Posted on 09/05/2010 9:49:59 AM PDT by Loyal Buckeye
Republican candidates have grabbed double-digit leads in the races for governor and the U.S. Senate, and the swelling red tide could lead to a GOP sweep of statewide offices, the first Dispatch Poll of the 2010 campaign shows.
With voter enthusiasm running nearly three times higher among Republicans than Democrats, GOP gubernatorial candidate John Kasich leads by 12 points over Gov. Ted Strickland while GOP Senate hopeful Rob Portman tops Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher by 13 points.
"I am enthusiastic about the upcoming election because it will kick out many of the incumbents," said survey participant Aivars Vimba, 70, a retired technician from suburban Cincinnati and a Republican. "My wife, who hasn't voted in years, will vote this time."
At the other end of the state, Edward Obloy, a 62-year-old lawyer and management consultant from Toledo, said, "This is probably the single most important election in my lifetime. If the country delivers control to the Democrats again, no governor on (President Barack) Obama's accelerator will be in place and as a consequence we'll be unable to reverse course before he leaves office."
Strickland's camp conceded weeks ago that he would probably lose if Ohio still had only limited early voting. But with any eligible voter now able to get an absentee ballot, Democrats have more than 30 days starting late this month to get their less-than-enthused base out.
Early voting could be enhanced in Democrat-rich large counties because local officials mailed applications for absentee ballots to all voters and are paying the return postage, a factor that brought a GOP federal lawsuit last week.
In theory, the political dynamics also could be transformed by the two debates between Kasich and Strickland - the first is next week - and the three matchups between Portman and Fisher.
Republican candidates lead for all down-ticket statewide offices on the Nov.2 ballot: former U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine for attorney general, Delaware County Prosecutor Dave Yost for auditor, state Sen. Jon Husted for secretary of state, state Rep. Josh Mandel for treasurer, Justice Maureen O'Connor for chief justice and Justice Judith Ann Lanzinger for re-election.
The mail survey of 1,622 randomly chosen registered Ohio voters from Aug. 25 through Friday has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
Thus when the error margin and undecided voters are taken into account, the only race that currently appears out of reach for the Democrats is chief justice, where O'Connor has a huge lead over current Chief Justice Eric Brown, appointed by Strickland last spring. No minor-party candidate got more than 6 points for any office.
Of course, polls taken before Labor Day, particularly for lower-profile races, can change dramatically, especially once TV ads hit the airwaves. That might auger well for such big-bankroll candidates as Husted and Democrat David Pepper in the auditor's race.
Because the campaigns for everything except governor and U.S. Senate likely have been all-but-invisible to most Ohio voters, it's presumably the Republican label that is carrying the day for now.
The supporters of every statewide GOP candidate are two to three times as likely as those who are backing the Democratic candidate to say they are more enthused than usual for this year's election.
However, that Republican advantage all but disappears in the matchup for justice and actually is reversed for chief justice; judicial candidates don't carry a party designation on the general election ballot.
The party label is key to respondent David Murray, 54, a telecommunication technician and union member from Dayton, who is voting a straight Republican ticket.
"Regretfully, this current crop of Democrats has repeatedly proven themselves, almost without exception, untrustworthy of the power associated with their offices," he said.
If Republicans end up winning all the statewide contests, it would match the GOP "three-peat sweep" of 1994, 1998 and 2002 and return Ohio to the all-Republican rule that the state experienced from 1995 through 2006. Just four years ago, Democrats won every statewide nonjudicial race except auditor.
Such an outcome also would give the GOP control again of the state Apportionment Board, which redraws legislative districts, and thus an upper hand in General Assembly races for the next decade.
If Ohioans' sentiments favoring Republicans extend to legislative and congressional races, that could mean the GOP will retake control of the Ohio House and vulnerable first-term Democratic members of Congress such as Mary Jo Kilroy of Columbus will be knocked out of office.
Strickland won by more than 20 points over Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell four years ago, but less than two-thirds of those who say they voted for the Democrat in 2006 are backing him now.
