Posted on 11/04/2010 5:54:24 AM PDT by markomalley
For the first time in two cycles, Democrats will have more seats up for grabs than the Republicans, and the party could see its shrunken majority erased altogether.
Several of the senators up for reelection came in on the 2006 Democratic wave, when the party picked up six GOP seats and won control of the chamber.
Sens. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Jim Webb (D-Va.) defeated GOP incumbents that year but will have to win reelection in 2012.
And two senators who won special elections Tuesday, Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.), will face voters again in two years.
Democrats lost at least six Senate seats Tuesday, with results in Washington and Alaska undetermined as of press time, but they retained control.
That could change in two years, when Democrats have 21 seats up for grabs, compared to only 10 for Republicans. Also up for reelection are Sens. Joe Lieberman (Conn.) and Bernie Sanders (Vt.), the two Independents who caucus with Democrats — meaning the party has a total of 23 seats to defend.
“The numbers are really working against them, no question about it,” said Jennifer Duffy, a senior Senate analyst at The Cook Political Report. “It will come down to what it always comes down to: retirements and recruiting.”
Many of those Democratic seats up next cycle are in purple or red states, including those of McCaskill, Manchin, Tester, Webb and Sens. Kent Conrad (N.D.), Ben Nelson (Neb.) and Bill Nelson (Fla.).
Webb saw several House Democrats in his state lose reelection Tuesday, and McCaskill saw her party lose a Senate pickup opportunity when Roy Blunt (R) won retiring Sen. Kit Bond’s (R-Mo.) seat.
Some senators could opt to retire in 2012. Among those observers will be watching are Ben Nelson and Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.).Nelson is expected to face a difficult race, and Kohl saw his home-state colleague, Sen. Russ Feingold (D), lose on Tuesday.
Casey and Conrad also saw Democratic colleagues lose in their home states on Tuesday. And Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who’s up in 2012, watched fellow California Democrat Barbara Boxer fend off a tough challenge from the GOP.
“It is certainly true that the landscape will be tilted in 2012 in terms of the seats at risk,” said Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report. “[Democrats] will be defending more seats, so they could have more losses. On the other hand, it depends on the mood of the public.”
The other Democratic incumbents up next cycle are Daniel Akaka (Hawaii), Tom Carper (Del.), Jeff Bingaman (N.M.), Maria Cantwell (Wash.), Ben Cardin (Md.), Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), Robert Menendez (N.J.) and Debbie Stabenow (Mich.).
The 10 GOP senators facing reelection are John Barrasso (Wyo.), Scott Brown (Mass.), Bob Corker (Tenn.), John Ensign (Nev.), Orrin Hatch (Utah), Kay Bailey Hutchison (Texas), Jon Kyl (Ariz.), Richard Lugar (Ind.), Olympia Snowe (Maine) and Roger Wicker (Miss.).
Of that list, the only senator who could be considered in a “dangerous” position is Brown, who represents Massachusetts, a blue state.
Hutchison could retire. She ran for Texas governor in 2010 but lost in the GOP primary. At the time, Hutchison hinted she could resign her seat; she never committed to running again in 2012.
Ensign could leave the Senate if he faces charges stemming from the fallout of an affair he had with a former staffer.
An unknown factor for the Republicans is the Tea Party. The grassroots movement took down several party favorites in GOP primaries this year and has threatened to do the same next cycle.
Already, Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), a Tea Party favorite, has said he’d consider challenging Hatch in the 2012 GOP primary.
Additionally, Republicans could always be doomed on pocketbook issues. If the economy rebounds, President Obama could be credited in the eyes of some voters. If it stays sluggish, voters could blame the GOP.
The top three Senate Democrats launched a strategy on that front on Wednesday, putting Republicans on notice that they expected cooperation now that the minority party is more powerful.
“We have made the message very clear that we want to work with Republicans,” said Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). “If they’re unwilling to work with us, there’s not a thing we can do about that, but the American people can see that like a very slow curveball.”
Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University, notes that the Republican revolution of 1994, ushered in by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), dealt a major blow to President Clinton — though Clinton won reelection in 1996.
“My thesis is, we’re going to have a miserable two years, but this time not all the blame will go to the president,” Gans said. “Nobody knows what the climate will be in 2012.”
Rothenberg agreed, saying much depends on the messaging and issues that will dominate the political landscape over the next two years.
