What's Behind Egypt's Problems?

The Oil Drum ^ | January 29, 2011 - 6:15pm | Gail the Actuary

[musicman]

I believe it!! They make other “styles”!!

[Jude in WV]

I think the baby pacifier in the photo is one of them. That’s what made me think of it.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

From the comments at TOD...a link:

U.S. Energy Policy Is Responsible for Unrest in Egypt

**************************EXCERPT***********************************

The world continues to suffer from America's addiction to foreign oil and its inability to craft a strategic long-term comprehensive energy policy to reduce consumption of foreign oil. In the recent past the world has witnessed $148/barrel oil and an oil war in Iraq. The unrest in Egypt is the latest result of American oil dependency. Is this an absurd statement? Before you vent your disagreements in the comment section following the article, please let me explain.


(Click to enlarge)

The Price of Oil: As it goes up, American wealth evaporates

Glancing at the oil price chart above, is it any wonder the S&P500 has done practically nothing in the last decade? Meantime, is it any wonder many oil stocks have doubled or more in that same time span? Of course not.

But is it true that America's addiction to foreign oil can cause unrest in Egypt?

America spends around $1 billion dollars per day on foreign oil. Oil is by far the largest component of the foreign trade deficit. As a result, America's wealth is being steadily and increasingly sucked out of the country and sent to foreign oil producers. These are not opinions and a PhD in economics is not required to understand such a basic concept. These are facts. Now, in order to make up for this dependency on foreign oil (and the U.S. government's inability to acknowledge the problem and enact logical policy fixes) the United States long ago decided to reject the gold standard and allow the Federal Reserve to print money out of thin air. And this is exactly what the Fed has been doing - printing money out of thin air and devaluing the U.S. dollar.

Printing money out of thin air is enabling America to "fund" the oil war in Iraq. It allows the U.S. to "fund" its military so it can act as "policemen of the world". It allows the U.S. government to "fund" deficit spending. And it enables China to take an increasingly large ownership stake in America by virtue of their huge holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds. Most recently, the Fed has attempted to "re-inflate" the stagnate U.S. economy by implementing a $600 billion dollar "QE2" program. As I have written before, this $600 billion dollars might buy us, at most, 600 days of "economic prosperity" (remember, oil imports are about $1 billion per day). Although the U.S. dollar has not dropped as much as I expected the result of such misguided and illogical policy is to inflate commodity prices - specifically oil and food. As such, we have seen investors flock to commodities including oil, gold, wheat, corn, and other foodstuffs. [ I should mention here, the only reason the U.S. dollar has not depreciated further is because it is the least bad currency out there. Once the Chinese figure out they cannot solve their inflation problem without letting the Yuan appreciate, you will see a substantial move lower in the U.S. dollar. ]

So: "QE2" --> higher oil prices --> more $'s leaving the U.S. --> need more "QE"

(or, as we say in engineering, thermal runaway ...)

Making things even worse is American policymakers' support and expansion of the idiotic ethanol mandates. As I have written many times before this is a seriously misguided policy which merely causes huge dislocations in the food markets. Supposedly this policy is because Iowa is such an important state when it comes to Presidential elections. However, the good farmers in Iowa will one find out that they too are part of the U.S.A. and spend the same greenbacks as do citizens in every other state. A serious devaluation of the U.S. dollar will affect all Americans - even farmers in Iowa. So I repeat myself yet again: Ethanol is simply a tool by government and oil industry lobbyists to keep Americans addicted to liquid gasoline (i.e. foreign oil) when we should be transitioning to cheaper, cleaner, and domestic gaseous fuels (i.e. natural gas and hydrogen).

My readers already know I support natural gas transportation as the focal point of a strategic long-term comprehensive energy policy to reduce foreign oil imports and the need to print money out of thin air to "fund" this addiction. However, nothing is more a testament to pathetic U.S. energy policy than was an article last week's Wall Street Journal titled "Gas Exports Fuel Debate." The article discusses how Freeport LNG Development and Cheniere Energy (LNG) are making plans to export American natural gas. Think about this for a second or two. Our country is going to export a clean and cheap domestic fuel (natural gas) so that we can import an expensive and dirty foreign fuel (oil)! This ranks right up there with the oxymoronic "clean coal" initiative as how dumb American energy policymakers must appear to the rest of the world.

