Posted on 01/27/2011 3:11:36 AM PST by Scanian
We are slightly more than 21 months away from the 2012 presidential election. The election in 2012 will be not a simple referendum on Barack Obama (for which an approval score is a proxy), but a choice between two candidates. While many potential GOP candidates are exploring a run, it is not possible at this point to even select a favorite from the bunch, since the field is so uncertain, and some candidates designated by some pundits as second-tier would diminish the prospects of others considered as first-tier if they ran. An example of this would be if Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin both ran, or if Mitch Daniels and Mike Pence both ran.
If the GOP candidate who emerges is the strongest general election nominee, the odds on President Obama's reelection are very different from if the GOP nominee is popular within the party but has limited appeal to the over 60% of voters who are not Republicans. It is not at all surprising that President Obama has made direct and indirect appeals to independent voters with his actions and speeches since the November rout, when independent voters broke sharply towards the GOP. While enthusiasm from the conservative base or the liberal base is critical for turnout and grassroots activism, most elections are won by candidates who have broad electoral appeal.
In an article in American Thinker, Paul Kengor made the case that President Obama is practically assured of victory in 2012 since his approval ratings seem to have a floor of 40%. In fact, Obama's approval number is now 10% higher -- just over 50% in an average of the many surveys that track the approval score.
Republicans should be so lucky as to run against an incumbent with only a 40% approval number.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
If they serve up another Republican Liberal like they did last presidential election, there’s no way out. The prom night coziness of the Republicans and their Demonrat girlfriends for the Sad-State-Of-The-Union didn’t look very promising to me.
I am thinking it will be Palin and she will shellac him.
Agreed, we need a candidate who stands out against this vile they spew, not goes beddy time with them..
We need constant you lie moments until they do our will, drastic cuts on the federal government etc..and if they can’t then even keep our borders and organize the army for a common good, then we need that changed too.
ohbamma is such a putrid person, lying is his norm, ignorance is his mantra..
“I am thinking it will be Palin and she will shellac him.”
I would hope you’re correct, but when I mention her name Left-leaners start foaming at the mouth. That kind of naked, burning hatred will have gasoline thrown on it by the MSM. That energy level will be tough to beat.
We actually need for Obama to refuse to sign a healthcare repeal. I see that as the issue that will hang him. If he actually signs it and moves to the center, then we’re sunk.
The Arizona and soon Pennsylvania and Texas elegibility proof requirements should snowball and end Obama’s Presidency.
As long as the GOP runs a candidate that is actually perceived as conservative, we are in good shape.
Based on the New Electoral College Apportionment, safe states for Obama and the Generic Conservative Candidate (i.e., Palin) are deadlocked at 196. She can win folks, she can really win.
Obama Safe States 196 (HI, CA, OR, WA, MN, IL, ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC)
Conservative Safe States: 196 (we win back IN and NC without much of a battle): (AK, ID, UT, AZ, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, TN, KY, WV, IN)
Obama Lean States: 46 PA, NV, NH, MI
Conservative Lean States: 70 MO, OH, VA, FL
Absolute Toss-Ups: WI, IA, CO (get the lawyers here early!), NM (have them on stand-by here!)
Palin (or any real conservative for that matter): 275
Obama: 263
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