Posted on 04/17/2010 6:56:44 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
I guess being an arrogant SOB isn’t that amusing to the public.
I’ll feel comfortable when the communist, Constitution-shredders are brought to justice and their agenda is outlawed.
As a community organizer, 0kaka couldn’t have possibly made it to the Senate if Joe McCarthy was around.
“27%/45% is still way too high approval rating for a redistributionist statist appeasing dictator.”
Hey! The MSM is trying its best to get us to love Our Dear Leader. Give em’ a break! :>)
Notice one important thing is 45/54=99% which means only 1% undecided. Hes the most polarizing individual ever in the White House.
Forty five percent (45%) don't pay any income taxes. That's probably the 45% who approve of Obama.
Bracketing Tax Day. I guess the masses weren’t too impressed with boyobammie’s “tax cut.”
...buffering...buffering...buffering...
Thank You Pantywaist Pissant (i mean president) for continuing to create or save 2-3 million conservatives on a monthly basis. the way you are going there only will about 1 million liberals left in America.m Thanks so much and keep up the good work of showing what a true imbecile you really are. The marxist/socialist/fascist agenda will be ended even before it is started and the second term you so desparately seek will be served in a federal prison, right beside Reid, Pelosi, Dodd, Frank, Stupak and et al.
Let’s not get overly optimistic about this morning’s plunge in the Rasmussen Index. It’s most likely just one more example of statistical noise — a.k.a. “sampling error.”
Based on my attempt to deconstruct the data behind this morning’s three-day rolling averages, I’d say it’s unmistakeable that Big Ø had a terrible poll last night. His “raw number” for the SA’s probably fell as much as six or seven percent from the night before. At the same time, the raw number for the “strongly disapproves” seems to have gone up by about the same percentage.
Such a huge one-day shift in public opinion simply isn’t credible in the absence of some clear external factor. And yesterday’s news headlines don’t provide any such exogenous variable.
So what happened? Last night’s sample just skewed markedly toward respondents who don’t approve of the Annointed Øne. Purely a matter of random chance — the kind of movement that will always happen from time to time with small samples.
On the other hand, I won’t go so far as to say public opinion hasn’t shifted downward just a bit. I have been maintaining for some time that I thought the “true, underlying value” of the Rasmussen Index was ca. -10 to -11. Now it looks to me more like something between -11 and -12. But to be sure, we’ll need a few more days worth of data.
In the meantime, last night’s data will remain as a 1/3 component of the Rasmussen Index values for tomorrow (Sunday) and Monday morning. Therefore, Tuesday morning’s Index value should be telling. I expect it will tick up a bit — but I hope I’ll be wrong!
Outlook for tomorrow:
70% probability that the Index trades in a range between -18 and -15.
20% probability that it rises to -14 or higher.
10% probability that it falls to -19 or lower.
Can't prove it of course but there was no big seesawing of numbers before Ras received his threat.
45% at least somewhat approve, but 44% *strongly* disapprove, so the Abyss Index is at +1, right? Obama’s heading back over the abyss (as he was a month or so ago).
True, but there are real ignoramuses out there.
Case in point: at the Tea Party I attended Thursday, a young black motorist yelled at me that there were "three colors in the flag" and that it was about time "another color" had the power of the presidency.
I told him I didn't CARE one single BIT about the President's race or color--it was his POLICIES that SUCKED.
Thankfully, we had some black Americans protesting Hussein with us!
Now when I go in his store he occasionally goes off about what a "worthless dick" Obama is.
He's not the only Seattle lib I've seen that change of heart in.
I wonder if Carville still thinks the Republicans are peaking too early. He seems to think people will get tired of not liking Obama’s policies, and just start agreeing with him just because.
Are all 57 states being polled?
>> The “strongly approves” are all over the place, indicating their support is fickle. Bodes well for November. <<
I hope your diagnosis is right, but put me in the skeptical camp for the time being.
I just ran the standard deviations for both the “strongly approve” and the “strongly disapprove” series, starting with the passage of the health takeover bill on March 21. Here are the statistics:
Standard deviation of the “strongly approves” = 1.77%
Standard deviation of the “strongly DISapproves” = 1.10%
In other words, you’re correct that the “strongly approve” number is less stable than the “srongly disapprove” number. But is there enough difference to be significant? Maybe by November. But I can’t read the current numbers as showing a “fatal fickleness” among supporters of His Ø-ness.
On the other hand, the current numbers do give us a lot to be optimistic about. If we take this morning’s Rasmussen numbers at face value and assume an election were held today, then my electoral turnout model suggests a generic opponent opponent could beat the Øne by a margin of 56 to 44.
(The above calculation assumes the “strongly approves” and “strongly disapproves” would both turn out at a rate of 85%, while the “somewhats” on both sides would turn out at a rate of 60%.)
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