“There’s probably not likely to be as stark of a choice in 2012 as this year — however, it’s also true that most people think the president’s party runs things. It’s not as easy for Democrats to just say, ‘They share responsibility, too.’ ”
Brown and McKaskill should be easy pick ups.
I worry that we’ve created gridlock, which is good, but people don’t realize that we can’t do much except throw a wrench in the gears of the dem machine. In other words, I hope the tide doesn’t shift again in 2012. By then Obama could start getting credit for any gains the economy makes, and if he and other dems run on that, they might buy it again. Americans have short memories.
>> “Nobody knows what the climate will be in 2012.”
Listen to Glenn Beck!! He knows!!!!
People need to be reminded about 2006-2008 that Pelosi & Reid were already the leaders of the Congress.
I don’t think we’ll ever get rid of Barney!
Hopefully they will feel the pressure when Congress repeals “obamacare” and extends the Bush Tax cuts...
What a bitter old bastard, whining about Republican campaigns and the Herald. He's so damned self-righteous.
It'll be fun to hear him be miserable for two years.
I cant wait! Fight on!!!!!!
Because we won on Tuesday, felons won’t be voting in 2012. That’s a right big wrench in their gears!
McCaskill was just on Fox and Friends being interviewed about Ike Skelton losing. She started whining about people already focusing on 2012. She was very snippy about it. Bwahahaha, Claire—2012 will be here before you know it, and then it’s your turn!
Solid shots: MO, ND, FL, NE, MT, PA
Possible (depending on candidate): WV, MI, MN, NM, WI
No shot (cesspools): HI, MD, DE, CA, NJ, WA
On the GOP side, Scott Brown is the only unsure seat.
I don’t care who gets the credit. Its in the Democrats interest to fix the economy. But if they don’t cooperate, they will lose in 2012. Dingy Harry has it exactly backwards. The only question left is whether the Democrats want to maintain the policies that wiped them out this year.
Scott Brown got elected in a “wave year.” Personally, I think he’s good as as gone if the Democrats run a strong candidate against him.
What happens to Lieberman?
Is he seeking another term?
If he is, he is not likely to win again as an independent.
He can’t win a Democrat primary.
If Lieberman wants any chance for another term, he has to switch and run as a Republican.
And probably lose anyway.
Lieberman will either retire or he will lose. The Democrats don’t want him. His seat is a likely Dem pickup.
Excellent analysis. I think the best plan for the next two years is for the Republican House to start bringing up bills for a full vote, and force the Democrats to vote against commons sense solutions time and time again. Force the (P)resident to veto legislation over and over and over again.
Yes, it results in gridlock which may or may not be a good thing, depending on how things go for the next two years. But by the time 2012 gets here the Democrats could be shown to be the obstructionists and lead to even more house cleaning.
I also expect a lot of Senators and long term Representatives to retire rather than fight another long nasty campaign. I think you’ll start hearing those announcements as we get into next year and the filing deadlines for various states.
The bottom line here is that now is the time to start identifying those local candidates to challenge these Democrats. Senate races take time and money, so Tea Party activists should start identifying conservative candidates that they can support right now. Save the money you normally contribute to the National parties, and get it directly into the hands of the local candidates you support.
Alternatively he says :
Additionally, Republicans could always be doomed on pocketbook issues. If the economy rebounds, President Obama could be credited in the eyes of some voters. If it stays sluggish, voters could blame the GOP. The top three Senate Democrats launched a strategy on that front on Wednesday, putting Republicans on notice that they expected cooperation now that the minority party is more powerful.
“We have made the message very clear that we want to work with Republicans,” said Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). “If they’re unwilling to work with us, there’s not a thing we can do about that, but the American people can see that like a very slow curveball.”
Unlike 2006 and 2008 elections which were hopeless I think Republicans have a great shot at crushing Democrats again in 2012. I hope so, watching four years of Republican decline (2005-2008) was painful. Right now Republicans are in a pretty good position to make Democrats pay for anything they want passed, 'pay' meaning make them pass and Obama sign stuff we want. And force them to vote on stuff unpopular with liberal base. Already Maddow Schultz and Olbermann and complaining about Obama and Reid saying they want to work with Republicans.
Wouldn’t put NJ in the same class as those others. By the way, what about the other 5 seats?
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