Skip to comments.Early Voting Numbers in California: Close Races Ahead?
Posted on 10/31/2010 9:34:24 AM PDT by Qbert
If early voting is an indication of how Tuesday's midterm elections will go--and it's debatable whether, and how, it can--early vote-by mail turnout in California predicts close races for Senate and governor.
Here's a breakdown of who has voted already through the state's vote-by-mail program, provided to The Atlantic by a source close to the California Republican Party. By party registration, here's a who has mailed a ballot so far:
Total Returns: 2,456,455
Dem: 1,056,498 (43.0%)
Rep: 959,617 (39.1%)
Decline to State: 350,337 (14.3%)
The California Secretary of State's office could not be reached for comment to confirm or deny the accuracy of these numbers.
You'll notice that Democrats hold a four-percentage-point lead over Republicans in early vote-by-mail turnout. Good news for Democrats.
But here's why this is actually good for Republicans, portending close races in both the Senate contest between former HP CEO Carly Fiorina and Sen. Barbara Boxer and the governor's race between former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and Attorney General Jerry Brown: You've got to assume that Republicans will win a majority of Independent voters this year.
The latest polling from CNN/Time finds Fiorina with a 49 - 41 percent advantage over Boxer among independents, while Whitman enjoys a 48 - 45 percent advantage over Brown. With 14.3 percent of early mail-in voters registered as independent, it's likely these contests are within narrow margins among these already-received ballots.
(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...
Most of the independents are historically Democratic-leaning. That’s why Democrats have won nearly all statewide races since the 1990s in California.
The voter spread in California is over 10% Dem to Rep, so this could be good news. Dems who are fed up but haven’t re-registered could easily be 4%
Simply getting a mail-in ballot from a Democrat doesn’t necessarily indicate he actually voted for Democrats! Many of ‘em may have actually woken up to reality;)
I’ve already filled out my mail-in ballot but I don’t trust the postal service employees so I will be walking the ballot in to my polling place on Tuesday. Call me paranoid but I don’t put it past postal service employees to open mailed-in ballots and discard the ones that vote for the wrong people.
No you don't, unless you want to be wrong. This is California, not a swing state like Ohio or Pennsylvania. Independent CA voters might break for Meg & Carly, but the probability of that falls far short of "you've GOT to assume".
In the majority of cases, an "independent" voter is just one who's too self-delusional or gutless to admit that they really are a Democrat/liberal. Yes, there are some solid conservatives out there who don't want the "R" label (but still vote that way when push comes to shove) and call themselves independent, but that's the much less common case.
We're in Florida right now, so I mailed our ballots back to the Registrar's physical office - not to the PO Box on the ballot envelope - in a Priority Envelope with signature required. I figured that would frustrate any curious postal workers. It was worth the $5+. Our daughter, who normally votes by mail within Calif, decided to take hers to the poll tomorrow, instead of "trusting" the postal service.
What a sad time.
CA independents differ from those elsewhere. Many of the decline to states are liberal voters who don’t want to be Democrats but who nevertheless end up voting for them.
“Most of the independents are historically Democratic-leaning.”
Schwarzenegger must have pulled in his fair share of Independents to have won in recent times. And he- putting aside hindsight of how he governed in reality- ran as right-leaning candidate.
And plus, the unemployment situation is so bleak in California- I would hope Independents would be willing to roll the dice for something new in the Senate.
We won’t know who will win until some time Wednesday when they fish the last ballots out of The Bay.
California is always going to be tough state for the GOP to compete in due to the Democrat registration advantage and large minority populations. Meg Whitman putting significant resources into her GOTV effort (estimated at $15-18 million with 20,000 volunteers), which should help the party’s overall outlook even if Whitman herself doesn’t win. Fiorina will definitely benefit but I still don’t know if it will be enough to take out Boxer. There are a few House seats in play as well, but I’m much more pessimistic about California than I was even a few weeks ago.
Sounds like wishful thinking . Which is sort of like assuming . I’m impressed with your insight . Do you have any stock tips ? I’ll settle for football results .
Off at a meeting with Soros, guaranteed.
California will more likely break Republican if the national races to the east do; a “Republican wave” will sweep East to West as the polls close.
Fiorina should win no matter the size of the wave; Whitman should win only because she’s running against Moonbeam Brown.
I do have a worrying about this....While most the splits 50-50 between early vote and on day vote, but L.A country is 25-75 split between early and on day voting, so that should skrewed it and pad the dems a couple points more over republicans.