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I'm posting the "Expert's View" of the Master List today just so everyone could see the huge number of favorable updates. It was a banner week for sure. The trend continues.

District Incumbent Party Average Average Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District
AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up AL 2
AR 1 Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R AR 1
AR 2 Open D Likely R 2.0 Leans R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R AR 2
AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up AZ 1
AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up AZ 5
AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up AZ 8
CA 3 Dan Lungren Incumbent R Leans R 1.3 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Likely R CA 3
CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up CA 11
CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Likely D -2.3 Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D Safe D Likely D CA 47
CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D CO 3
CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Likely R Leans R CO 4
CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Likely D -2.3 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D CT 4
CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Likely D -2.2 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Leans D CT 5
DE AL Open R Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D DE AL
FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up FL 2
FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R FL 8
FL 12 Open R Likely R 2.3 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R FL 12
FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Leans D -1.5 Leans D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Toss-Up FL 22
FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R FL 24
FL 25 Open R Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Weak R Leans R Leans R Likely R FL 25
GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Likely D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up GA 8
HI 1 Charles Djou Incumbent R Toss-Up -0.2 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans D HI 1
IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Leans D Leans D IA 3
ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D ID 1
IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Toss-Up Leans D IL 8
IL 10 Open R Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IL 10
IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans D Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R IL 11
IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IL 14
IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Leans D Mod D Leans D Leans D Leans D IN 2
IN 8 Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R IN 8
IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up IN 9
KS 3 Open D Leans R 0.8 Toss-Up Leans R Weak R Leans R Leans R Leans R KS 3
KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Leans D Mod D Leans D Leans D Leans D 6 0
LA 2 Joseph Cao Incumbent R Leans D -1.3 Leans D Likely D Weak D Toss-Up Likely D Likely D LA 2
LA 3 Open D Likely R 2.2 Leans R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R LA 3
MA 10 Open D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak R Leans D Likely D Toss-Up MA 10
MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R MD 1
MI 1 Open D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MI 1
MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R MI 7
MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Leans D Likely D Mod D Likely D Safe D Leans D MI 9
MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Likely D -2.3 Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D MN 1
MN 6 Michele Bachmann Incumbent R Likely R 2.3 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R MN 6
MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up MO 4
MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R MS 1
NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Likely D Leans R NC 8
ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R ND AL
NE 2 Lee Terry Incumbent R Likely R 2.0 Likely R Likely R Mod R Likely R Likely R Likely R NE 2
NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NH 1
NH 2 Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NH 2
NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D NJ 3
NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up NM 1
NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R NM 2
NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NV 3
NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up NY 1
NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Leans D -1.5 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NY 13
NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 19
NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NY 20
NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NY 23
NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 24
NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Likely D -2.2 Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D NY 25
NY 29 Open D Likely R 2.2 Leans R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R NY 29
OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R OH 1
OH 2 Jean Schmidt Incumbent R Safe R 2.8 Safe R Safe R Mod R Safe R Safe R Safe R OH 2
OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up OH 13
OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R OH 15
OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R OH 16
OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up OH 18
OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up OR 5
PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans D PA 3
PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D PA 4
PA 6 Jim Gerlach Incumbent R Likely R 1.8 Likely R Likely R Mod R Likely R Likely R Leans R PA 6
PA 7 Open D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R PA 7
PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Toss-Up Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Likely D Toss-Up PA 8
PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak R Leans D Likely D Toss-Up PA 10
PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R PA 11
PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up PA 12
PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D PA 17
SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.3 Leans D Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up SC 5
SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R SD AL
TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Likely D -1.7 Safe D Leans D Mod D Leans D Likely D Leans D TN 4
TN 6 Open D Likely R 2.2 Leans R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R TN 6
TN 8 Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R TN 8
TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R TX 17
TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up TX 23
VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up VA 2
VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R VA 5
VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up VA 9
VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up VA 11
WA 3 Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Toss-Up Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R WA 3
WA 8 Dave Reichert Incumbent R Leans R 1.3 Leans R Leans R Mod R Likely R Leans R Leans R WA 8
WI 7 Open D Toss-Up 0.3 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R WI 7
WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up WI 8
WV 1 Open D Toss-Up -0.2 Toss-Up Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up WV 1
District Average Average Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District
Average Toss-Up -0.177 Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Average
Updated 28-Aug-10 -0.446 -0.380 0.109 -0.250 -0.391 0.293 Updated
Rating and Color Code Average Expert
Rating
From To
Safe D -3 -2.5
Likely D -2.5 -1.5
Leans D -1.5 -0.5
Toss-Up -0.5 0
Toss-Up 0 0.5
Leans R 0.5 1.5
Likely R 1.5 2.5
Safe R 2.5 3.5

1 posted on 08/28/2010 11:10:20 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: 100%FEDUP; 1010RD; 101voodoo; 1035rep; 1776 Reborn; 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten; 23 Everest; 2A Patriot; ..
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:


2 posted on 08/28/2010 11:15:24 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

John Hall, (NY19) who’s as lefty as they come, came out against the mosque this week....he’s crappin in his pants and the campaign has not even moved into full swing yet...


3 posted on 08/28/2010 11:21:33 AM PDT by God luvs America (When the silent majority speaks the earth trembles!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Dick Morris presaged on FOX this week that the GOP will pick up 80 Seats on November 2nd.

