Posted on 09/15/2010 6:39:31 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Few icons of the American way of life have suffered more in recent years than homeownership. Since the bursting of the housing bubble, there has been a steady drumbeat from the factories of futurist punditry that the notion of owning a home will, and, more importantly, should become out of reach for most Americans.
Before jumping on this bandwagon, perhaps we would do well to understand the role that homeownership and the diffusion of property plays in a democracy. From Madison and Jefferson through Lincoln’s Homestead Act, the most enduring and radical notion of American political economy has been the diffusion of property.
Like small farmers in the 19th century, homeowners–and equally important, aspiring homeowners–now represent the core of our economy without which a strong recovery is likely impossible Houses remain as a financial bulwark for a large percentage of families, the anchor of communities, and, increasingly, home-based businesses.
The reasons given for abandoning the homeownership ideal are diverse. Conservatives rightfully look to diminish the outsized role of government in promoting homeownership. Some suggest that Americans would be better off putting their money into things like the stock market or boosting consumer purchases.
New-urbanist intellectuals like the University of Utah’s Chris Nelson predict aging demographics will lead masses to abandon their homes for retiree communities and nursing homes. The respected futurist Paul Saffo predicts that as skilled laborers move from Singapore to San Francisco to New York and London, there is little need to “own” a permanent place. In the brave new future, he suggests, we will prefer time-sharing residences as we flit from job to job across the global economy.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.forbes.com ...
Housing, banking, insurance and the mortgage industries all will make huge comebacks provided the government gets out and stays out of these various entities except in its oversight capacity. Let the free markets and capitalism do the jobs they are meant to do: namely create jobs, promote job growth, promote research and development, peomote entrepreneurship and build back the manufacturing base in this country by being competitive with the rest of the world. That also includes across the board tax cuts for both businesses and individuals and tax incentives for small businesses as opposed to government handouts, bailouts and subsidies.
Become more like Socialist Europe where almost everyone is a ‘renter’. The ruling elite own the land and as a result the people that live on it. Tenant ‘farming’ is not restricted to the countryside.
Author’s reasons for believing why housing will bounce back big time (IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO DEMOGRAPHICS AND SUPPLY vs DEMAND) :
* Continued public preference for single-family homes, suburbs and the notion of owning a “piece” of the American dream. Four out of every five homes built in America over the past few decades, have less to do with government policy than “with buyers’ preferences, that is, What People Want.”
* What we are going through now is not a sea change but a correction from insane government and business practices. Home values need to readjust historic balance between incomes and prices AND IT IS ALREADY HAPPENING. Sooner than later, things will stabilize.
* THE AFFORDABILITY NUMBERS ARE TELLING US SOMETHING.
The affordability number for Los Angeles is now 34%, 17 times better than two years ago, while Riverside is now near 70%. Miami’s affordability picture has improved to over 60% while in Las Vegas, it’s back over 80%.
These lower prices–not Wall Street or federal gimmickry–will lure new buyers to the places that some new urbanists have predicted will be “the next slums.” Already there’s evidence in places like Miami of a renewed interest in now-affordable suburban single-family homes while condos stay empty or become rentals.
* Oer the long run, Americans will seek to purchase homes –whatever the geography. Increasingly this will be less a casino gamble, and more a long-term lifestyle choice. As America adds upwards of 100 million more Americans by 2050, the demand will stare us in the face.
* Two big groups that will drive housing will be the young Millenial generation born after 1983 as well as immigrants and their offspring. Sixty million strong, the millenials are just now entering their late 20s. They are just beginning to start hunting for houses and places to establish roots.
* Contrary to the anonymity predicted by most futurists, your chosen place is becoming more important, as evidenced by numerous suburban and small town downtown revivals as well as growing local volunteerism. With the rise of new technologies allowing for dispersed work, the single family home increasingly houses not only residents, but part and full-time offices.
THIS IS WITH SOME CAVEATS -—
* The government does not socialize housing the way it is trying to for healthcare.
* The government does not succumb to ectreme environmentalism which will curb single-family home construction in favor of denser neighborhoods.
* We don’t have a long-term permanent recession.
