding those who break our laws. Our economy is impacted greatly by migrant workers. Let’s create a guest worker program that takes those workers off the black market and that legitimizes their economic contributions without doing the same for their citizenship. I would rather know who it is that crosses our border legally to work, than not know who it is that crosses our border illegally to work. We can have immigration reform that doesn’t compromise our security, and we can have security that doesn’t compromise our economy. That’s my goal, and it is time Washington shared it.


December, 2006, on deporting illegals, supporting guest workers
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/editorial/10326/
But to me neither amnesty nor mass deportation is the answer. The first unfairly rewards those who broke our laws, and the latter is not only unrealistic and unenforceable, but it would devastate our economy. That’s why I support a guest worker program that takes undocumented workers off the black market and legitimizes their economic contributions without providing them citizenship status.

January, 2007 - Oath of Office Address, Guest Workers
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/press-release/2305/
Perry addressed the divisive issue of border security and immigration by quoting the prophet Isaiah: “come now, and let us reason together.” “We are both a nation of laws and immigrants; the former protect us, the latter enrich us,” Perry said. “We must secure the border with manpower, not unmanned walls. We must have a guest-worker program that recognizes the economic contributions of foreign workers and the desperate conditions that bring them here.

February, 2007 - Guest Workers
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/speech/29/
A guest worker program recognizes the contributions of foreign workers and captures their income in our tax system, ensuring they contribute to the public services we provide them. And a guest worker program will help us know who crosses our border legally rather than not knowing who crosses our border illegally. Illegal immigration is a problem felt deeply by Texas, while too often ignored by Washington.

February, 2007 - LULAC Gala, selling State Lottery to fund healthcare for the uninsured
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/speech/5556/
Thank you. I am so honored to be with you, the distinguished membership of a group that fights for equal opportunities and envisions a Texas that is ample in opportunity. It is good to see so many legislators, including several honorees tonight, Senator Zaffirini, Representative Gallego, Representative Noriega and Representative Anchia. They are good and decent Texans. Even though we don’t share a party, I am proud to serve by their side. I am particularly proud of another one of your honorees because he and I spent a year together traveling Texas as he served as my administrative assistant. Now he is the leading voice for the Texas Motor Transportation Association, John Esparza. If only his Red Raiders would stop beating my Aggies the world would be perfect.

It was nearly 80 years ago when a national movement began in Corpus Christi, they called themselves the League of United Latin American Citizens. Today, their vision is alive and well, and you are the living embodiment of it. And while we have a ways to go in tearing down barriers to opportunity, I have never felt better about the future of Texas because this is a state that welcomes all and includes all. And anything is possible in Texas for those who study hard, work hard and aspire to succeed.


One of the best ways to improve our economy is to improve access to health insurance for our workers. We have two million working Texans with a family income below 40,000 who are uninsured. They are just one accident, one bad diagnosis away from financial ruin. I believe we must use our moment of prosperity to ensure their long-term fiscal and physical health. I have proposed the sale of the Texas lottery for one reason and one reason only: to invest in our future. With a conservative estimate of $14 billion from such a sale, we could create a trust fund for the uninsured that would generate close to a quarter billion dollars every year in perpetuity. This is money that could provide premium assistance for private and employer-sponsored policies.

February, 2007 - Sale of State Lottery, to help insure the uninsured
Note: This was proposed in part by Phil Gramm, who wanted his company to help the state sell the lottery, and his company just so happened to have hired Rick Perry's son
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/press-release/2288/
Additionally, $270 million in annual trust fund earnings is proposed to create a premium assistance program for the uninsured. More than 2 million uninsured Texans are below 200 percent of the federal poverty limit. Perry’s proposed “Healthier Texas” program would help individuals purchase health insurance through employer-based programs or private plans.

March, 2007 - Sale of the state lottery to help insure the uninsured
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/speech/9365/
I have also proposed using proceeds from the sale of the lottery to provide insurance to more than a half million working Texans.

August, 2007 - Trip to Mexico City, responding to reporters
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5090944.html
MEXICO CITY — Leading a large delegation of Texas executives trying to drum up business in Mexico, Gov. Rick Perry on Tuesday criticized the U.S. Congress for failing to pass an immigration bill that would legalize millions of workers.

"I don't think this is that difficult an issue if Congress would have the maturity to sit down and really discuss it and cut out all the mean rhetoric," Perry said during a break in the third day of meetings with Mexican officials and business executives.

"We need those individuals to continue to grow our economy," he said of Texas' undocumented workers, most of whom hail from Mexico. "The vast, vast majority of those individuals want to come and work and take care of their families."

Perry made the remarks in Mexico City, where immigration is nearly as big a hot-button issue as it is in Washington. He spoke at a press conference shortly before meeting with President Felipe Calderon who, like past Mexican presidents, has lobbied for changes in U.S. immigration law that would include a guest-worker program.

Perry's statements seemed to put him at odds with many in the Republican Party's base who regarded the immigration overhaul bill that collapsed in the Senate in June as nothing more than an amnesty for illegal immigrants.

August, 2007 - Trip to Mexico, response to reporters, anger at wall, need for illegal immigrants
http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/08/28/mexico-texas-idUSN2827524820070828
Perry, in Mexico with a Texan trade mission seeking opportunities in areas like renewable energy, said the federal government's plan to build a wall along much of the border to keep out illegal immigrants was "idiocy."