"(Former Gov. Bob) Taft was a disaster, and I wasn't happy with the way things were going under the Republicans so I voted Democratic rather than for Strickland," said one of those switching sides, Ralph Holter, 68, a retired sales representative from suburban Cleveland.
"I'm not thrilled with him either. I liked what I heard about Kasich when he was in Congress."
Strickland is certainly not without defenders.
"I chose Gov. Strickland because he has not had enough time to accomplish his goals because the national economy has been in the tank for so long. I like his plans and hope he gets four more years to implement them," said Frank Ottena, 80, a retiree from North Canton.
John McMaken, 51, a pharmacist from Mason, said, "I would be considered a Republican but am going to vote for Strickland because he has done a good, nonpartisan job, especially considering the economic climate."
But McMaken returns to his GOP roots for the Senate race because he lives in Portman's former congressional district and "he did a good job."
Dennis Stieber, 50, a deputy auditor from Norwalk, is voting for Fisher, who also was the state's development director.
"Lee Fisher was a true fighter for us here in Norwalk when our Norwalk Furniture plant closed. He came here personally to broker a deal with other investors to help keep the company in some type of solvency with new management. He kept jobs here."
Old saying,
“As goes Ohio, so goes the nation”.
Here’s hoping.
The dems have made a wasteland of Ohio just like they did with Michigan.
Illinois has been corrupt for decades.
Pennsylvania is their next target because of the dem preoccupation with green jobs and anti coal.
GOP needs to be RESTRUCTURED not RESURGENT.
Why will the results be different this time if they aren’t?
Early voting could be enhanced in Democrat-rich large counties because local officials mailed applications for absentee ballots to all voters and are paying the return postage, a factor that brought a GOP federal lawsuit last week.
Candidates have “floated” their ideas and put it out on websites but haven't written op-eds in local papers or really stood up.
On good example is Chabot. I like Steve, and of course will vote for him, but his his message is very esoteric, basically JOBS JOBS JOBS and stop Pelosi. I like to see something akin to the contract with America. Gimme Flat Tax, Repeal the stupid healthcare law, and stop government regulation, and do something like build nuclear plants instead of cars.
“Gimme Flat Tax, Repeal the stupid healthcare law, and stop government regulation, and do something like build nuclear plants instead of cars.”
Cripes. Why aren’t YOU running? My dream agenda. I’d love to see us bury these idiots in a Conservative, common sense blitz between now and voting day.
By the way, I hope the Flat Tax gets a decent hearing some day. Everybody with the same amount of skin in the game would be a huge boost to national and personal pride and put the us back in US ... My 15% is absolutely equal to anyone else’s ... and the redistributionists and elitists could then STFU about parity.
I caught it;of course Democrats cheat.They can’t win a fair fight.Lying and cheating are second nature to them.
Pleasantly surprised to see Kasich with such a strong lead on Strickland. I figured Stickland would be tough to get out of there and that it would be a much closer battle.
“As goes Ohio, so goes the nation”.
I thought that was Missouri but I could be mistaken.
“I like to see something akin to the contract with America.”
Expect one from the GOP in the upcoming week and from what I hear it will strike all the right chords and resonate with the American electorate.
Of course, you should also expect the Dems and their state-run socialist media to criticize the hell out of it.
Hey man,
I’m trying here.
:-)
Besides, me thinks this year may be a little different.
FYI
Ohio Ping
My daughter lives in Louisville. 3 years ago she left Tacoma Park, MD. Lived in CA for a year, now in KY for 2 years. She told me yesterday she received an absentee ballot from Maryland. It was NOT forwarded, it was sent to her at her KY address. I don’t think this is accidental.
It’s practically a guarantee that sending an absentee ballot to any former resident of Montgomery County will go to a lefty. And they are betting that a lot of these former Montgomery County lefties will use the ballot and vote twice. They know we won’t.
She just threw it away.
And will bring back the recycled incumbents.
FORMER U.S. Rep. John Kasich
FORMER U.S. Rep. Rob Portman
FORMER U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine (WTH will vote for him...seriously...WHO?)
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