Posted on 05/12/2010 6:41:00 AM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
Mark Critz, a former aide to the late John Murtha and the Democratic nominee to replace him, has pulled out to a 6-point lead in the special election for Pennsylvania's 12th district, according to a new Susquehanna poll. Critz leads Republican Tim Burns 44%-38% with less than a week to go.
The Johnstown-based district in southwestern Pennsylvania has swing potential, despite the overwhelming Democratic registration advantage and Murtha's dominance in the district for the last 36 years. It's the only district that voted for both John Kerry and John McCain.
Critz is running as a continuation of Murtha -- a strategy that could be detrimental to his chances, as we've seen two incumbents in the last several days lose the nomination of their own party. And two more incumbents are in danger next Tuesday, as well, as Sens. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) and Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) go up against formidable challengers.
Both national parties are spending big on this race, as it could provide a boost in momentum for either. That includes Republicans, who haven't won a competitive House special election this cycle.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
It would be hard to spin a Dem victory in that District as anything less than a significant Republican setback.
It would certainly look that way to an outsider. You have to realize that at least in the eastern part of this district (Johnstown area) the Democrats have most voters by the shorthairs (i.e. their jobs...there are none if the MilPork companies that Murtha lured to town were to go elsewhere). If you live in Johnstown your choices to you look to be a)vote for the Dem and keep the Washington pork train a-rollin’, or b) watch this place turn into a ghost town within five years.
It’s the only way Murtha could have won last time after calling them all Racist Rednecks. Brown’s support is likely to come from the Washington County suburbs of Pittsburgh where many of the most affluent have fled.
Likely not enough of them thanks to gerrymandering.
Oh yeah. The masochists of PA. I remember that. This area must have a lot of once-a-monthers, right?
Agreed. It is a “significant setback” to the RATS that the Republican candidate is this close.
The district did go for McCain by 1%, and for Bush both times, but it is still fundamentally a Democrat seat.
Brown = Burns. The color Brown always comes to mind when the late Rep. Murtha is mentioned.
Remember it is these same brilliant voters that killed the steel industry.
The district is notable as the only congressional district in the nation that voted for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry in 2004 but went for Republican John McCain in 2008.
In short....the American voter has a very - repeat VERY - short attention span and an even shorter memory.
Lastly....it is such a long long way to November.
We shall see....
This election is next Tuesday, along with the primary to decide who will run in November against Critz, Burns or Russell (who lost to Murtha 2 years ago).
You have this backwards.
First, the people in this district have voted consistently for the dems, and the Rep(s) oblige the electorate.
The root of the problem is not the Rep (Servant), it is the people (Masters).Do not get your hopes up too high in November, cause it's payday for a lot of people who desire other people's money.
The district went for Kerry in 2004.
I’m trying to figure out if the district voting for McCain in ‘08 says something about the voters or McCain.
McCain carried this district.
If we can’t win a McCain district, then yes it is a setback.
Please take off your rose colored glasses.
These are districts where the people have been raised from birth to think "the Democrats are for the little guy". They think of politics the same way they think about sports. Their "Team" is the Demss. As long as the D's are winning, they are "winning".
These people have no clue, and no desire, to actually know what is going in DC. I have lived amoung these sorts of voters all my life. They have utterly no clue what is going on in the state capitol much less what is going on in DC. All they care about is "their team" wins, on election day, then they are happy.
These are districts where Identity politics trumps any sort of serious rational thought on the state of the country. For a Republican candidate to win these seats is virtually impossible. These are safe D seats and to think otherwise is absurd.
My mistake. It went for Bush in 2000, though. It’s a blue-collar Democrat kind of district, so it could be winnable, but it’s an uphill battle.
I’ll start the “Oh noes” when Gallup, Rassmussen or even Zogby have Burns down 6.
True enough. IIRC, Susquehanna is a university poll, with all the ideological baggage that accrues to that. Sort of like Quinnipiac, which almost always is a left-leaning outlier.
So take a good look at the facts on the ground instead of playing the same knee jerk game of doom and gloom on every thread.
This is a district that is safe D. To think otherwise indicates a total ignorance of the political facts on the ground
Or about Obama. Elections are won with turnout. The polls don’t measure the enthusiasm and motivation of the voters. I am not writing off Burns although Russell would have made a better candidate. Both Burns and Russell are running in the Rep primary for November during this same special election. It is possible that some Russell voters would prefer that Burns lose.
the “facts are on the ground” are that Obama’s approval rating is in the 30s and support for the healthcare bill is in the 30s.
If Republicans can’t capitalize on that in this district, then many marginal districts will be staying weith the Dems this year.
I would call that an enormous setback.
From reading the article, the poll sounds suspect..A poll of 400 people, and they give a 19 point lead to people who voted in the last 4 primaries, and - 6 to people who didnt ?.. I think they are skewing the likely voter base to fit their predelicts.. Plus, they still have 18 % undecided ?? Not worth the paper its printed on.
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