Most of the independents are historically Democratic-leaning. That’s why Democrats have won nearly all statewide races since the 1990s in California.
The voter spread in California is over 10% Dem to Rep, so this could be good news. Dems who are fed up but haven’t re-registered could easily be 4%
Simply getting a mail-in ballot from a Democrat doesn’t necessarily indicate he actually voted for Democrats! Many of ‘em may have actually woken up to reality;)
I’ve already filled out my mail-in ballot but I don’t trust the postal service employees so I will be walking the ballot in to my polling place on Tuesday. Call me paranoid but I don’t put it past postal service employees to open mailed-in ballots and discard the ones that vote for the wrong people.
No you don't, unless you want to be wrong. This is California, not a swing state like Ohio or Pennsylvania. Independent CA voters might break for Meg & Carly, but the probability of that falls far short of "you've GOT to assume".
In the majority of cases, an "independent" voter is just one who's too self-delusional or gutless to admit that they really are a Democrat/liberal. Yes, there are some solid conservatives out there who don't want the "R" label (but still vote that way when push comes to shove) and call themselves independent, but that's the much less common case.
We won’t know who will win until some time Wednesday when they fish the last ballots out of The Bay.
California is always going to be tough state for the GOP to compete in due to the Democrat registration advantage and large minority populations. Meg Whitman putting significant resources into her GOTV effort (estimated at $15-18 million with 20,000 volunteers), which should help the party’s overall outlook even if Whitman herself doesn’t win. Fiorina will definitely benefit but I still don’t know if it will be enough to take out Boxer. There are a few House seats in play as well, but I’m much more pessimistic about California than I was even a few weeks ago.
Off at a meeting with Soros, guaranteed.
California will more likely break Republican if the national races to the east do; a “Republican wave” will sweep East to West as the polls close.
Fiorina should win no matter the size of the wave; Whitman should win only because she’s running against Moonbeam Brown.