2010 Race of the Day: On the Offense in NY-20- (Cook moves Gibson / NY20 to Toss-Up!)

In Upstate New York lies New York’s 20th Congressional District, a largely rural district currently held by vulnerable freshman Democrat Scott Murphy. Murphy narrowly won the seat by just over 700 votes on March 31, 2009 in a hard-fought special election after two-term Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand resigned to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate. Republican Chris Gibson, a retired Army Colonel, will challenge Murphy this November to take back the 20th District in a race the Cook Political Report rates as a “Toss-up.”

If you are a non-paying customer and go to Cook's report you will see he still rates it "Likely D". I am told, as reported by Walsh, that subscribers see the pre-release info that it is now rated "Toss-Up".

Any Freeper / Cook subscribers who can confirm this? This would be a huge

If he has given a double upgrade watch for the other lemming / pundits to call this "Toss-Up" too, maybe even one brave soul will call it "Leans R"! I've been saying all along that this will drift to the bright red shading by November.

It turns out the article was incorrect, a fat-fingered slob at NRCC or RNC passed on some bogus info that became part of the article.

Here are some “fun facts” on NY20 voter registration:
- Ratio of GOP : DEM = 60.4 : 39.6 - the largest advantage of Republican over Democrat of any District in NYS
- Ratio of GOP : DEM : OTH = 41 : 27 : 32 - far more Republican than the national tally (which is what, something like 30:35:35?)
- You read it right, not a typo, there are more “Neithers” than Democrats in this District. NY20 just simply is NOT a bastion of Democrat strength
- 27% is the lowest proportion of Democrats in any District in New York State
- 32% is the 2nd highest proportion of Independents (”Others”, “Neithers”) in New York State after NY01 in Long Island Suffolk County

What does this tell us? It tells us that NY20 is an easy District for the Republicans if - IF - the national trend isn’t blowing hard against the GOP, as it was in 2006 and especially 2008. With a tailwind in 2010, this should be an easy one for the Republicans to reclaim.

Anyone with an “R” beside their name could win NY20 this year, as it always used to be. It just so happens Chris Gibson isn’t just “anyone”, rather, he’s an outstanding candidate and he is a perfect fit for the District. Even “Toss Up” would seem a rather cautious assessment.

Here is the recent voting history in this District:
DATE Winner Party Vote Comments
11/00 Sweeney - R - 67.9% - As 22nd District, similar to current 20th District
11/02 Sweeney - R - 73.3%
11/04 Sweeney - R - 65.8%
11/06 Gillibrand - D - 53.1% - Final week, Sweeney blows up in Domestic Drunk/Abuse 911 - Call (and he still almost won!)
11/08 Gillibrand - D - 62.1% - Obama-mania, Pub candidate uninspiring
03/09 Murphy — D - 50.2% - GOP’s Tedisco is out-of-District, dysfunctional Albany rep, Sopranos character

It WILL go back to Pub this year, and Gibson will hold it for a long time.

Yes, but the silly pundits still call it “Likely D”. Silly, silly pundits.

Which makes me wonder, if they are wrong by this much on this District, are there perhaps a lot of other Districts that they are also way wrong on? Take Sabato for example, he has the GOP picking up 32 seats but NY20 is “Likely D”. I can only assume he hasn’t done enough research on this District. So maybe that +32 should be what, +52? +72?

I can hardly wait until Nov 2!!!

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