Check out this post re: how the Party Trend has not even set in yet, and that this years mid-terms will be a greater victory for the GOP than we now think.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2579244/posts


8 posted on 08/28/2010 11:40:41 AM PDT by no dems (To Every Democrat in the U.S. House and Senate: "Shame, shame. Shame on all your houses.")
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To: InterceptPoint

Scott Tipton Leads John Salazar in New CO-3 Poll.

The Tipton for Congress campaign today released results of a telephone survey that demonstrates Republican businessman Scott Tipton leads Democrat Congressman John Salazar 49% to 43% in the 3rd Congressional District race.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2576891/posts


9 posted on 08/28/2010 11:42:50 AM PDT by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: InterceptPoint
The only race I am really interested in is watching that nutjob Grayson lose in Florida. Otherwise, I am confident we will take back the Congress.
13 posted on 08/28/2010 12:08:10 PM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: InterceptPoint; randita; onyx; Liz; LS
Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
House
Seats
P10		 GOP
House
Seats
EV		 GOP
House
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 218		 GOP
Gain
09-Apr-10 199 204.77 210 0.18% 25
16-Apr-10 199 205.09 211 0.22% 26
22-Apr-10 200 205.28 211 0.37% 26
01-May-10 201 206.22 212 0.73% 27
08-May-10 201 206.33 212 0.66% 27
19-Jun-10 203 208.44 214 2.29% 29
10-Jul-10 203 208.49 214 2.43% 29
17-Jul-10 203 208.49 214 2.34% 29
24-Jul-10 203 209.25 215 3.37% 30
31-Jul-10 203 209.06 215 2.96% 30
07-Aug-10 203 209.15 215 3.11% 30
14-Aug-10 204 209.33 215 3.33% 30
21-Aug-10 204 209.86 216 4.47% 30
28-Aug-10 205 210.91 217 7.03% 31

Alternatively, below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken. If the trend is moving downward, I suspect it is because a poll expired and the expert asssessment is lagging public opinion.

This week, the polls cover 37% of the 92 races being tracked. 34 polls are being used out of 54 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 63%.

Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
House
Seats
P10		 GOP
House
Seats
EV		 GOP
House
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 218		 GOP
Gain
31-Jul-10 207 212.12 217 8.64% 33
07-Aug-10 206 211.07 216 4.66% 32
14-Aug-10 206 211.04 216 5.02% 32
21-Aug-10 207 211.6 216 6.03% 32
28-Aug-10 211 215.2 220 25.97% 36

And in the Senate...

This week saw the race in California tighten up as Carly Fiorina pulled within one percent of Barbara Boxer, Marco Rubio moved outside the margin of error against Charlie Crist in Florida, and Missouri's Roy Blunt moved outside the margin of error against Robin Carnahan. However, Illinois moved from a tie to favoring Alexi Giannoulias over Mark Kirk.

Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
Senate
Seats
P10		 GOP
Senate
Seats
EV		 GOP
Senate
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 51		 GOP
Gain
17-Jul-10 47 48.84 50 6.95% 7
24-Jul-10 47 48.95 50 7.69% 7
31-Jul-10 47 48.18 50 1.29% 7
07-Aug-10 47 48.13 50 1.46% 7
14-Aug-10 47 48.46 50 2.92% 7
21-Aug-10 47 48.69 50 3.05% 7
28-Aug-10 47 48.86 50 5.88% 7

-PJ

14 posted on 08/28/2010 12:09:07 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Goodbye Pelosi.


16 posted on 08/28/2010 12:15:42 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: InterceptPoint

Republicans will win every one of those races in Pennsylvania. Count on it!


18 posted on 08/28/2010 12:27:46 PM PDT by Dems_R_Losers (U.S. Out of My Doctor's Office!!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Every week your thread is getting better and better. And I think the experts out there are noticing YOU, too.

I’ll bet you’re really enjoying yoursef, too!


23 posted on 08/28/2010 2:45:53 PM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: InterceptPoint

If there is only one seat in play in NC, there is no great shakes comeing to the congress.


32 posted on 08/28/2010 3:59:10 PM PDT by MSF BU (++)
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for the ping, brother.


33 posted on 08/28/2010 4:04:00 PM PDT by NFHale (The Second Amendment - By Any Means Necessary.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Thanks again! Great work.


46 posted on 08/28/2010 10:33:22 PM PDT by matthew fuller (2012: Bachman, Bolton, Brewer, Liz Cheney, Coburn, DeMint, Inhofe, Jindal, Palin and Pence.)
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To: InterceptPoint

bfl


51 posted on 08/29/2010 8:48:39 AM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: InterceptPoint

Hate to have to admit it, but WV is most likely NOT a toss up. Primary yesterday. Joe Manchin-D 49,961 out of a total of 90,600 votes. John Raese-R 38,119 out of a total of 53,372 votes. John has the money and the talent, but in state elections, WV just simply always goes Dem. They go R in national elections. Go figure. We will go to the mat for John, but it’s going to be an uphill climb. We sure could use Sarah down here.


53 posted on 08/29/2010 2:47:20 PM PDT by WVNan
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