Dayton holds small lead in Minnesota

Mark Dayton is the slight favorite heading into the final three days of the Minnesota Governor's race but Tom Emmer's close enough that he could still come from behind to win...

PPP puts Democrat Mark Dayton 3 points ahead of Republican and Tea Party candidate Tom Emmer, 43 to 40, with independent Tom Horner pulling 15.

This race is simply too close to call given the three-way dynamic.

To comment on the 3 point difference, their internals give a 5 point advantage to the Democrats. In 2008 - a banner year for the Democrats - they only had a 3 point advantage (according to that year's exit poll). I figure the difference in party affiliation has moved against the Democrats since 2008. Therefore, the real difference - right now - between Dayton and Emmer is probably zero rather than 3.

Now, as to the 3-way dynamic, Sometimes it's clear which way things will break when there are 3 and more strong candidates going into the last few days of an election. For example, in Colorado, the numbers have been breaking hard for Tancredo; and, in Alaska, for Murkowski. In both cases, it's because people are shifting from their original candidate to the more preferred candidate of those who have a realistic chance of winning.

(In contrast, in Florida, Charlie Crist shot himself in the foot by saying he would caucus with the Democrats, which caused many moderate Republicans to shift to Marco Rubio, putting Rubio over 50 percent and making the split of the non-Rubio vote to be academic. Crist should have followed the lead of Joe Leiberman in Connecticut, stating he would caucus with the majority party of his state, and win by combining the moderates of the majority party with cross-over votes from the other party. But, I digress.)

With regard to Minnesota, independent candidate Tom Horner is somewhat "in between" the Republican and the Democrat, making the three way dynamic difficult to prognosticate. There are some hints, however, that there enough people will shift from Tom Horner to Tom Emmer to enable Emmer to win.

Here is one of the "hints." Minnesota is not an early voting state. Nevertheless, 9 percent have already voted. In contrast to other states, those who have already voted indicated that they have favored the Democrat, not the Republican. Why is this? I conjecture it's because many people are holding back casting their vote until they find out who, between the two Toms, is the real alternative to Dayton.

Dayton would be a disaster as Minnesota governor and even many Democrats might vote for the independent candidate rather than Dayton. Unfortunately Minnesota has enclaves of rabid blue collar largely union Democrats who have been whipped to a frenzy by Dayton's tax the rich class warfare and who will turn out to show the rich what for.

If elected Dayton will raise Minnesota taxes to even higher levels and will start an exodus of businesses and individuals from the state. His millionaires tax will fall heavily on members of the Minnesota Vikings and Twins sports teams and could cause perhaps the Vikings to leave the state. My bet is after two years of Dayton Minnesotans will be so fed up one might start seeing billboards picturing Jesse Ventura captioned "Miss me yet?"

Pawlenty’s polling numbers are only understandable in view of the perspective of what has been happening in Minnesota. Currently we have a legistlature that is so unbalanced as to have the DFLers (Democrats) holding about a 63% to 37% advantage. That means that for about 4 years now the liberals have been putting out one bill after another that raises taxes &/or adds to the state budget deficit. When Pawlenty vetoes it, they rant and rave about how obstuctive he has been. Gradually his popularity has gone downhill, similar to GWB! Relentless attacks that the news media repeats ad nauseum does do a job on popularity!

Both of Tim’s election races for governor were won by about 44% of the total vote, hence he was never a majority candidate. We have a somewhat strong and persistent Independant Party here in MN. They are usually social liberals and fiscal conservatives. This year’s IP candidate, Tom Horner, is a bit more liberal than usual on fiscal mattrers as he insists he wants to raise taxes on the richest Minnesotans as well as cut expenses. That puts him in league with Dayton who also wants to “punish the rich”, thinking that will helt to balance the budget.

I hope the writer is correct, and the last minute deciders go to Emmer. It will be a disaster if we get Dayton for Governor.

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