[kevkrom]

If Cain was known by as many people that know Palin (had the same size potential suppoter pool), he would easily be in 1st place

Logical fallacy. It's possible that this is true, but the assertion relies on assumptions that may or may not be true, for example, any or all of the following may be true, and thus belie your assertion:

• Cain's popularity is high in the portion of the sample that have heard of him, because those who are most actively paying attention are more likely to support Cain. His support rate in the remaining population may be considerably lower, even after exposure.
• Cain's popularity may be tied to his status as an underdog. If he becomes a "favored" candidate, some of that support may shift.
• Similarly, Cain's relative lack of exposure may be helping his support as he is seen by some as an idealized form of himself and additional spotlight might take some of the bloom off of that rose, for instance.
• Cain is actually declared for the race and many of his (potential) competitors are not. This may skew the results of the poll.

Again, I'm not discounting the possibly that Cain will gain more support as he gains exposure. Just pointing out that asserting that he will (or would) without considering other factors that might come into play by that time is an error in logic.

[Pollster1]

Excellent summary.

[absolootezer0]

it’s doubtful he’ll draw a noticable number away from palin no matter how much popularity he gains. he might, however get some from gingrich and pawlenty- however, if either of them drop out i’d expect their votes to split pretty evenly between palin and cain, but either one going out should bump both up ahead of romney.