Watch this guy’s Kudlow interview and look at this “Headwinds” presentation.
http://mason.gmu.edu/~asander7/
Everyone seems to be wondering how this chapter will close.
We have a president that hates small business, hates success, hates prosperity, hates America, but loves islam and minorities and tin-pot dictators. If he is not politically neutralized and sent packing, this country has a very bleak future.
As far as the eye can see, the future doesn't look good...and that is not something people can justify investing in.
Furthermore, there is a systemic problem in America. Even after Obama is gone (if he is ever gone), the people who elected him and his crowd of liars and know-nothings are still at large.
And in addition to the insane Liberals, there is Islam's war on the West. A war in which the enemy hasn't even been correctly defined and given a name.
“Lower Prices mean Affordability, which will lure buyers”
Who will get burned as their property continues to decline in value...assuming they can make the mortgage payments in the first place.
In 1977, during the Carter disaster, my unemployment based on active duty in the military was $95 per week. Today, 33 years later, it’s $198 per week based on my employment with the Census. (Yes, all your personal information are belong to us. Or, rather, to them.)
Prices, meanwhile, have gone up from 500% to 1,000% or more over that same period. If this is indicative of a general trend, inflation is obscuring a significant loss in the real purchasing power of middle-class wages.
I’ll go out on a limb: This ain’t the bottom. Not even close. (Please, God, let me be wrong.)
“Too bad no economist ever created a supply-demand-price curve showing the relationship of demand to price...”
Wait a minute. I thought prices were determined by the greed of the rich.
I hope so. I was recently denied a refi because my house appraisal came in so low. And I have a credit rating over 800 and have NEVER missed a payment.
Respected by who?
He's a moron.
There's an instinctive urge, as old as time, among all sentient beings, to be able to say "This land is mine, this land belongs to me".
“Too bad no economist ever created a supply-demand-price curve showing the relationship of demand to price...”
They have, but most are hard left, pro affordable housing zealots.
I really want to believe housing will rebound, hopefully soon. I see a few problems with this. There is no doubt we have an oversupply of housing, we also have a huge number of under-water mortgages and to top it all off, about the time housing really statrts to recover, all us baby boomers will be dying off, moving into old folk homes and dumping our homes into an already saturated housing market.
I really wish someone could set me straight on this and tell me how these issues will be overcome. I need some good news here.
You are exactly right. One other little problem (sarc) , there isn’t financing available to most borrowers. With current circumstances, will the housing market make a comeback? Yes, just as soon as people can afford to buy their homes with cash.
No, the enemy has been defined and given a name; we just have a government which refuses to admit it.
The enemy has been defined and given a name by only a small segment of Americans. I was surprised to learn in the recent discussions on FR of the Koran burning incident how many conservatives still don’t understand the nature of this enemy.
When the dull knife shows up at their throat they’ll understand it very well.
For all the good it will do them.
Where I live, housing developments went up in the outskirts where previously no one would have dreamed of living. Those locations stunk before and they stink now, no matter how nice the houses are. Those are the places that are going to get hurt. Look at where you live and figure out whether a growing family would be attracted to it: proximity to thriving urban areas (jobs, restaurants, entertainment) near airports, school district quality, weather, etc.... Nevada is still a desert; Florida is hot and muggy with nothing to do.
For this reason I believe, once the public becomes aware of the servicers’ intentional abuses that will be revealed from these lawsuits, more potential homeowners will elect to postpone purchases until servicers like BAC get their acts together and quit using the programs to screw their customers.
From what I'm seeing from BAC Home Loans Servicing, LLP., I would NEVER seek for myself nor refer anyone to them for a mortgage because of their incompetency, their eagerness to lie, their intentional contract violations, and the attitudes of some - not all - of their representatives.
For the life of me, I don't understand why the GOP doesn't make an issue of the abuse schemes incited by the Obama Regime's TARP and HAMP programs and politically beat the crap out of the Democrats for facilitating the mortgage servicers’ abuse of those whom the economy has forced from their jobs and those whose incomes have been diminished because of the economic downturn who now are struggling to survive.
Yea folks just can’t wait to go into massive debt while the jobs market is so good..../s
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.