2012 may be a bad year for Senate Dems. I see at least 9 seats in play. 1 GOPer seat in play (Scot Brown). If any one disagrees, please say so.
Rats
Tom Carper of Delaware - safe
Daniel Akaka of Hawaii - safe
Ben Cardin of Maryland - safe
Bob Menendez of New Jersey - safe (unless Christie runs)
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico - safe
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York - safe
Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island - safe
Maria Cantwell of Washington - safe
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin - semisafe
Bob Casey, Jr. - semisafe
Dianne Feinstein of California - semisafe
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota - semisafe
Bill Nelson of Florida - In trouble
Claire McCaskill of Missouri - In trouble
Jon Tester of Montana - In trouble (won in 2006 due to false pretenses)
Kent Conrad of North Dakota - In trouble
Sherrod Brown of Ohio - In trouble
Jim Webb of Virginia - In trouble
Joe Manchin of West Virginia - In trouble
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan - In deep trouble
Ben Nelson of Nebraska - goner
GOP
Jon Kyl of Arizona - safe GOP
Richard Lugar of Indiana - safe GOP
Roger Wicker of Mississippi - Safe GOP
Bob Corker of Tennessee - Safe GOP
Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas - Safe Gop
Orrin Hatch of Utah - safe GOP
John Barrasso of Wyoming - safe GOP
Olympia Snowe of Maine - Safe
John Ensign of Nevada - safe
Scott Brown of Massachusetts - In trouble
Wondering why you think Manchin is in trouble. Also, I have a feeling Kohl will retire. He’s in his mid 70s I think.
Still cant convince myself that Webb will run again. I just dont think he likes the job all that much. Cant say that I blame him; all that hot air gets tiring.
Richard Lugar of Indiana is NOT safe, he is a RINO!
We have to defend three seats (NV, ME, MA).
In MA, dems won every seat this year, I doubt Scott can survive there. Ensign in NV with her cheating and possible tax fraud scandal is gone too in 2012. If GOP managed to lose in Nevada against Reid this year, Ensign or new GOP nominee is having a real fight in 2012. This is a 50-50 fight.
ME is in play if some local version of O’Donnell is nominated.
So, 3 GOP seats are in grave danger.
On the plus side, if there is a strong GOP candidate in NY,NJ,WI,NM I think those seats are in play. Especially Menendez is widely despised and with a GOP year, there is a decent chance of GOP win.
My prediction is that we lose 2 out of 3 GOP seats (MA, ME, NV), but win FL, MO, ND, OH, MI, NE, NJ,NM,WI.
That would be a net gain of 7 and little room for mistakes.
Gillibrand is definitely vulnerable in 2012. She’s nothing more than a sock puppet for Schumer. Problem is a solid candidate to unseat her. Someone who is going to go brass knuckles politics.
How do you figure Joe Manchin in WV is in trouble? The WV people just proved that outside of Presidential politics they can’t stand the thought of having anyone in office but a friggin’ Democrat.
I lost a lot of respect for West Virginia. I truly thought they had more snap than they demonstrated in this last election.
Olympia Snowe of Maine - should be a GONER!!
Absolutely a safe GOP seat but not necessarily for the person currently holding it!
In fact, I would venture a guess that KBH will NOT return to the Senate in 2013 under any condition.
Good list. My only disagreement is that Feinstein is very safe in California.
I’m not quibbling, but DiFi in CA is “safe”...much safer than Boxer.
Mostly agree. Feinstein is safe. Whitman and Fiorina dumped a ton of $ into Cali. Forget Cali-it’s dead. Bingaman in New Mexico is doable. I see + 7 or 8.
Yet Casey was all in for 0 by the next year, and he didn't hesitate to vote for Deathcare - so his "pro-life" bona fides are all but gone.
Hopefully, '12 won't be as favorable for the Democrats in general, and he won't stroke as many consciences as a "pro-life" candidate this time around.
Depending on who we run, I'd call this one "in play"
The class of 2012 and the class of 2014 were elected in Democrat wave years, and there are quite a few Democrats who won narrowly in their elections like Jon Tester and Jim Webb. Yes, we should be able to pick up quite a few seats in normally Republican leaning states.
Brown of Massachusetts is toast, but that is OK - he served his purpose of ending the filibuster safe majority this year and reducing the Dem majority for the upcoming two years.
I like your categories.
I think a possible 10th could come from one of the Rust Belt/Midwest seats that went Rep this year like PA, Mi, Mn, or Wi.
I think we could lose Brown and Snowe and still get a net gain of 10. However, that is based on the country right now. We have to keep it up, but it is possible.
Gillibrand could be trouble if Rudy decides to run.
It would be wonderful if we could get rid of her but I don't see it. JMO