"We need those individuals to continue to grow our economy," Perry told a briefing with reporters.

"If you show up illegally, without your card or you're here as a criminal element, I'm for throwing the book at those folks, but the issue of people who want to legally, thoughtfully and appropriately come to America to work and help us build our economy -- we should quickly come up with a program and an identification card to do that."

Congress failed to pass a comprehensive overhaul of immigration laws in June despite heavy lobbying by President George W. Bush.

Following the reform failure, Washington is concentrating on border enforcement -- building a security fence along the Mexican border, deporting undocumented immigrants and trying to prevent companies from hiring illegal migrants.

Perry, a Republican, said it was important to separate immigration from security issues, which Texas has dealt with on its stretch of the Mexican border by deploying more guards.

"We know how to deal with border security, and you don't do it by building a fence," Perry said, ahead of a meeting with Mexican President Felipe Calderon.


October, 2007 - Perry on a pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage, pro-gun control candidate for President of the United States:
http://web.archive.org/web/20080228054735/http://www.joinrudy2008.com/article/missed/908
The time that we’ve spent together, whether it’s been on the phone or it’s been face-to-face, I’ve asked him some tough questions. I’ve looked him in his eye as he answered. I studied his positions. And I will tell you I have been highly impressed with his record. I’ve taken the measure of a man. And I believe that without a doubt or reservation that Rudy Giuliani is the most capable, the most prepared individual of either party to be the next President of the United States. He is the best of a strong field of Republican candidates and I’m proud to proclaim my support of his campaign. So I am proud to introduce to you America’s Mayor, a proven fiscal conservative, a leader who gets things done and the best hope of our nation’s future.

April, 2010 - On Arizona-style legislation to deal with illegal immigrants
http://governor.state.tx.us/news/press-release/14574/
"Recently, there has been much debate over immigration policy in Washington and what has been implemented in Arizona. I fully recognize and support a state's right and obligation to protect its citizens, but I have concerns with portions of the law passed in Arizona and believe it would not be the right direction for Texas.

9 posted on 07/26/2011 10:35:26 PM PDT by SoConPubbie
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To: RitaOK

“Intrade is a fun poll...”

No it’s not, it’s a group of crooks. Crazy ones.


10 posted on 07/26/2011 10:36:29 PM PDT by ngat
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To: Clairity

At 56% name recognition, Perry surpasses only Cain, Pawlenty, Santorum and Huntsman, making him fifth from last.
Perry will run, recieve the nomination, and slay Buckwheat (if Buckwheat is the dim nominee). I have doubts about that.


11 posted on 07/26/2011 10:51:04 PM PDT by matthew fuller (Forget impeachment- Extradite obama, biden, napolitano, muller, clinton and holder. Country saved!)
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To: ngat

” No it’s not, it’s a group of crooks. Crazy ones.” <<<<

It’s a fun poll, full of foreign and domestic speculaters predicting outcomes. They use real and play money and in the heat of the 2004 Bush/Gore battle, Intrade called Florida for Bush by a comfortable margin and predicted the correct outcome between the two in every state.


12 posted on 07/26/2011 10:54:28 PM PDT by RitaOK (We hang together or will hang separately. 2012, or bust)
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To: RitaOK

In 2004 Bush ran against Kerry.


13 posted on 07/26/2011 11:07:57 PM PDT by ngat
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To: ngat

My goodness that took a bunch of clicks to scroll down past.


14 posted on 07/26/2011 11:30:49 PM PDT by tlb
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To: tlb; SoConPubbie; ngat

ngat beg your pardon. Misaddressed post.


15 posted on 07/26/2011 11:34:27 PM PDT by tlb
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To: citizencon
Perry tops Romney. Heh heh...

Well, they say Perry's a top .... I just didn't know Mittens is a bottom -- I thought the magic underpants were supposed to protect against that?

</s>

16 posted on 07/27/2011 4:28:27 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus (Concealed carry is a pro-life position.)
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To: matthew fuller
At 56% name recognition, Perry surpasses .....

He's got 56% name recognition? Among whom? Where the heck did he get to 56%? By doing what?

17 posted on 07/27/2011 4:31:01 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus (Concealed carry is a pro-life position.)
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To: SoConPubbie
Perry's also got some quotes out there from an address he gave fairly recently to the National Council of La Raza. Saw that on TV recently, I think.

Are you aware of that speech? Mi casa, su casa, yo disfruto povres trabajadores Mexicanos and bla bla bla -- yo homes, come on up and bid our wages down some more!

18 posted on 07/27/2011 4:35:42 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus (Concealed carry is a pro-life position.)
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To: SoConPubbie

Texas and Mexico have an intertwined history, demography, and politics going back 175 years.

No governor of Texas can or will adopt the policies you favor, and everybody knows it.

I’m much more concerned that he may be a globalist.


19 posted on 07/27/2011 4:36:45 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Freedom is the freedom to say 2+2=4. If that is granted, all else follows.)
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To: SoConPubbie
Or was that Obama?

I confuse them so easily ....

20 posted on 07/27/2011 4:38:49 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus (Concealed carry is a pro-life position.)
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