[Marine_Uncle]

Perhaps the author should delve more into the super regulatory system this country faces in not being able to extract and transport all the natural gas some of us would like to see happen. Not to mention how much oil we could be pumping out of the GOM and other offshore and on shore sites.
As usual there are always two sides of an argument.

[SouthTexas]

Global cooling would likely decrease the Global yield.

That's what they said back in the days of global cooling (70s), we were all going to starve!

[1010RD]

Add nuclear and coal and you’ve got the exact situation America faces. The Left and Obama are looking to reduce energy consumption by the Ugly Americans.

It’s causing our problems and now the world’s. We need energy liberty and we need it now.

[Thud]

ping

[Marine_Uncle]

Bad me. Should have added the coal and nuclear options as well.

[sefarkas]

America's wealth is being steadily and increasingly sucked out of the country and sent to foreign oil producers. These are not opinions and a PhD in economics is not required to understand such a basic concept. These are facts.

As with all exchanges be it barter or commodity for cash, the issue is how much wealth can you create for the money spent. If the money spent for oil enables customers/business to create wealth with products more valuable than the oil purchased, then a PhD is not required. What is required is smart business that earns a profit by selling product above the cost of production.

[jpsb]

"So this uprising is triggered by some very real economic problems"

That is my take thus far. High unemployment, rising food prices and a totalitarian government (Hello DC). How it all turns out is any ones guess, but it hard to root for high unemployment, rising food prices and a totalitarian government.

[jpsb]

"He didn’t mention how our Federal Reserve printing money like there’s no tomorrow could be "

Excellent point, since just about everything is valued in dollars and since the fed is devaluing the dollar prices world wide are going up. Just has not hit us here in the USA hard yet, but it will.

[jpsb]

"They take Egypt, then Saudi is next"

The house of Saud will be the last to fall, the Saudi(s) are very rich and very happy, no revolt there anytime soon.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Ernest. I’ll have to disagree — it’s dead wrong — the rioting is all about Islam.

Regardless, it’s been fomented from outside. The alternative is, spontaneous and widespread protests / riots have sprung up across Tunisia, Egypt, and Jordan — two of which have treaties with Israel, and the other which had a Jewish community by the 7th c BC and up until the present (a good many left to the modern state of Israel starting in 1948); in Yemen, which concluded a decades-long civil war and partition to reunite, and then be dismembered again by al-Qaeda; Morocco, which has been attacked by jihadists over the years, one of whom fled and founded Radio Islam; and even Libya, which has suddenly ingratiated itself with the US and EU; and of course, Lebanon; and al-Jazeera has been attacking the PA with accusations, while the bloody mass-murderers of Hamas have not been targeted.

[Valin]

Thanks for this.
The real problem is an incompetent regime that has been in power for way to long.

[happygrl]

These shortages are a result of the crack-pot ideologies of the Elite.

Thanks Al.

How’s that MacMansion working out for you?

[happygrl]

Most public entities, such as local and state governments, have some fleet that is Natural-gas fueled.

There is no reason that these cannot be expanded, with trucking being the next sectore targeted for conversion.

Either 0bama is constitutionally incompetent, and should be removed, or he is treasonous, in steering the country toward this energy debacle.

[FreedomPoster]

Very likely so. But Islamic forces, via the Muslim Brotherhood, are the most coherent force in the country, after the military, if/once unrest drives out the current leaders. And who knows how the military will react at this point. That is the big question at the moment.

[FreedomPoster]

What new technologies would those be?

[FreedomPoster]

From one of the comments there, this looks prescient:

EGYPT: Fears of a food crisis after Russia’s wheat export ban
August 8, 2010 | 8:44 am
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2010/08/egypt-fears-of-a-crisis-after-russias-wheat-export-ban.html

[Impy]

I’m cautiously hopeful for Egypt.

Saudi Arabia is the one I worry about becoming the next Iran if they ever had a revolt against the Sultan.