Posted on 03/26/2011 12:32:27 AM PDT by Rashputin
I disagree. IF the Muslim Brotherhood takes over both Libya and Egypt, both will revert to poisonous "frontline states" and there will be a new war with Israel -- and the United States, this time, will be Israel's sole support. With Obama in the White House, think what that means. I'm convinced that he is committed to Israel's destruction. I don't know if he is a devout "secret" Moslem, or simply sympathetic because of his curriculum vitae to the Islamist cause, or if he is simply a subornee and creature of Islamism and rich Wahhabists.
The MB, you will recall, is not a mere corresponding movement of, but is actually a wellspring of, Al-Q'aedism. Abu Ayman may be a loudmouth and a kind of opportunist -- the Kato Kaelin of terrorism -- but his presence at the side of Osama Bin Laden is hugely significant for the identity of MB with the leadership of the worldwide jihadist terror movement.
The internet savvy, well educated young protesters that led the demonstrations on Tahrir square are a minority. Seasoned diplomats understand that there is a big risk in casting your lot with only about 10% of the population.
Diplomacy is the art of the possible. Israel sits next to Egypt and Syria. Right now we cannot predict what will come out of Syria in the near term. So you really have to play your cards well with Egypt because Syria is a big unknown.
Withdrawing your aid billions will be a serious mistake. Something will give, and your capacity to influence Egyptian politics will be degraded. The Chinese will gladly take the slack and add the Suez canal to their acquisition of the Panama canal.Israel will also be affected.
All said, the genuine secular pro-democracy protesters should be supported.
In the unlikely event that Egypt sets up an Islamist State, be rest assured that it will fail. There is no evidence that the modern Islamic State is economically viable. (Saudi Arabia is awash with oil, this is why they can afford to hold on to Medieval practices - Egypt is not that blessed with natural resources).
You cannot also depend solely on your Oil & Gas reserves - that is not how the market is structured. Oil is a fungible commodity, so whatever happens in that region will always affect the price of crude globally - unless you revert to a command economy.
There are responsibilities, risks and rewards of being the sole superpower. I am sorry, you have to get on with it.
lentulusgracchus,
The Turkish economy grew by 8.9% during the first three quarters of 2010 and it has been growing quite rapidly for the past 10 years. So Erdogan and AKP are feeling quite good with themselves.
Whether Turkey needs Europe more than Europe needs Turkey could be a topic of intense debate in the coming decades. The demographics of Europe will make sustained economic growth very difficult. Meanwhile, Turkey offers a relatively large, young and skilled population. In addition, Turkey has recently been looking East (towards the ‘stans’ and China) and South (towards Africa).
I don’t fully understand what Mr. Erdogan is up to, but it is a much more benign affair than what obtains in Pakistan and Iraq. Mr. Erdogan is not in the habit of committing the type of human rights abuses the Generals were known for, and he has really performed well economically (better than most Kemalists). So he is genuinely popular.
Now I am not sure if Europe and America have a problem with the Turkish model so far.
Let’s take a step back.
I am in the habit of buying the end of the year edition of ‘the Economist’ in which the key issues for the following year are discussed. The smart folks at the ‘the Economist’ had absolutely no clue that some serious was brewing in the Arab World.
And most of us didn’t.
Let us be humble enough to say we don’t really understand what is going on.
The second point is what exactly is the US Government supposed to do if Egyptians wanted Mubarak to leave - insist that he stays?
Do you know enough about the Egyptian army to know whether they would sit back and allow the MB to rule Egypt? I accept that the secular coalition in Egypt is disorganised, but remember that Mubarak’s people are still in power and Mubarak hated the brothers.
Perhaps you can query the poster as to their national origin. This is the internet and it may not always be wise to give too many personal details online. How many African Christians have done graduate work w/Iranian nationals and had educated parents? Caution is often the best route.
Many Americans have commented on the quality of Al Jazeera’s news content, even some FReepers. I rarely watch CNN, do not subscribe to the alphabets and live beyond over-the-air reception, but FNC, while having reporters in the region, often takes days to report fully on events I have read about online. The poster is dead on about the celebrity segments. As an older American, I often have no idea who the people are, why they are famous and could care less. It is shallow and a waste of time. So, I do not get your point, unless it is to tarnish someone because they have listened to/watched and learned from an Arabic network while residing in another country/continent or to attempt to chastise me for being naive.
The poster was warning Americans that they are rather ignorant of world politics, especially if they rely on FNC. He goes on to (again: gently) remind us that there is a war on for the hearts and minds of the world. We knew China was gaining control of land and resources in Africa, but I, at least, was unaware that working Africans go to lengths to learn a difficult language and obviously see China as their future.
His remonstrations reminded me of my own travel experiences, where my husband and I, while still young, went out of our way to escape the tourist resorts and get to know the people who worked there on their own terms. This was 20-35 years ago and we consistently found that people in other countries are better informed than we are about global politics and, in some cases, macro-economics and that they were frustrated beyond belief by the average American and European tourist. Everyone we met after 1995 owned a TV and received satellite coverage complete with multi-lingual closed captions. We learned to never assume that because someone was working in the tourist industry, they were also of menial mind. Sometimes, it was the best job available for someone who was also multi-lingual.
Even in Papua New Guinea in 1975, there was a native educated class that saw themselves as role models for the masses still living with one foot in the Stone Age. These people were educated in Australia and the UK. They were serious, often earnestly brilliant individuals and could offer insights not available to Americans of the same era. We always entered into these relationships as students, avoiding, as best we could, the insular, aggravating American attitudes that so frustrate the educated classes around the world. Never once did we encounter people who whitewashed their own leaders, at least, not once they got to know us. Everyone is always cautious, at first and that is totally understandable.
A few facts about the mullahs, that the poster states are *surprising* to Americans and which do not conflict with what I have read elsewhere, is not propaganda. I found it interesting that devout Muslim clerics promoted birth control and went out of the way to educate women. Since I have often read that Iranian women are no longer allowed to work once they have children, that makes it even more interesting to me as an insight into the mullah’s policies. Evidently, they want to reduce their birth rate. Is that because they are broke or because they distrust their subject citizens? Perhaps our African Christian poster can elaborate.
As the poster implies, the era of Cyrus the Great was a high point of Persian culture. I took the comment as gentle sarcasm, pro-Persian and a reminder that Iran was not only always Muslim, but that educated Iranians today are fed up with their rulers.
We Americans are often seen as being too blunt while lacking important information. Our lives, until quite recently, have been sheltered, one-sided and quite comfortable. This is not the case in other countries, especially non-Western ones. The poster reminded me of many individuals I have known abroad and I still do not doubt he can add to our understanding of the world as it is.
YMMV.
Not with the modernizing, secularist model of Ataturk and his successors -- which btw entailed a good deal of personal freedom except in certain sensitive areas of politics like the Kurdish issue and the Turkish Communists and Islamists.
And Americans trying to smuggle hashish out of the country.
I didn't say I did understand it; rather I posted that Obama had multiple sources and did not share his insights with his People, but rather acted against their interest.
He had both official US and (no doubt sanitized for some time now, in consideration of the current occupant of the White House) Mossad intelligence, and he also had continuing contacts with the Muslim Brotherhood via back channels.
My point was that our President is playing games with us, to benefit the Islamists.
Ha ha ha. Look at his muslim Georgetown. Guess he thought he could having them winning just by putting their name on a bracket. But just like his Libya fiasco Georgetown goes down.
Bump.
Would that include the 87% in Egypt who are all about having sharia the law of the land, replete with stonings and beheadings?
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