The Navy and Air force will always have high retention rates because a majority are not involved in land combat, living in the trenches, and getting mortared and rocketed on a daily basis. Marines and Army are going to be greatly impacted by this policy, and I expect to see more of the infantry types leave at a higher rate than normal. The going is good in the navy and air force these days, I wouldn’t leave either.
No argument here. Yet look at the numbers. All four branches are currently meeting manning quotas, Army and Marines included, and they're doing so without waivers. Try getting into the military today with a DUI or drug conviction on your record. No thanks. Tats below short-sleeves? There's the door!
Now, obviously the lousy economy is playing a huge part in this. Will the DADT repeal by itself bring the numbers down? I honestly don't know. My money says that retention and recruitment goals will continue to be met (perhaps begrudgingly) until the civilian economy improves. There's just not much out there right now.