Posted on 04/21/2011 2:58:19 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
Most of us think that a more accurate electoral map would put the GOP slightly ahead, and that Sabato is still living pretty much in 2008.
They put another McCain type old guy [retread], and the GOP guy will lose - again.
I tend to agree with that. More important than the candidate's age is his (or her) record and ideology. No more RINOS!
Your EV totals are from before the 2010 Census; Obama’s road to reelection is even more uphill than you estimated:
Obama’s 365 EVs in 2008 came from states that in 2012 will only have 359 EVs.
Obama won one EV from NE (he narrowly won the Omaha-based CD); no way he comes within 10% of winning it in 2012, so he’s down to 358.
IN and NC went very narrowly for Obama because he held his ground in normally GOP suburban areas; that won’t happen in 2012, so he’s down to 332.
FL and OH went for Obama by like 5% in 2008; they will go GOP by at least 5% in 2012, so he’s down to 287.
VA gave Obama 53% or so in 2008, but he’ll be lucky to get 47% in 2012, so he’s down to 274.
So all the GOP candidate needs to do to win is pick up one of NV, CO, NM or IA, all of which voted for President Bush in 2004, or one of WI, PA, MI or MN, which gave President Bush 48% or more in 2004, or the New England combo of NH + the ME-02 CD.
So while it isn’t impossible for Obama to win, the GOP is certainly sitting in the catbird seat for 2012.
Have to ascertain where Obama voter remorse is the greatest. Which state has the greatest number of Independents who went for Obama, but have now seen the light? Which states have been hardest by Obanomics?
Of your choices, I would vote for the GOP taking one of NV, CO, NM or IA before the second group you mentioned.
The left in WI is very energized. That Prosser election shouldn't have even been close, let alone within the margin for a recount. PA has not been hit as hard economically as some other states and minorities will come out big for Obama. MI has been devastated, but they have a huge union influence and may credit Obama with saving GM. MN=Franken, they're hopeless, IMO. NH and ME 2 - maybe, but NH has been polluted by neighboring liberal states (VT, esp.) and is not as conservative as it once was.
NV has been decimated with plummeting real estate prices as well as high unemployment. Steve Wynn had an interesting exchange with Cavuto. Wynn was an Obama voter, but he's seen the devastation Obama has done to Las Vegas and has seen the light. Don't know much about the situation in CO (although taking back CO-3 and CO-4 may be a good omen), NM, and IA.
Interesting to speculate, but definitely looks doable for a good GOP candidate. We had a glimpse of voter unrest on Nov. 2, but don't yet know if it has gotten worse or will get worse.
Your math and the logic behind it look very sound to me.
I agree. This has Jimmuh Carter written all over it. The gas crisis in the mideast did him in. We have another crisis in the mideast, which Zero is mishandling. I hope I’m not wrong, but Zero is his own worst enema, er, enemy.
Another thing, we’re getting voter ID in a bunch of states, which will rid the Dems of another of their weapons.
Thanks justiceseeker93.
Lousy Larry skews to Obama as excepted.
Indiana and NC aren’t tossups this time. VA either.
New Mexico should probably be tossup not lean rat. WI for sure. Maybe PA and MI too.
Minnesota shouldn’t be likely rat, it’s been trending GOP.
There’s also no way Barry wins Texas which he has as likely Republican. I’d say we’re a 100 times more likely to win MN than Obama is to win “likely Republican” Georgia, Arizona or Texas. He’d need crazy Black turnout in Georgia. Maybe he could get AZ in a landslide scenario.
If Gen. Eric Republican (terrible pun, I know) were on the ballot we’d win I think. Obama’s hope is a bad GOP nominee.
As Phil Collins pointed out the other day the super-incompetant Jimmuh Carter is the only incumbent rat to go down since Grover Cleveland so it’s harder than it looks.
Slimebags Woodrow Wilson and Harry Truman were supposed to be dead in the water and they pulled it off by their eyeteeth.
Using the generic Republican model, this is my "feel" for 2012 (with the RIGHT colors). The EV is 296R-242D. If the unemployment rate continues to stay high, I think WI & MI could tip to us. PA is a problem because of the Philadelphia voter fraud, even though we'll carry most of the counties (I'm thinking PA wouldn't do so bad to give us an assist by awarding EVs via district, for which we'd win a majority).
Yeah Corbett won by only 9% despite bitchslapping the rat in most of the state. And Michigan has the remnants of D-town.
All the states Bush won right there.
I feel pretty good about Iowa and NH. Can 2 rural white states be so stupid again?
Little worried about Colorado, it seems to be a true tossup state now like it’s neighbors NV and NM. Stupid Denver suburbanites.
DJ, looking at your map, I noticed that my math must have been off, so I went back and saw that I overstated Obama’s EVs by 2 when I subtracted OH’s and FL’s EVs from his total. So if Obama wins the same states he won in 2008 except for the NE CD, IN, NC, OH, FL and VA, he’d be at 272, and wouldn’t be able to afford to lose any of NH, NV, NM, CO, IA, WI, MN or PA and still get reelected.
Yes, the coloring with 'Rats=Blue and Pubbies=Red is one of those subtle brainwashing techniques that the MSM has thrust upon our consciousness since 2000. Since blue has traditionally been the color of loyalty and red the color of the radical left, your map colors are more appropriate.
I've seen older electoral maps from past elections where your color scheme is used.
The rout will be even larger with my man, Donny, at the top of the ticket, with Michele as VP.
Then you can add either/or NY or NJ to the “FM Blue” list.
New Mexico will be won the Republican. In 2010, Republicans gained a seat, in the U.S. House, in NM, and they elected a republican governor. WI & PA will be won by the Republican. In 2010, both of them elected Republicans to the U.S. Senate and governorship. All four of those people replaced Democrats.
I disagree. NY will not vote for any Republican over Obama, although NJ might. And Trump would be a disastrous GOP presidential candidate, doing even worse than McCain did.
I live in Illinois, so I know that it will be a swing state, not a safe democrat state. In 2010, IL elected a republican to the U.S. Senate, to replace a retiring Democrat. In 2010, four IL democrat congressmen ran for re-election and lost. IL elected Republicans to be the state treasurer and comptroller, to replace retiring Democrats. Republicans gained seats in the state senate and state house.
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